what to expect Sat

[Sirhornsalot]

LV lines are set by very smart folks.  They are then bet by very smart folks.

If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias.  But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks.  They find very few.

These people are mentally sick. There is a reason we have Gamblers Annonymous.

Gamblers, by definition, are not smart people. Whoever told you they were, lied to you.

There are very smart folks on this board. Many of whom accurately predicted the Sugar Bowl while Vegas was hugging a toilet.

The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens.  20% of the time.

So you're saying Georgia had even better odds to beat Texas . . than say, LSU? lol

Do you deal with your wife the same way? I mean, do you explain how she's wrong and Vegas is right? lol

 

[java]

Good post. 

What I expect Saturday is Oger will get so frustrated he won’t be able to speak English.

He speaks English?

 

[psybj]

Holy crap you would make a great odds maker!! Start sending me your numbers so I can make some extra money. ?

Sorry but I know that those guys make lines that I cannot beat.

 

[Wayne]

Sorry but I know that those guys make lines that I cannot beat.

Tom Herman is 13-2-1 against the spread as an underdog with a 11-5 record. 

 

[psybj]

I'll grant that the Vegas' lines are set by very smart people.  The smart folks from Vegas set a line and establish rules so that they only have to pay out 90 cents on every dollar spent.  If there is an anomaly in their line for whatever reason, they take the game off the board and reestablish a line.  There are a couple of ways they do this.  One way is that the house has a limit on the size of the wager you can make on any given game.  If you want to exceed that limit, you either have to get approval from the house or you have to wait until the house resets the line (this is to ensure the house makes its money).  If there is an injury or something else that could impact the game, the house just takes the game off the board and no more money is allowed to bet on the game.  

Additionally, the game still has to be played. So if lsu really has a 70% chance of winning they are going to lose 3 times out of ten.  And they  don't play 10 games.  The sample size of games that could have an anomaly is limited and you can't tell anything from a small sample size. 

If the sports betting market was pure (i.e. no limits on the size of wager at a certain point spread or money line), smart money would be in the market.  Smart money is in the market but its the house with its 10% take.  Smart money is on Wall Street, Main Street and Silicon Valley, etc..  I'm sure anecdotally there are many people who make money gambling on sports but they are doing it at the margins.  I still haven't heard of private equity or a hedge fund hiring quants and trying to beat Vegas at sports gambling...  But they do own a couple of casinos.     

P.S.  What I'm saying is that smart people (writ large) don't bet on sports against the house except for entertainment purposes.  There are smart people with egos who try it when they are young but they usually become the house or move to poker. 

Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%.

And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting.  Many use computers and crunch numbers.  Not many are successful.

As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number"  After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line.

I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. 

The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts.  Many serious BJ players followed him.

The problem with poker is that the house has much more $$$$$$$$$$$ to lose than poker players.  BJ is a great option until they figure the player out and he is toast most places.  VideoPoker/Slots were wonderful for awhile but casinos are getting wise to that too. (don't beat the machines, beat the casinos which send huge comps to get players to come in.  Marketing and Gambling weren't connected for a long time, made for a great sweet spot.  Has now been fixed most places)

Yes, LSU has a 70% chance of winning and might lose.  Am very much looking forward to a real thriller.

QUESTIONS:

> Can Sam and the depleted UTx RB corps move the ball on the ground vs that D?

> Can the soft LSU OL hold off the UTx blitz packages?

 

[primal defense]

Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%.

And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting.  Many use computers and crunch numbers.  Not many are successful.

As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number"  After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line.

I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. 

The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts.  Many serious BJ players followed him.

The problem with poker is that the house has much more $$$$$$$$$$$ to lose than poker players.  BJ is a great option until they figure the player out and he is toast most places.  VideoPoker/Slots were wonderful for awhile but casinos are getting wise to that too. (don't beat the machines, beat the casinos which send huge comps to get players to come in.  Marketing and Gambling weren't connected for a long time, made for a great sweet spot.  Has now been fixed most places)

Yes, LSU has a 70% chance of winning and might lose.  Am very much looking forward to a real thriller.

QUESTIONS:

> Can Sam and the depleted UTx RB corps move the ball on the ground vs that D?

> Can the soft LSU OL hold off the UTx blitz packages?

I hate to agree with you, however those are my two questions for the game.

 

[oldhorn2]

.....sighhhh....the line is not set according to who the wise guys think will win....it is set to what the dumbass bettors will bet. All the wise guys want is equal betting both sides.

 

[psybj]

.....sighhhh....the line is not set according to who the wise guys think will win....it is set to what the dumbass bettors will bet. All the wise guys want is equal betting both sides.

The line is established by the bookies, then a few top pro bettors are allowed to bet at it.  It is then moved before being put up for the general public.

If Joe know-nothing makes a big bet, the line probably don't change.  If a known guy makes a smaller bet, the line might change.

Sometimes the house takes a position and holds the line, taking more action on one side.

The line that develops over the week is the result of the bookies and the best handicappers.  Due to their accuracy the resulting line is quite difficult to beat.  If you think it is wrong, bet your lunch money or house against it.

In short that line is the best available estimate, before the game, of the outcome of the game.

 

[Thomass1]

I do apologize for bumping the thread but I just wanted to say that it was a phenomenal game back in 2019 and nowadays you can rarely see this kind of game. I remember when I watched this game in 2019 I was playing poker from my phone as well. I played it through service https://newslotgames.net/casinos/ca.html and I play it since now as it has great customer service. Today I want to re-watch that game and to concentrate a bit more as I was not attentive back in 2019. Hope I will feel new emotions watching this game again.

 

[JohnAvery]

I do apologize for bumping the thread but I just wanted to say that it was a phenomenal game back in 2019 and nowadays you can rarely see this kind of game.