Lukus Alderman
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- Oct 23, 2013
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This is it. Three games left and they are all against top 15 opponents. This stretch of games could be do or die for Mack Brown...but that's for another story. We're here to talk about Saturday's game against a very good opponent in Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys come into the game ranked in the top 10 and playing as good as they've played all year. Over the past half of the season they've rolled off impressive wins against Iowa State, TCU, Kansas and a HUGE win in Lubbock against Texas Tech. The State offense is good as usual, but their defense is also pitching in and playing great and keeping them ahead of opponents in their games.
Texas enters into this game absolutely needing this win to keep its hopes of a Big 12 title and BCS game birth alive. The Longhorns will need mistakes to be at a minimum in order to win this game.
OFFENSE:
Texas would have brought into the one of the top rushing attacks in the nation with Brown and Gray, but with the season ending injury to Gray, they will need to rely on the speed and receiving ability of Daje Johnson to score points. Unfortunately, the top option at QB in David Ash remains on the sideline while Case McCoy continues to see all of the snaps on offense.
Oklahoma State brings in a great defense which is ranked 18th in the nation against the rush (122.9 ypg/3.35 ypc) while ranking 29th overall in scoring defense, giving up only 21.4 points per game. Their weakness on defense, however, is defending the pass as they rank 97th overall (255.4 ypg).
The strength of this OKState team is the defense and it try will force McCoy to pass the ball. The best shot that Texas has in exploiting this defense is by sticking to a game plan that employs a balanced attack. Texas needs to utilize their skill backs with counter rushing attacks and look for short routes, bubble screens, and intermediate routes in the middle of the field. Case needs to minimize risks and only throw downfield on one-on-one situations.
Stat Predictions:
McCoy: 22-40 312 yards, 1 TD 3 INT
Brown: 23 carries 76 yards, 1 TD 3 rec. 26 yards
Bergeron: 7 carries 26 yards
Daje: 6 carries 15 yards, 4 rec. 65 yards 1 TD
Marcus J: 3 rec. 45 yards
Shipley: 5 rec. 78 yards
M Davis: 4 rec. 66 yards
Sanders: 2 rec. 23 yards
Harris: 1 rec. 5 yards
DEFENSE:
As mentioned before, Oklahoma State is STILL good on offense. Now that Clint Chelf is the starter, he has proven himself in wins against Iowa State and Tech and presents the first true dual threat QB that Texas has faced since Bo Wallace and Ole Miss.
Rushing QBs have proven a difficult task for the Texas defense in losses to BYU and Ole Miss, but those games seem like they were played a year ago as we have an entirely new defense with Greg Robinson at the helm. Our defense is now the strength of the team and is what has really kept us ahead of teams and in games since the Oklahoma win.
We are going to need Carrington Byndom and Mykkel Thompson to play at their highest level, maybe even a level we haven't seen before, to be able to slow down the Chelf to Stewart tandem. I expect our secondary to be tested often, but I think our linebackers will be tested even more by Chelf and his running ability.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
This is an area that Texas really needs to exploit. OKState has had their issues this year as they've had a field goal blocked for a TD against KState along with having a very sub-par place kicker who is 8/14 on the year with a long of only 41 yards. While Stewart has shown the ability to be explosive on punt returns with a 95 yard return against TCU, the Cowboys special teams in general has not been great.
Texas will have their opportunities to return kicks and they need Daje and Sanders to be special if we are going to stay in this game. Fera will should also be a factor in this game as he'll have some opportunities to put points on the board and to keep Texas in the game.
OVERALL:
Aside from Baylor at the end of the year, this game is our toughest. OKState is masterful at creating turnovers and finding ways to score points.
If Texas wants to stay in this ballgame and have a good chance at winning, it is going to need Case to be a bus driver and rely on playmaking skills of his WRs and runningbacks to score points.
I see this being a close game in the first half. Texas' defense will force OKState to punt and attempt long field goals, but will ultimately allow Case and the offense to have opportunities to score points of their own.
The offensive points will come from Daje on a screen or a short pass, and Brown should have an opportunity or two to pound the ball into the end zone. On defense, I expect Diggs and Phillips to have opportunites to create turnovers of their own.
Unfortunately, I think Oklahoma State's QB rushing attack, coupled with Case's turnover issues, will be too much to overcome. The Cowboys will go ahead early in the second quarter and will pull away by the beginning of the fourth.
SCORE PREDICTION:
Texas: 20 OKState: 38
*Note: I'm currently on vacation at Disney so if any facts are off, you'll have to forgive me this one time.*
