Staff Predictions: No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Texas Longhorns (11-1, 8-1) hope to win their final Big 12 Championship on Saturday in Arlington when they face Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3, 7-2). Texas is still in position to potentially land a spot in the College Football Playoff but they will need to contain OSU running back Ollie Gordon and the Oklahoma State offense.

It’s December football and the stakes are high. A Texas win leaves their bowl fate in the hands of the College Football Playoff Committee.

Will Texas continue their winning trend? Or will the surging Pokes upset the Longhorns and send them packing to the SEC with a loss? The HornSports Staff weighs in with their thoughts on the game and final score predictions.

Jameson McCausland (10-2)

It has been a long road for Texas to get back to Arlington, but the wait ends Saturday morning as the Longhorns look to ride off into the sunset with a Big 12 title. Oklahoma State has run hot and cold at various points this season. Wins over Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma were impressive, but losses to South Alabama, Iowa State and UCF were equally as puzzling.

The emergence of Ollie Gordon is the headline of the OSU offense. Texas has been excellent against the run this season and will face perhaps their toughest test so far on Saturday. Defensively, Oklahoma State has given up plenty of yards through the air and on the ground, but the new 3-3-5 defense debuted this season has been successful at turning teams over and limiting points in the redzone. 

The path to an OSU victory likely includes multiple Texas turnovers and self-inflicted errors. If the Longhorns play a relatively clean game on both sides of the ball, they should get the final laugh as they exit the Big 12.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 24

Aaron Carrara (11-1)

This game is personal for both teams. Like every team Texas has played this season, Oklahoma State wants to send the Longhorns to the SEC with an emphatic loss. Furthermore, the Big 12 front office wants Texas to lose on Saturday. The Pokes are a talented team and seem to be firing on all cylinders as of late, but Sark and his team will play “steady Eddy” football at Jerryworld and make things difficult for Gundy and the Cowboys. Texas is excellent at running the ball and will do it successfully against Oklahoma State’s 102nd ranked rush defense. Ollie Gordon is a talented back and will provide a challenge for the Texas defense, but I like the Longhorns to win this game by double digits – thanks to a solid defensive performance, en route to a Conference Championship.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 27

Ryan Swantkowski (11-1)

The time has come. Texas will take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship game with not only a Big 12 title on the line, but a potential playoff spot for the Horns as well. The matchup I will be paying most important to on Saturday is Texas’ defensive line versus RB Ollie Gordon II, who has over 1,500 rushing yards on the year to go along with 20 (!) rushing TD’s. The Cowboys key to success is no secret, as QB Alan Bowman has more interceptions than TD’s this season through the air, so I expect them to continue to use Gordon II in a major way. With this, though, I would expect some trickery by Mike Gundy and some unique plays to try and throw Texas off guard, especially guys such as Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. 

Regardless of this, I think Texas takes care of the Cowboys in a bit of a shootout, winning the Big 12 for the first time since 2009, and will then await to see if they make the CFB Playoff. Give me Quinn to continue to play well, the Texas WR’s to dominate per usual, and the defense to stand when it needs to. 

Score Prediction: Texas 40, Oklahoma State 27

Marc Henry (9-2)

The Big XII Championship matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State carries significant stakes for Texas, aiming for a title before their departure from the conference to the SEC. Offensively, maintaining aggression with a punishing running game and utilizing key weapons like Sanders, Worthy, and Mitchell will be crucial for quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Defensively, containing Ollie Gordon, the powerhouse in the Cowboys’ offense, is a top priority. Pressuring quarterback Alan Bowman and forcing turnovers will be essential for the Longhorns’ front seven. Expect an intense defensive effort as Texas looks to secure the championship and potentially position themselves for the College Football Playoff.

Score Prediction: Texas 42, Oklahoma State 17

Devon Messinger (10-2)

Here it is, the Big 12 Championship Game. With a win, Texas’ dreams of a College Football Playoff appearance are still alive. However, the Longhorns must beat an Ollie Gordon-led squad in Arlington first.

Overall, Texas’ strengths match up well with Oklahoma State. Led by T’Vondre Sweat & Byron Murphy up front, the Longhorns have the pieces in place to try to slow down Gordon on Saturday. Ultimately, the game may very well be decided by Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman. If the redshirt senior quarterback can remain consistent, rough waters may be ahead for the Longhorns.

Score Prediction: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 27

Dylan DeRaud (10-2)

Texas is in uncharted territory as we approach this Big 12 championship. This is the first time since 2018 that the Longhorns are in the conference title game, and the first time in program history that they’re in a position to make the college football playoff going into Championship Saturday. I’m saying all this to drive home the point that there is a lot on the line. Oklahoma State will look to play spoiler and give Texas a farewell loss that would sting for a long time.

On paper, Texas is a matchup nightmare for the Cowboys. The Longhorns are 5th in the nation in rush yards allowed per game and, on the offensive side, have some of the best playmakers in the country. If Ewers can stay calm under pressure, the defense holds Ollie Gordon to around 100 yards, and forces Alan Bowman to continue his trend of interceptions, the Longhorns will take home their first Big 12 title since 2009.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 24

Mitch Lovell (10-2)

It will be more of the same this week against Oklahoma St as it was last week vs Texas Tech. Ollie Gordon is a great RB but Texas proved once again no matter the RB, you aren’t running on Texas. On top of that it’s basically a Texas home game and the last chance for Texas to impress the CFP committee. Texas had a rough day in Stillwater last year and don’t think Sark and Quinn especially have forgot that. 

Score Prediction: Texas 48, Oklahoma State 14