Betting on the NFL is a big deal, and it’s easy to see why. The action and drama every Sunday are great entertainment. But a lot of players who bet just go with their gut or their favorite team. If you want to get a little more serious and make better choices, you need to look past the win-loss record and dig into some numbers. You don’t have to be a math whiz, but understanding a few stats can give you a real advantage.
This article will walk you through some of the numbers. Looking at these will give you a much clearer picture of how a game will actually play out and help you find value and make a better bet.
Yards Per Play (YPP)
A lot of people look at total yards to see if an offense is good. That stat can be deceiving. A team can have a ton of yards because their defense can’t get off the field, so the offense just runs a lot of plays. A better way to judge a team’s real strength is to look at yards per play, or YPP. This stat shows you exactly how good a team is every time they snap the ball. A team that gets six yards per play is way better than a team that gets four.
It’s also smart to look at this from both sides of the ball. You want to see the difference between what a team’s offense gets per play and what their defense allows. If a team with a high offensive YPP is playing a team with a low defensive YPP, that’s a mismatch you can exploit.
Turnover Differential
Coaches have been talking about this stat for years: The turnover battle. Turnover differential is simply the number of takeaways a team’s defense gets (interceptions and fumble recoveries) minus the giveaways their offense commits. You want a positive number.
Win the turnover battle and you win the game. One study by PubMed Central found that the team that wins the turnover battle wins almost 70% of the time. Turnovers can stop a drive, give the other team a short field, and completely flip the script of a game. A team that’s good at protecting the ball and forcing mistakes is a good bet. A team that’s sloppy with the football can lose to anyone, no matter how good they are.
Red Zone Efficiency
Gaining a ton of yards between the 20-yard lines is great, but if you can’t turn those drives into actual touchdowns, it’s all for nothing. That’s where red zone efficiency comes into play. This stat is all about how often a team is able to punch it in once they get all the way down to the 20-yard line.
Field goals are all well and good, but when it comes down to it, settling for those three points can be downright devastating to a team’s chances of coming out on top. The teams that are consistently good at making the most of their red zone chances, and that’s a big part of the equation, are the ones that are usually able to cash in on their opportunities and walk away with the win. When you’re sizing up a matchup, be sure to check out both the offenses’ and defenses’ red zone numbers. A team with a knack for scoring touchdowns when it counts has a huge advantage over a team that’s decent enough on defense but lets its opponents get the job done when they get down to business.
Finding the Edge with Promotions
Once you’ve done all your research on the stats, it’s time to figure out where to put your bet. And let’s be honest, sportsbooks are always trying to get a piece of your action, which is why you’ll often find them dangling promotions and bonuses in front of you. That’s a pretty good way to squeeze a bit more out of your bankroll. You can find a bunch of different types of deals floating around out there from various sportsbooks, like the usual bonus bets or deposit matches, but they tend to be most active in the early days of the NFL season.
If you’re really trying to get the lowdown on what’s out there, websites like wsn.com do a great job of laying out how sportsbooks put together their welcome bonuses and promo codes for the NFL season. Just take a minute to scope out what’s available, and you can get a little more juice out of your bets before you even make your pick.
Don’t Sleep on Special Teams
Special teams often fly under the radar in football, but they can make all the difference in the end. What’s the kicker’s record from 50 yards and beyond? A reliable one makes him a real game-changer. A great punter, meanwhile, can flip the script and pin the opposition deep in their own half with a well-placed punt.
On the flip side, a special teams unit that’s prone to mistakes can be a real Achilles heel. Missed field goals and long punts getting returned for big gains can prove to be the difference between winning and losing a tight one. When evaluating a match-up, don’t get caught up in the glamour of offense and defense; take a close look at the special teams unit, too.
Conclusion
Forget the idea that you need to drown in spreadsheets to get an edge on the NFL. It’s simpler than that. The real story of a team isn’t hidden in some obscure algorithm; it’s right there in a few numbers that cut through the chatter.
What’s a team’s true horsepower, down after down? Look at yards per play. Who stays composed and who gets sloppy when the pressure’s on? That’s what turnover differential tells you. And maybe most telling of all, which team has the nerve to finish the job inside the 20-yard line? That’s red zone efficiency.
These numbers let you see past the hype and the headlines to what a team actually is. When you combine that genuine insight with a little legwork to find the best promotions a sportsbook is offering, you’ve fundamentally changed the game. You’re no longer just making a bet; you’re making a decision.
