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View from the Cheap Seats-Pre Season 2014
This was the biggest offseason since 1997. . . on 5 January THE University hired a new football coach for the 1st time in nearly 2 decades.
As Eddie Murphy said . .. . ."there's a new sherrif in town. . . .. and his name is Charlie F Strong" (CFS for short). Over 16 years we saw Mack restore TEXAS to national prominence through 2009 only to "lose focus" and let the next 4 years slip through his hands. CFS was one of the finest defensive coordinators in the country and wears 2 Natty rings to prove it. In the 2008 title game, his Florida defense would hold OU, averaging over 50 points a game to a measly 14 points. He would then embarrass Florida as a Head Coach at Louisville by drubbing them as heavy favorites in the Sugar Bowl then turn around a year later and spank Miami in the Citrus Bowl. .. . .payback for 2 programs that should have hired him perhaps? Who knows but he was my top choice for the HC spot here and I think TEXAS got a great one (we'll get that out of the way upfront, I am a bigtime CFS homer)
The number 1 issue that TEXAS needed to address with the CFS hire was a change in culture. . look no further than who he brought to TEXAS .. . .coaches loyal to him but with a reputation as great teachers. Important since the #2 problem at TEXAS was player development. Talent abounds but there was a clear lack of turning 4 stars into All Stars in recent years. No coach sent a louder message with his hring than CFS stealing Joe Wickline from Oklahoma State. And if there is one offense in the conference I'd like to copy schematically, it's OSU. Another surprise hire was bringing home Les Konnieg who has a reputation as a great teacher but has become a very pleasant surprise on the recruiting trail.
CFS brought Pat Moorer with him from UL to be the S&C coach. . .or said another way: BAD COP
Most controversial hire? Easy, Shawn Watson the OC. . .yes I realize Wick has that title too but I'll wager that was more a move to keep from paying OSU.. . . and yes, I have no doubt Wick will have input into the O, especially the run game. . .but this will be Watson's O and he'll run the offense CFS wants .. .and like GD. . .he will be the scapegoat with the nintendo crowd. . .more on that in our "expectations" section.
Hired 5 January 2014 and very late in the recruiting process, CFS did well keeping critical recruits like Jarrod Heard and Derick Robinson in the fold as well as bringing recruits Poona Ford and Chris Nelson, who he'd recruited at Louisville to shore up depth at DT. He would also get late commitments from Rodrick Benard, Edwin Freeman (who was considered a long time TEXAS lean), JUCO TE Blake Whitney and 2 OLs, Alexander Anderson who is pushing for early PT as well as Elijah Rodriguez. Neither OL was highly rated but both very much in the mold of kids Wickline likes to work with and grow into studs. More than fair to say that it is a "solid" class but not a spectacular one nor the type that Long horn fans are used to seeing.
CFS wasted no time with culture change, laying down some of the toughest rules and standards of any program not named Army/Navy/Air Force. And it did not take long for push to come to shove and there need to be enforcements . Joe Bergeron was the guy I thought would thrive under CFS but he quickly was in the dog house and even got booted from spring drills. . . 2 players would be dismissed from the team due to a legal issue . .ultimately Jalen Overstreet and Bergeron would move on. Daje Johnson and Desmond Harrison would hang on by the skin of their teeth but will miss the 1st game. Between that, Moorer's legendary workouts and a far more physical set of spring and fall drills. . . .Message sent . ..
NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN and his name is CHARLIE F STRONG .. . . .
So here we are today, 4 days from Kickoff. What should we expect to see this year from the team?
EXPECTATIONS
My first BGO of the season (blinding glimpse of the obvious). . . this team will win with defense. Our strongest unit is the DL where we have both talent and depth. I project we see them used in waves to wear out opposing OLs and disrupt timing based offenses. This will be important because our secondary is questionable and certainly not close in talent to the DL. Face it, we started a walk on for the Spring Game though he does project as part of the 2 deep so he's not a complete slouch. The emergence of true Freshman Jason Hall may allow Mykelle Thompson to play CB, a position which seems to fit his talent. The star of the secondary is Quandre Diggs.
Between the 2 is a LB corps that has the potential to be very good. . . assuming 5 Star Jordan Hicks can stay healthy. He's the best LB on the 40 since DJ turned pro. Steve Edmond mans the middle and appears to have locked up the job from Dalton Santos. Both should benefit from another year's worth of experience and a new defensive style. On the outside Peter Jinkins starts but look for Naason Hughes to potentially be "1st guy off the bench". . . .
Not worried about the D overall .. . .but the concern is on the other side of the ball.
Some fans already hate it . ..the offense is going to be DELIBERATE . .. .they will come to the line, they will use motion. ..they will milk every second off the clock. . .forget 80-90 plays a game. . .we'll be lucky to average 65
The video game/basketball on grass crowd will hate it, they will hate it when we win, they will blame it when we lose. Shawn Watson will be hated, he will make Greg Davis look loved. But here's the problem. . .the offensive style is set by CFS. . .not Watson. This is the offense Charlie F*ing Strong wants and he doesn't care what Baylor or TT or OU runs.
Gotta get that out of the way now. . .it will save some headaches down the road. . .last year Louisville was #2 in the nation in averaging 2:55 minutes per drive.. . behind wishbone Navy (yes, got that off Numbers that matter on LHN. . .hey, I didn't say this stuff was original). We will shorten the game, wear out their D while keeping ours ready to go. This is the way CFS wants it. . .this is what Watson runs well.
So I wanted to review some key stats we should watch since we aren't going to be breaking NCAA scoring records ala GD. What you want to look for is 8-9-10 play drives or more. UL was #1 in the nation in scoring drives of 80 yards or more. We will be looking for a 3rd down conversion rate of over 47% which would have been good for Top 25 in the nation last year. . .UL was #2 FSU #3.
UL was also #1 in least number of drives ended with turnovers, less than 7% . .. UL did not beat themselves last year. Another stat not mentioned on LHN but will be critical this year, percentage of drives that end with a score (for our team, too many pick 6's in 2013) and % of drives that lead to a TD. If you are going to beat basketball on grass, you need to put the pressure on them by scoring, especially TDs when you do have the ball. In 2012 we scored on 45% of our drives. . 2013 fell to 35%. . .45%+ is the target. Another key stat for both units, Red Zone Scoring and RZ TD scoring. . .of course this is key every year. . .in the Red Zone, punch it in the end zone for the O. . . .in the RZ .. .force a FG for the D.
Last year O 57% TDs 42 attempts D 52%. Contrast that to 2008 (granted great O) 76% on 68 tries while the D was 48%. We are going to have to get into the Red Zone more and we are going to have to score more TDs. . ..
Some of the key stats I'll be watching and reporting on this year. . . .
In terms of the season, it is very possible we go 8-4 and have a better team than last year. Our schedule is brutal, one of the toughest in the nation. I do not see anyone boat racing us. I don't see us running it up on many either. We need our D to improve upon it's 25 ppg average from last year. . though keep in mind that number is padded by 7 pick sixes thrown by Case. Getting into the 22 ppg range should be good for top 25 in the nation, if CFS and Vance can get us in the teens, 10-2/9-3 is very possible.
Our O averaged right at 30 ppg last year, in this offense 30-32 for the season, 28-30 in conference is what the Cheap Seats thinks is the target. This will be a year where stats like Time of Possession, 3rd down conversions and % of scoring drives be more important stats to review.
Schedule from toughest to weakest (IMHO of course): I see these being 3 very distinct groups.
1-4, these games are tough. Going 0-4 of this group would not be impossible.
5-7, these are games we should win but are not to be taken lightly. Bring your A game
8-12 teams we out talent. Doesn't mean we couldn't lose but we shouldn't lose
1 UCLA best team on the schedule, looking to make an early statement, best or 2nd best QB we'll face this year. Defense lost some talent but Mora coaches up his D. Sorry, calling this one a loss
2 OU-Duh it's OU it's always a war. They hold serve from last year. Their key is if Knight can replacate his Bama performance and they can get a running game going. Of course this is a game where turnovers usually tell the tale. A true rivalry game in that the team with the best talent doesn't always win. My biggest concern, 4th in a line of BYU, UCLA and Baylor. . . toss up unless OU's offense is for real
3 Baylor-2nd best QB we face all year and he's good. basketball on grass offense, if they score early, TEXAS isn't built to come from behind. Game in our house. This will be a huge test for the Watson "4 corners" offense. Leaning win at DKR. Think UCF showed Charlie the secret last year
4 KSU-Bad things happen on the road. Toughest game of the 2nd half of the year. This is a good, well coached team with a talented dual threat QB. Sorry, think this is a loss
5 BYU-This is the 1st real test. Another well coached team. Think they hang around for 3 quarters but in the end, our talent wins out. . wouldn't be shocked if we fail to cover the line. Win
6 TT-Toss up here with OSU but weird fapping stuff happens in Lubbock. Win win one and drop one of 6&7
7 OSU-Also on the road though our history in Stillwater better than Lubbock. Gundy is missing a bunch of talent.
8 WVU- Dana hanging onto his job by a thread. Win
9 TCU Too much inner turmoil. WVU and TCU will fight for enough wins to go bowling Win
10 ISU Battling with WVU and TCU for enough wins for a bowl Win
11 KU Tempted to rank them below UNT. For all of Charlie Weiss rep. .hasn't done much Win
12 UNT Coming off their best year but lost too many starters. Win
Yes, the optimist in me is seeing 9-3. . . the pessimist says Ash goes down and we're likely a 7-5 type team.
Will re-rank the BigXII every week
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