Statistical Look at Watson / UL Offense

[HornEsch]

Obviously stats do not tell the whole story. However it is a more objective way to look at things. For this look I took the rankings / information for Baylor since they were the number one overall, the 2 teams in the MNC game, Louisville, and Texas for this past season.

First off Louisville did not really have a bad season offense wise. However one does have to take into consideration the teams they played.

Their strength was obviously the pass at 314 yards per game. When you have a Heisman level QB, that is to be expected. While rushing they were way down the ranking (86th) at only 146.8 yards per game.

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 1000, align: center]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD]Off. Rank[/TD]

[TD]Team[/TD]

[TD]Yds/Play[/TD]

[TD]Rush YPG (rank)[/TD]

[TD]Pass YPG (rank)[/TD]

[TD]Total YPG[/TD]

[TD]Points PG (rank)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]Baylor[/TD]

[TD]7.49[/TD]

[TD]259.7 (13)[/TD]

[TD]359.1 (5)[/TD]

[TD]618.8[/TD]

[TD]52.4 (1)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]Florida St.[/TD]

[TD]7.67[/TD]

[TD]203.1 (28)[/TD]

[TD]315.9 (14)[/TD]

[TD]519.1[/TD]

[TD]51.6 (2)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11[/TD]

[TD]Auburn[/TD]

[TD]6.92[/TD]

[TD]328.3 (1)[/TD]

[TD]173.0 (106)[/TD]

[TD]501.3[/TD]

[TD]39.5 (12)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]Louisville[/TD]

[TD]6.70[/TD]

[TD]146.8 (86)[/TD]

[TD]314.0 (16)[/TD]

[TD]460.8[/TD]

[TD]35.2 (25)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]64[/TD]

[TD]Texas[/TD]

[TD]5.29[/TD]

[TD]196.2 (36)[/TD]

[TD]212.5 (79)[/TD]

[TD]408.7[/TD]

[TD]29.3 (65)[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

Things of note...

• Their offense would have ranked 4th in the Big 12
  
• Despite being a heavy pass team the Yds/Play are a bit low
  

Now if we look at what this could mean mixing the talent we have at Texas it could be a decent offense, IF a few things happen.

Pros

• We have WAY better running backs that UL
  
• The OL while not great is improved and showing signs of being solid
  
• Solid/Great talent at the WR position
  

Concerns

• QB (Heisman level to ???)
  
• No Tight End which he likes to use
  
• Not really a spread guy
  
• Inconsistent Up-Tempo non Up-Tempo
  

What would have to happen at Texas for him to be successful...

1. Pray Ash can play and/or Swoopes/Heard are ready to take that big step.

2. Develop is offense around our current strength (running).

3. Find a TE or Flex to beat teams over the middle.

4. Build the offense around the spread not the Pro-Style.

I am not saying I like this potential hire for the OC. Just trying to look at some of the things about what his offense did this past year when compared to others. Honestly I hope UL hires Watson as HC

THOUGHTS?

 

[CCausey11]

Esch, good information there. People are freaking but these aren't bad numbers.

Your concerns at the bottom are right on. Those screaming for a spread guy need to remember what we have currently on the team and what our strengths are. Mack bouncing from spread guy to power guy to spread guy did our offensive players and recruits no favors. We don't have the team right now to go all Baylor on everybody. Let's all relax and let this thing play out, Art Briles doesn't put up Baylor numbers for a few years if he was the coach.

 

[TheContractor]

I dont care about the numbers as much. I just dont think he is that good of an OC. I dont think he can hang with a Briles, Gundy, Kingsbury, etc.

 

[johnabeard]

was Louisville 23 -3 the last two seasons, with a huge win over florida last year. Nobody heard of teddy bridgewater till that big win and quess who was his qbs coach and oc coordinator. Shawn Watson

He ran a system that worked in Louisville, doesn't mean he cant change that system to fit in big 12

 

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

They were in a bad conference and had arguably the top QB in the country.

Look at his work at CU and Nebraska for a good gauge of his abilities.

 

[HornEsch]

They were in a bad conference and had arguably the top QB in the country.
Look at his work at CU and Nebraska for a good gauge of his abilities.

Just to play devils advocate, you can't always go by past stops to judge where they are now or where they can go. If that was the case Saban would have never made it out of Michigan State.

Yes he was in a bad conference, but he was also not at a school that had the collective talent that Texas has (even now) outside the great QB.

My concern is the type of offense matched with the primary offense ran by the high schools in the state. This was part of the failure we had when Mack tried to go from the spread. Now maybe he will change to match that. Maybe, one of the reasons Wyatt is being retained is to be CO-OC still and mix the spread in. Who knows?

Is it the hire I would want? No.

However I will trust Strong in this. He knows what is at stake better than any of us.

 

[Davharjac]

I dont care about the numbers as much. I just dont think he is that good of an OC. I dont think he can hang with a Briles, Gundy, Kingsbury, etc.

He won't have to hang w them if he is here. You're thinking about typical big 12 D. Coach Strong's staff will bring a new defensive identity that will place an emphasis on being physical w those schools. I am not sure he gets the job, but if he does lets not overreact. What he did at Louisville resembled what this Texas team did when it was at it's best. I am hoping for the spread as will, but I will trust Coach Strong's process. We are in day 2 folks.

 

[JMagana]

One concern for me is level of competition he played this last year at Louisville? I trust but a little concerned.

 

[hornag]

Maybe we can get "red" to ask Gruden to be a position coach for us on offense. LOL

 

[Hoekem]

To me the argument of who they played doesn't hold water...it's not like they were all 4-5 stars. The fact that Baylor avg 0.7 yds more per play is the true stat. I agree w/ the OP.

 

[TEXAS FAN]

He will be comeing to ut

 

[doc longhorn]

Watson is not coming to UT - relax.

 

[Bevostuntdouble]

I dont care about the numbers as much. I just dont think he is that good of an OC. I dont think he can hang with a Briles, Gundy, Kingsbury, etc.

Haha lets not go crazy putting proven Gundy and Briles in the same idea as Kingsbury... Gundy is damn solid, recently... Briles had the most penalized team in football and proved in their bowl game that he has ZERO discipline in regard to his team(18 penalties for 135 yards)... Kingsbury is GREAT for tech but after one year I'm not ready to add him to that convo. All IMO.

 

[beevomav]

So I just got through with one post where Coach Strong doesn't give a shit about losing recruits. Now he has a shitty OC?

I don't know how much of this shit I can stand.

I thought this was a board about support Texas, not attacking a coach who has been on the job for a couple of days?

 

[SFlonghorngirl]

Watson is not coming to UT - relax.

Please let it be Doc!!! I want at spread offense!!!

 

[GetHooked]

Please let it be Doc!!! I want at spread offense!!!

I want a spread in South Texas. Maybe grow some citrus or have a herd of cattle. I guess it depends how far south.

 

[Juan]

I am jealous of your formatting skillz.

 

[Bfennell]

If we have no viable QB then it's a long season for anyone at the OC position.

I'm trusting Strong until the facts state otherwise. Hook'em.

 

[HookemHorns]

Obviously stats do not tell the whole story. However it is a more objective way to look at things. For this look I took the rankings / information for Baylor since they were the number one overall, the 2 teams in the MNC game, Louisville, and Texas for this past season.
First off Louisville did not really have a bad season offense wise. However one does have to take into consideration the teams they played.

Their strength was obviously the pass at 314 yards per game. When you have a Heisman level QB, that is to be expected. While rushing they were way down the ranking (86th) at only 146.8 yards per game.

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 1000, align: center]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD]Off. Rank[/TD]

[TD]Team[/TD]

[TD]Yds/Play[/TD]

[TD]Rush YPG (rank)[/TD]

[TD]Pass YPG (rank)[/TD]

[TD]Total YPG[/TD]

[TD]Points PG (rank)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]Baylor[/TD]

[TD]7.49[/TD]

[TD]259.7 (13)[/TD]

[TD]359.1 (5)[/TD]

[TD]618.8[/TD]

[TD]52.4 (1)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]Florida St.[/TD]

[TD]7.67[/TD]

[TD]203.1 (28)[/TD]

[TD]315.9 (14)[/TD]

[TD]519.1[/TD]

[TD]51.6 (2)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11[/TD]

[TD]Auburn[/TD]

[TD]6.92[/TD]

[TD]328.3 (1)[/TD]

[TD]173.0 (106)[/TD]

[TD]501.3[/TD]

[TD]39.5 (12)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]Louisville[/TD]

[TD]6.70[/TD]

[TD]146.8 (86)[/TD]

[TD]314.0 (16)[/TD]

[TD]460.8[/TD]

[TD]35.2 (25)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]64[/TD]

[TD]Texas[/TD]

[TD]5.29[/TD]

[TD]196.2 (36)[/TD]

[TD]212.5 (79)[/TD]

[TD]408.7[/TD]

[TD]29.3 (65)[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

Things of note...

• Their offense would have ranked 4th in the Big 12
  
• Despite being a heavy pass team the Yds/Play are a bit low
  

Now if we look at what this could mean mixing the talent we have at Texas it could be a decent offense, IF a few things happen.

Pros

• We have WAY better running backs that UL
  
• The OL while not great is improved and showing signs of being solid
  
• Solid/Great talent at the WR position
  

Concerns

• QB (Heisman level to ???)
  
• No Tight End which he likes to use
  
• Not really a spread guy
  
• Inconsistent Up-Tempo non Up-Tempo
  

What would have to happen at Texas for him to be successful...

1. Pray Ash can play and/or Swoopes/Heard are ready to take that big step.

2. Develop is offense around our current strength (running).

3. Find a TE or Flex to beat teams over the middle.

4. Build the offense around the spread not the Pro-Style.

I am not saying I like this potential hire for the OC. Just trying to look at some of the things about what his offense did this past year when compared to others. Honestly I hope UL hires Watson as HC

THOUGHTS?

This type of post is what we need here. Thank you.