When the No. 22 Texas Longhorns travel to Starkville this Saturday to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs, two programs on contrasting paths meet in a pivotal SEC showdown. Texas, sitting at 5–2 and riding a two-game win streak, aims to keep momentum alive despite recent offensive inconsistency. Mississippi State (4–3), on the other hand, is fighting to end a 15-game conference losing streak.
Historically, the teams have met five times, with Texas holding a narrow 3–2 series lead. The Longhorns won the most recent matchup 35–14 in Austin last season, marking their first ever conference victory as members of the SEC. Texas brings an elite defense ranked third nationally in points allowed (11.3 per game), but questions remain about its offensive efficiency and third-down struggles. The Bulldogs, under Jeff Lebby, counter with an improving offense averaging nearly 32 points per game but have been plagued by defensive lapses—especially against the run. With Texas seeking another much-needed road win and Mississippi State desperate for redemption in front of their home crowd, Davis Wade Stadium is set to host a must-win game for both programs.
Jameson McCausland (5-2)
It has officially been over a month since Texas played a game in Austin, and a final test awaits in Starkville before the Longhorns can return to the friendly confines of DKR on November 1st. Despite the rollercoaster ride this team has been on, a win on Saturday would give Texas a 3-1 record in the month of October and set the Longhorns up for meaningful football down the stretch.
Mississippi State is much improved over a year ago, and Jeff Lebby has shown he can move the ball against Pete Kwiatkowski in the past. It is asking a lot to expect the Texas defense to deliver another top-notch performance after being on the field for 80+ plays against Kentucky. The Bulldogs have a solid offense.
This leads us to the Texas offense, which is coming off its worst performance under Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian claims adjustments are being made and we will see a different offense on Saturday. I’ll take him at his word for now, but I still don’t see this being a game where the Texas offense has any type of breakout performance.
Give me the Longhorns in a close one, but my confidence level is extremely low.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Mississippi State 20
Aaron Carrara (4-3)
Given the Longhorns’ offensive problems, this is going to be a tough game to win on Saturday in Starkville. Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs are a much better team than Kentucky, which limited Texas to just eight (yes eight) first downs all game last week. Unless Texas finds a running game this week, Mississippi State will win this game, plain and simple. It looks like CJ Baxter will make his return after missing several games, and for Texas’ sake they need production from him and Wisner.
Adding to the woes of a stale offense will be the void on defense that safety Michael Taaffe leaves due to recent thumb surgery. Taaffe is expected to miss at least two games, with likely Derek Williams Jr. or Xavier Filsaime, or a combination of them, assuming the free safety role. Taaffe leads the Texas defense in tackles and his presence will be particularly missed on the road in a hostile environment.
The hope for the Longhorns is that Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense rises to the occasion yet again and limits a capable Mississippi State offense that averages just over 400 yards per game.
In the end I think Texas leaves Starkville disappointed, with the Bulldogs pulling off a narrow upset which leaves Steve Sarkisian looking for answers to an offense that has yet to find its identity.
Score Prediction: Texas 20, Mississippi State 23
Marc Henry (4-3)
Texas heads to Starkville for their second straight road test in SEC country. The Longhorns are coming off a 35–14 win over Mississippi State last season in Austin, but this time they’ll face a tough, hostile environment at Davis Wade Stadium.
The key for Texas will be getting the offense in rhythm early. Arch Manning needs to find his timing and confidence, while the Longhorns’ offense must establish more balance with a stronger emphasis on the run game.
Defensively, Texas has been lights out, flying to the ball, creating pressure, and keeping the team in games while the offense works to find its stride.
If the defense continues to dominate and the offense cleans up execution, Texas should have enough to grind out another win over the Bulldogs.
Score Prediction: Texas 21, Mississippi State 10
Devon Messinger (4-3)
In a strange way, this weekend’s game against Mississippi State might be the most important of the year. After a nightmare performance from the Texas offense last weekend, the team is desperate for a bounce-back showing. And while Mississippi isn’t the most intimidating opponent on the schedule, they stand as the gatekeepers to Texas’ next critical stretch of games.
If the offense can wake up, it might not be too late to salvage something special. But if it hits snooze, don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs manage to pull off what Kentucky couldn’t.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Mississippi State 20
Jacob Campos (4-3)
Take the under. That much be do know.
After saying all year “this is the week it comes together,” it’s time to admit: I don’t think it ever will. This offense is, point blank, bad.
Several groups are getting blamed right now – play-calling, offensive line performance, injuries in the running back room, quarterback inconsistency, lack of receiver separation, etc. It might just be a combination of all these issues, and they will likely need to be addressed after the season, but that’s not going to help this Saturday.
The defense can only do so much. And if the offense still can’t get going, I’m not sure this unit is ready to go 80-plus plays for a second straight week.
Score Prediction: Texas 13, Mississippi State 14
Mitch Lovell (5-2)
The Texas offense will find some life as the up-and-down season for the Longhorn offense continues. The defense will dominate behind multiple turnovers and Texas secures a much-needed conference road win in Starkville.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Mississippi State 14
