Some thoughts from someone who works in athletics at another conference outside the state (no inside info):
CDC gave Herman an ultimatum at the end of last season – win Big 12 in 2020 or you are fired. Technically, we still have a shot to win Big 12, so we can’t fire him yet (thus all the leaks about – next loss and he is gone; he has to win out or he’s gone)
EOT discussion from CDC to lower buyout (insubordination leads to firing with cause, thus negotiating tactic to reduce buyout)
Herman standing firm on EOT because he’s told players he has their back and will support whatever they want to do (including not being on field for EOT – may not have said this directly, but gave assurances that WHATEVER they want to do, he will support; if he goes back on his word, loses team - more so than he appears to already have)
Herman making plenty of excuses to save face for next job opportunity. Similar to what we saw with Charlie during his last season.
Donors upset about EOT/performance on field, making life miserable for CDC and Hartzell.
UT administration doesn't see a way for team to win out, so gives blessing to BMDs to stay back channeling with Urban's agent.
If Urban agrees and we are out of contention for Big 12, Herman is fired and Ash finishes out season as interim HC.