NFL Draft -- Interesting breakdown of Bridgewater/Bortles/Carr/JFF

[Juan]

"With respect to quarterbacks in the draft, you’ll always hear pundits make observations such as, “this QB has a great deep ball” or “he always folds when he’s under pressure in the pocket.” But how do you know those are true and not bias from a small sample of observed snaps? The simple answer is that you don’t. What I’ve aimed to do this year (and in years past) is to quantify those observations in an effort complement film study and analysis of draft prospects. Instead of guessing about the potency of Manziel’s deep ball, you can pull up the legitimate statistic.

To do that, I’ve hand charted every one of Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles’ attempts this year on everything from pass distance to throws against the blitz. The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect."

How Accurate Were They?
This requires a bit of explaining. The chart below represents each QBs accuracy in the individual target zones when adjusting for drops by their receivers. The colors represent how that accuracy compares to the ‘Average QB’, green is better than average, yellow average, red is below-average. Let’s get to it.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

 

[Bevo44]

How much of JFF's 20+ was completions to #13 after three spin moves, a hockey pokey maneuver, and a fling down-field in the same zip code as #13 ? For that matter -- would love to see the called play versus scramble completion for all.

 

[txscallywag]

So the Texans should take Bridgewater. Yep that's what I got.... My luck, they go after little brother Carr using the philosophy that first is the worst, second is the best.......

 

[Topstarr]

Bridgewater < Watson

 

[Juan]

.. My luck, they go after little brother Carr using the philosophy that first is the worst, second is the best.......

Carr did not look too promising in his bowl game. He's not a #1.

O'Brien coached against Bridgewater once, and TB beat them.

It's going to be an interesting choice.

The team has some talent without question (Watt/AJ + Cushing/Foster/Manning if healthy + a pretty good left tackle ....

And they also have the first pick in every round.

So, a turn around season is not completely out of the question.

But do they have the right person making the picks?

Of this, I am dubious.

 

[BevoBlake]

Obviously I'd never claim that Manziel isn't a good quarterback. Because clearly, he is. But is just me or does it seem like the kid gets lucky a lot? Lets think about two of the plays that ESPN always shows now when it comes to Johnny Football.

Now...nobody in their right mind isn't going to tip their cap to that effort. He alluded the sack and for that he gets props. Even if we could use this play to show High School Football Players how not to wrap up. When Manziel has alluded the sack and starts his scramble, he puts up a "toss and pray". Some of you are probably familiar with the term from you elementary playground football days. He doesn't do anything but get loose and throw up a prayer. And by pure luck, an Aggie comes down with it. This isn't a great play, so much as an incredible sigh of relief for Aggie.

Again, I'm not saying he didn't pull a bunny out of the hat. But he did so thanks to the horrible tackling by Duke, a fortunate bump from an Offensive Lineman and a corner who pulled too early. Not to mention, he had a first down on the lateral pass to the same receiver before ever trying to run up the gut.

I don't say any of this to take away from his incredible talent and skillset. But it annoys me that these are the plays he is praised for when both boil down to dumb luck.

 

[Firehorn]

Obviously I'd never claim that Manziel isn't a good quarterback. Because clearly, he is. But is just me or does it seem like the kid gets lucky a lot? Lets think about two of the plays that ESPN always shows now when it comes to Johnny Football.

Now...nobody in their right mind isn't going to tip their cap to that effort. He alluded the sack and for that he gets props. Even if we could use this play to show High School Football Players how not to wrap up. When Manziel has alluded the sack and starts his scramble, he puts up a "toss and pray". Some of you are probably familiar with the term from you elementary playground football days. He doesn't do anything but get loose and throw up a prayer. And by pure luck, an Aggie comes down with it. This isn't a great play, so much as an incredible sigh of relief for Aggie.

Again, I'm not saying he didn't pull a bunny out of the hat. But he did so thanks to the horrible tackling by Duke, a fortunate bump from an Offensive Lineman and a corner who pulled too early. Not to mention, he had a first down on the lateral pass to the same receiver before ever trying to run up the gut.

I don't say any of this to take away from his incredible talent and skillset. But it annoys me that these are the plays he is praised for when both boil down to dumb luck.

Been saying the same thing all year. Remember Favre when he was young and made utterly stupid decisions at times? Manziel is Favre with more escapability and far less arm.

 

[Juan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Texans TE Owen Daniels just told <a href="https://twitter.com/jaymohr37">@jaymohr37</a> that he puts the odds that Houston drafts Teddy Bridgewater at no more than 20%</p>— Greg Toohey (@gregtoohey) <a href="

https://twitter.com/gregtoohey/statuses/421717728013996032">January 10, 2014</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Greg Toohey@gregtoohey Exec Producer of Jay Mohr Sports on FOX Sports Radio, Producer of The Gentlemen's League DirecTV, Highlight Coordinator NFL on FOX, Houston / Austin, TX native

 

[TMTycoon]

They left Mettenberger off that list. Thought he was going pro post surgery.

 

[Juan]

Another QB comparison chart -- Off-target throws --

click header to enlarge

 

[txscallywag]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Texans TE Owen Daniels just told <a onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Outgoing', 'twitter.com', '/jaymohr37']);" href="https://twitter.com/jaymohr37">@jaymohr37</a> that he puts the odds that Houston drafts Teddy Bridgewater at no more than 20%</p>— Greg Toohey (@gregtoohey) <a onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Outgoing', 'twitter.com', '/gregtoohey/statuses/421717728013996032']);" href="
https://twitter.com/gregtoohey/statuses/421717728013996032

Huh, I'd be curious to know why. I guess it would depend on the offensive scheme they're going to run.

 

[Juan]

There is not really an NFL playoffs thread to stick this

So just bumping my own - thought this was clever

Sign in Indy this am

 

[JMagana]

The Texans could get Clowney and still Get a good QB in the bottom on 1st (move up) or top of the 2nd. There's 19 QBs in this years draft.

You can't pass on Clowney.

 

[Juan]

The Texans could get Clowney and still Get a good QB in the bottom on 1st (move up) or top of the 2nd. There's 19 QBs in this years draft.
You can't pass on Clowney.

Clowney and Watt on a Romeo Crennel front line in the 3-4?

Would that be greatness, or wasted talent?

Noting -- when he took over in KC, he made them convert from the 4-3 to the 3-4 and it worked.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I expect the Texans to hire Romeo Crennel as DC but nothing's official. I'll be surprised if Mike Munchak isn't the next O line coach.</p>— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) <a href="

https://twitter.com/McClain_on_NFL/statuses/422055506627158016">January 11, 2014</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>