Throughout the summer, HornSports will countdown the college football season by projecting season-ending records among Big 12 teams. Holding the number 8 spot, we look to the Appalachian Mountains and preview the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Why not higher?
This one will be controversial since most preseason publications have West Virginia higher than 8th in the Big 12. However, I just don’t see the hype. They are similar to Texas Tech in that they have a great offense, an average to poor defense, and seem to fall flat when it matters most. The defense that was subpar last year lost 8 starters this season. You don’t easily replace that talent.
Why not lower?
West Virginia might be bad, but they are not Kansas or Iowa State bad.
Bright spots
Skyler Howard had 3,145 yards passing last season which is low for a spread offense over 13 games. Howard also had 6 games where he threw for less than 200 yards. Howard threw for 532 yards against Arizona State in the Cactus Bowl which is why he is getting rightful preseason hype. He is a good quarterback that will be called upon to do much more this season.
Work left to do
As mentioned above, the defense is the sore spot of this team. Last year, they ranked 61st in total defense but lose 8 starters on the defensive side. Wendall Smallwood is with the Philadelphia Eagles which leaves Rushel Shell as the sole feature back of the offense. Skyler Howard can run but you don’t want your quarterback to be your leading rusher.
The biggest question looming over West Virginia is whether Dana Holgersen will be the head coach after this season. Quite frankly, he has been average at best in the Big 12. He hasn’t shown he can be a consistent winner in the conference. Oliver Luck hired Holgersen as the head coach in waiting because he believed the late Bill Stewart could not win a national championship. Holgorsen hasn’t come close to the BCS or College Football Playoff since joining the Big 12.
Prediction
West Virginia opens the season against the Missouri Tigers. The Tigers are coming off a rocky season but the campus and the team seem ready to move forward. Mizzou had a great defense last season but really bad offense. If the defense takes a slight step back but offense is average, it will be a better year in Columbia and I believe they can and will win in Morgantown.
Outside of the opening game, the Mountaineers travel to Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. They play 7 home games and 1 neutral site game (against BYU). It’s possible Holgorsen’s team surprises me and has a great year but I’m not betting on it. The Mountaineers won’t be going bowling and there will be a new head coach in Morgantown next season.
Final 2016 record prediction: 4-8 (3-6 Big 12)
