CFP Rankings/Playoff Thread

[BWilk55]

And to clarify my thoughts on the matter - Texas has a very strong resume. We have beat 6-7 teams that are in the top 30-40 in the country. A&M would add another to this number after we win this weekend.

That is a lot of quality wins, just no wins that are "top 25". We deserve the current ranking we have by going 10-1 against the competition we have faced. There aren't many teams that would have the same record against the level of competition we have faced.

 

[Baron]

I saw on Facebook where someone posted Texas has more wins (7) over bowl eligible teams than anyone else. Notre Dame is 2nd with 6.

I also heard that Texas has the most consecutive true road game wins in the CFP. 10 dating back to '22.

 

[Baron]

Wholeheartedly disagree with this. What matters most is evaluating your opponents are the end of the season when we have 12 games of data on each team.

The data right now indicates that Michigan is a top 30-40 program in the country.

One reason why pre-season rankings are so pointless. Michigan is clearly not the #3 team in the country this year.

Fans and talking heads did just fine judging teams for fifty of my years. Guessing and judging hasn't gotten any better with advanced metrics and algorithms. You can beat that drum all you want but I am too old not to use several old standards like total defense, scoring defense, RZ defense, etc. I used to terrorize my rotisserie league in baseball. I won four years in a row until the kicked me out. Old stats work.

 

[Baron]

Just to measure some time honored stats:
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
Texas 9th A&M 26th
First Downs allowed
Texas 2nd A&M 43rd equals sustained drives for Texas
Interceptions
Texas 2nd A&M 24th
Passing yards allowed
Texas 2nd A&M 79th A&M is susceptible to the down field shot
Red zone defense
Texas 10th A&M 107th...the caveat here is that A&M has allowed far fewer penetrations than most teams (like less than half). They just give up a high percentage of scores.
Rushing defense
Texas 13th A&M 41st
Scoring defense
Texas 3rd A&M 38th
Pass efficiency defense
Texas 2nd A&M 28th
Sacks
Texas 11th A&M 58th
TFL's
Texas 13th A&M 16th
Total defense
Texas 2nd A&M 56th

 

[Billybass]

Lots of indicators favoring our horns. This is interesting stuff.
Thank you

 

[PTA]

the caveat here is that A&M has allowed far fewer penetrations than most teams (like less than half).

Except when it comes to their sheep.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Wholeheartedly disagree with this. What matters most is evaluating your opponents are the end of the season when we have 12 games of data on each team.

The data right now indicates that Michigan is a top 30-40 program in the country.

One reason why pre-season rankings are so pointless. Michigan is clearly not the #3 team in the country this year.

You've just rendered rankings useless for the entire 14 week season.

That is how we know it's a flawed theory.

Rankings are even built into conference and CFB tiebreakers. If they are indeed worthless, why place so much weight on them? Yet, most of us do.

 

[BWilk55]

Rankings are even built into conference and CFB tiebreakers. If they are indeed worthless, why place so much weight on them? Yet, most of us do.

These would be end of season rankings, correct?

 

[BWilk55]

Fans and talking heads did just fine judging teams for fifty of my years. Guessing and judging hasn't gotten any better with advanced metrics and algorithms. You can beat that drum all you want but I am too old not to use several old standards like total defense, scoring defense, RZ defense, etc. I used to terrorize my rotisserie league in baseball. I won four years in a row until the kicked me out. Old stats work.

My argument wasn't against fans and talking heads, it was about not using pre-season or mid-season rankings to discuss "top 25 wins".

Use subjective or objective measures, but end of season rankings using all 12 games worth of data is what matters.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

These would be end of season rankings, correct?

No, not at all. The CFP rankings come out weekly starting in the middle of the season. They do them weekly through the end of the season.

 

[Baron]

My argument wasn't against fans and talking heads, it was about not using pre-season or mid-season rankings to discuss "top 25 wins".

Use subjective or objective measures, but end of season rankings using all 12 games worth of data is what matters.

But with your argument we shouldin't discuss it at all until the season is over.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Friday

Mountain West Conference
UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (11-1) at 7 pm

American Athletic Conference
Tulane (9-3) at Army (10-1) at 7 pm

Saturday

Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship
Iowa State (10-2) vs. Arizona State (10-2) at AT&T Stadium in Dallas at 11 am on FOX

SEC Championship
Georgia (10-2) vs. Texas (11-1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta at 3 pm on ABC

Big Ten Championship
Penn State (11-1) vs. Oregon (12-0) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis at 7 pm on CBS

ACC Championship
Clemson (9-3) vs. SMU (11-1) at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte at 7 pm on ABC

 

[DMAC]

Its payback time. Once we beat the dawgs it will be undisputed. Beat ousux, pigs, ags, and won the conference title our first year. Get a first round bye and a national championship. Doesnt get any better than this.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

The new AP Top 25. lol, we knocked aggy out of the poll. lol

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. South Carolina
14. Miami (FL)
15. Ole Miss
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Clemson
19. UNLV
20. Colorado
21. Illinois
22. Missouri
23. Syracuse
24. Army
25. Memphis

 

[dssl]

The new AP Top 25. lol, we knocked aggy out of the poll. lol

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. South Carolina
14. Miami (FL)
15. Ole Miss
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Clemson
19. UNLV
20. Colorado
21. Illinois
22. Missouri
23. Syracuse
24. Army
25. Memphis

LOL Still no wins over ranked teams, we still must suck

 

[BWilk55]

But with your argument we shouldin't discuss it at all until the season is over.

I'm okay with it being discussed throughout the season but you have to avoid being anchored to pre-season rankings or even early season rankings.

Clearly our Michigan win wasn't a road victory against the 3rd best team in the country. It was a road win against a team that is somewhere around the 30th best team in the country.

 

[hookemhorb]

Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Nothing like a little chaos in the final week to muddy up the CFP picture.

Miami's loss to Syracuse knocked them out of the CFP and they're going bowling. Clemson's loss probably means only 1 team from the ACC will make the CFP. Clemson has to win the ACC CCG in order to make the CFP. SMU wins and they are in. A SMU loss, depending on how close to the score is, and they will be on the bubble. If SMU makes the CFP with a loss, it will be at the expense of 'Bama. I don't see the committee saying a 2 loss SMU should get in over a 3 loss 'Bama, but what do I know.

The Big 12 screwed themselves a while back so only the winner of the CCG will make the CFP. And if Boise St wins their CCG, the Big 12 gets the shaft again. They won't get the bye, Boise will.

The Big 10 will have 4 teams in the CFP--Oregon, Penn St, Ohio St and Indiana. I thought Ohio St's loss might put them on the road the first round of the playoffs but we'll see what the pollsters do here.

No surprise here as Notre Dame gets a home game the first round of the CFP.

Looks like the SEC will get 4 teams into the CFP too. Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama. The winner of the CCG will get the bye and if Texas loses, Texas and Tennessee get home games in the first round. If Georgia loses, I think Ohio State will back into a home game in the first round. I just don't know how the committee will treat the losers of the CCGs.

I had hoped that the winner of the Army - Tulane might sneak into the CFP but Tulane's loss to Memphis dashed that scenario.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Nothing like a little chaos in the final week to muddy up the CFP picture.

Miami's loss to Syracuse knocked them out of the CFP and they're going bowling. Clemson's loss probably means only 1 team from the ACC will make the CFP. Clemson has to win the ACC CCG in order to make the CFP. SMU wins and they are in. A SMU loss, depending on how close to the score is, and they will be on the bubble. If SMU makes the CFP with a loss, it will be at the expense of 'Bama. I don't see the committee saying a 2 loss SMU should get in over a 3 loss 'Bama, but what do I know.

The Big 12 screwed themselves a while back so only the winner of the CCG will make the CFP. And if Boise St wins their CCG, the Big 12 gets the shaft again. They won't get the bye, Boise will.

The Big 10 will have 4 teams in the CFP--Oregon, Penn St, Ohio St and Indiana. I thought Ohio St's loss might put them on the road the first round of the playoffs but we'll see what the pollsters do here.

No surprise here as Notre Dame gets a home game the first round of the CFP.

Looks like the SEC will get 4 teams into the CFP too. Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama. The winner of the CCG will get the bye and if Texas loses, Texas and Tennessee get home games in the first round. If Georgia loses, I think Ohio State will back into a home game in the first round. I just don't know how the committee will treat the losers of the CCGs.

I had hoped that the winner of the Army - Tulane might sneak into the CFP but Tulane's loss to Memphis dashed that scenario.

I think South Carolina might get in before Alabama.

 

[dssl]

I think South Carolina might get in before Alabama.

Hard to imagine South Carolina making a serious run, so sounds like that would be a win for the other teams.

 

[longhorndon]

Finebaum made a good point about Clemson winning gives the committee a chance to keep SMU in the field and pass on all the 3-loss SEC teams.