The No. 5 ranked Texas Longhorns (6-1, 2-1 SEC) look to bounce back from their home loss to Georgia as they take on the No. 25. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-2, 2-1 SEC) this weekend in Nashville. In the 30-15 loss to the Bulldogs, the Texas offense failed to get much going against a stout Kirby Smart Georgia defense. This week they will face a Commodore defense that ranks 40th nationally, and has an impressive win over Alabama.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is a playmaker and will be a dual-threat force Pete Kwiatkoski’s top-ranked defense will have to defend. He ranks 12th among FBS signal-callers in passing efficiency and has 470 rushing yards on the season. The Commodores are ranked for the first time since 2013 and hold an all-time series lead over the Longhorns 8-3-1. Saturday’s showdown in Nashville is anything but a “gimmee” for the Longhorns. They must find their offensive identity and Quinn Ewers must execute if they intend to leave FirstBank Stadium with a win.
Does Vanderbilt have what it takes to beat their second top five ranked team this season? Will the Texas offense find their rhythym and leave with a much-needed win headed into a bye week? Our staff gives their score predictions and thoughts on how this must-win game plays out.
Jameson McCausland (6-1)
The blueprint for how Vanderbilt wants this game to play out has already happened. The Longhorns only need to flip on the tape against Alabama to see how the Commodores dominated the time of possession and money downs against the Crimson Tide en route to a big upset.
Texas must have a fast start in this game after back-to-back games of lackluster first-quarter play. A lot of eyeballs will be on Quinn Ewers against a Vanderbilt defense that ranks in the bottom half of the country in most defensive categories.
Defensively for Texas, this game is all about discipline and making sure Diego Pavia does not turn into Superman. Pavia is not an elite passer or a runner with blazing speed, but he has a lot of moxie and is a playmaker.
Overall, Vanderbilt will be a much stiffer test than many Texas fans would have expected a few months ago, but if the Longhorns continue to play well defensively they should be able to slowly pull away in Nashville. I don’t think this Vanderbilt defense is very good and Texas should be able to rack up yardage and points.
Score Prediction: Texas 38, Vanderbilt 21
Aaron Carrara (6-1)
On Saturday we will find out if the Longhorns are as tough, focused and resilient as we thought they were through the first seven weeks of the season. Georgia came out with a tremendous game plan to stop Quinn Ewers last week and Vanderbilt will attempt to emulate that plan as much as possible.
The Texas offense must find a groove early on and set the tempo for this game – this relies on solid play from the offensive line, which we saw in every game except last week. I expect Ewers to bounce back to old form and have a big day through the air which should quell the critics for a while.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has the capacity to create and make plays and the Texas defense will need to limit his big gainers. Also, Pavia has a tendency to slip out of tackles, which puts the task on the Longhorns to wrap-up when making first contact. Throw in the fact that Vandy leads the SEC in 3rd down conversions which makes time of possession in this game critical. Texas gives up just 237 yards of offense per game and I expect them to have another successful day in Nashville.
Taking nothing away from a solid Vanderbilt program, this is simply a must-win game for the Longhorns and they get the job done on the road.
Score Prediction: Texas 41, Vanderbilt 20
Marc Henry (6-1)
Texas faces a crucial road matchup against Vanderbilt, where reclaiming control of the line of scrimmage will be key after a tough 30-15 loss to Georgia. To get back in the win column and keep their SEC Championship hopes alive, the Longhorns must prioritize protecting quarterback Quinn Ewers by keeping him in a clean pocket and executing on third down. Establishing a strong running game will also be essential to maintaining offensive balance and controlling the tempo. These elements will be critical for Texas as they look to bounce back.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Vanderbilt 14
Devon Messinger (6-1)
On Saturday, the Longhorns will look to right the wrongs from last weekend’s game against the Georgia Bulldogs. However, Vanderbilt has been no slouch this season, beating Alabama at home just over two weeks ago.
In Nashville, expect the Texas offense to make some music. After a string of disappointing starts to games, Georgia was certainly a wakeup call. The Longhorns no longer have much room for error, but I think that the early season tumble could actually prove to be beneficial. Quinn Ewers and the offense know that they can no longer simply skate by. Consequently, I would expect a big game from the Longhorns quarterback, as well as the offensive line that did not have the best of performances last Saturday.
Defensively, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Davila will test the athleticism of Texas’ front seven with his legs. As a result, expect Texas linebacker Anthony Hill Jr to play the role of spy quite often. Otherwise, keep an eye out on the injury status of safety Andrew Mukuba, who suffered an injury against Georgia. If Mukuba is unable to play against Vanderbilt, keep an eye out on the Texas secondary which has played well above expectations this season.
Score Prediction: Texas 41, Vanderbilt 17
Dylan DeRaud (5-2)
After a humbling loss to Georgia, Texas now finds themselves poised for a revenge game in Nashville as they take on Vanderbilt. With how the Longhorns looked offensively last week, Ewers will be ready for the opportunity to bounce back. I also want to highlight the Texas offensive line in this matchup. After being dominated in the trenches, I feel that this game will be personal for Kelvin Banks, Jake Majors and the rest of the offensive line.
On the other side of the football, the Texas secondary looked rock solid for most of the game. Creating turnovers and forcing errant throes by Carson Beck. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is a playmaker with the ball in his hands. However, he’s not the same type of passer as Beck is and he prefers to make plays on the ground. Which might not end well with Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill waiting amongst the weeds in the Longhorn front seven.
Score Prediction: Texas 42, Vanderbilt 24
Mitch Lovell (6-1)
This isn’t the Vanderbilt we’ve come to know historicall… they beat Alabama for a reason. The Commodores lead the SEC in time of possession, which means Texas better take advantage of the opportunities they get. Quinn Ewers is facing the most scrutiny he has faced during his time at Texas and I expect him and the offense to bounce back. The Longhorn will force a couple turnovers but Vandy will fight and claw for 3 quarters before Texas pulls away.
Score Prediction: Texas 28, Vanderbilt 17