Watson - Advanced Offensive Metrics

[o5prey]

So I was really against the Watson hire - I'd seen quite a few of his games while the Nebraska OC, and I wasn't really thinking his last two years at Louisville looked very good considering he had Bridgewater to work with.

This morning I had a little time to look at things more deeply - and spent some time looking at some of the advanced statistics the last two years.

2013

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2013

Overall Rank #25

2012

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2012

Overall Rank #3

Nebraska

2010

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2010

Overall Rank #45

2009

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2009

Overall Rank #74

2008

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2008

Overall Rank #22

2007

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2007

Overall Rank #40

Those numbers are certainly interesting to me.

My takeaways -

Last year (2012) was a really efficient year for the Louisville Offense

He seems to have been doing a better job at Louisville than at Nebraska (but did have Bridgewater)

I'm not excited by the hire, but the above gives me pause that it's not so bad as I was thinking it was from conventional statistics and my recollection of his offensive squads at Nebraska and Colorado.

 

[txscallywag]

Great post. Thank you for posting actual information.

To piggyback off of the 2013 season in your post.

Rankings:Lousville 2013, (Texas 2013)

Offensive Efficiency = 5 (78)

First Down Rate = 8 (72)

Available Yards = 8 (81)

Explosive Drives = 14 (78)

Methodical Drives = 21 (63)

Value Drives = 6 (63)

Offensive Strength of Schedule = 98 (6)

 

[o5prey]

Txxcallyway

What does the metric there - Offensive Strength of Schedule mean? Does that read as the quality of defenses that Louisville faced was 98th in the nation? as in they were weak?

 

[HookemHorns]

Louisville scored 35 points a game we scored 29

 

[o5prey]

FEI is looking at offensive efficiency / which really matters more than just how many points are scored per game.

 

[HookemHorns]

On second look, wth is offensive efficiency? That's a high number? What does that stat mean?

 

[o5prey]

I think that is by team ranking - but Offensive Efficiency doesn't correspond to FEI (which is essentially offensive efficiency) that had Louisville at #25 this year, so I don't know.

Link to those stats txscallywag?

 

[Lukus Alderman]

While I'm not a huge fan of him, the one thing that I've noticed about his offenses that I like is that it seems like he runs an offense based on the strength that he has. For instance, when he has good runningbacks, it seem as if he tends to base his offense around running the ball. When he has a good quarterback, he runs an offense around passing the ball. In other words, it doesn't seem like he tres to fit a square peg into a round hole.

 

[txscallywag]

Click on your 2013 link.

 

[txscallywag]

While I'm not a huge fan of him, the one thing that I've noticed about his offenses that I like is that it seems like he runs an offense based on the strength that he has. For instance, when he has good runningbacks, it seem as if he tends to base his offense around running the ball. When he has a good quarterback, he runs an offense around passing the ball. In other words, it doesn't seem like he tres to fit a square peg into a round hole.

I think we have good if not excellent RBs, hopefully we'll have a decent or at least better QB. It'll be interesting to say the least.

 

[o5prey]

So that rank of 98 is actually quite bad, correct?

 

[txscallywag]

So that rank of 98 is actually quite bad, correct?

I copied this from the link in case someone can explain this better.

OSOS: Offensive Strength of Schedule, the likelihood that an elite offense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average OE rating against each of the defenses faced by the given team.

I take this as meaning that the overall rating of opposing defenses were not so good, but I looked at the same rankings for other teams and am now lost. I don't see how Texas ranks 6th in facing quality opposing defenses.

 

[HookemHorns]

So that rank of 98 is actually quite bad, correct?

That's how I read it. Not a reflection of the offense per se. It's a reflection of the quality of opponent they faced

 

[HookemHorns]

I copied this from the link in case someone can explain this better.
OSOS: Offensive Strength of Schedule, the likelihood that an elite offense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average OE rating against each of the defenses faced by the given team.

I take this as meaning that the overall rating of opposing defenses were not so good, but I looked at the same rankings for other teams and am now lost. I don't see how Texas ranks 6th in facing quality opposing defenses.

This measures the chances that top offenses will have have success against the same opponents.

 

[Topstarr]

Well I take the numbers as good for Watson. Just think I just said something good for Watson offense.

 

[BrokenGlassRepublucan]

I think we have good if not excellent RBs, hopefully we'll have a decent or at least better QB. It'll be interesting to say the least.

I'm not sure our QB play could be any worse. Against Ok St, Baylor, and Ore, Case's QB Rating was 29.8, 4.3, and 13.7, respectively. As a frame of reference, his QBR against OU was 83.9.

 

[Hoekem]

Between now and Spring he can study (alongside Charlie) the power spread which means in the Spring he can implement this offense, tweak it, and to see where he may be able to expand it. Then he has the summer to fine tune it.

He has to have an O that fits the skills of his current roster.

Pellini handcuffed the guy at NU and they might not have been able to recruit spread type players to Louisville. Whereas in Texas a lot of these guys will come just because its there lifelong dream to play here...I realize Baylor, A&M, and Tech will be in their ear but they will get a chance starting in the fall to see for themselves.

Worst case scenario is we're Mich St south...I seem to recall they were pretty good this year.

Yards per play Louisville was 15th in the country.