Big 12 baseball tourney projections

[Matt Cotcher]

The other 3 host sites should come from this list:

LSU or Vandy (depending on SEC Tourney outcomes)

Louisville or Houston (depending on the AAC tourney)

Rice (would have to have a miserable tourney to get leapfrogged, IMO)

Texas (has to win the Big 12 tourney AND needs others to lose)

LSU stroked Vandy and Louisville, UH & Rice all won. Despite their win, that's not what Texas needs from those other teams.

 

[Juan]

from other thread ... here is prolly better

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[Matt Cotcher]

IMO (per page 1), this weekend is more about how other teams do, more than it is how Texas does. Yes, the Stanford series impact the RPI, but big picture (read: for Austin to host a Regional), results in the AAC, ACC & SEC tourneys will have a bigger impact.

 

[joeywa]

IMO (per page 1), this weekend is more about how other teams do, more than it is how Texas does. Yes, the Stanford series impact the RPI, but big picture (read: for Austin to host a Regional), results in the AAC, ACC & SEC tourneys will have a bigger impact.

Yep.  I think Texas is merely trying to get in a groove headed into CWS regional.  Whether or not they host will largely depend on what other teams do.  Matt, you have done a great job at analysing the way this will shake out.  I don't see us hosting right now.  The only way we sniff a host spot is by winning the Big12 tourney.

 

[streettopeschel]

Yep.  I think Texas is merely trying to get in a groove headed into CWS regional.  Whether or not they host will largely depend on what other teams do.  Matt, you have done a great job at analysing the way this will shake out.  I don't see us hosting right now.  The only way we sniff a host spot is by winning the Big12 tourney.

never thought i'd say it, but i'd just as soon go to Reckling than play at DFF. Now if we get shipped to BFE, than that would suck.  But Rice has a nice park, we know they're beatable, we might actually see a ball leave the yard and a weekend in H-town wouldn't be the end of the world.

 

[joeywa]

never thought i'd say it, but i'd just as soon go to Reckling than play at DFF. Now if we get shipped to BFE, than that would suck.  But Rice has a nice park, we know they're beatable, we might actually see a ball leave the yard and a weekend in H-town wouldn't be the end of the world.

If BFE includes anywhere in the PacNW or Cali, I'm just fine with that.  You should make the trek, street!!

 

[Matt Cotcher]

If BFE includes anywhere in the PacNW or Cali, I'm just fine with that. 

Texas as a 2 seed in the Corvallis Regional?!? Can you say "business expense"?

 

[joeywa]

Texas as a 2 seed in the Corvallis Regional?!? Can you say "business expense"?

Oh, I'll be in Corvallis. That's not a favorable matchup though.  I'd rather a #2 in Seattle in the UW regional or possibly Cal Poly; easier regions. OSU is a tough club.  

UH with their loss today to UConn likely played themselves right out of a host spot.  Vandy is also in jeapordy of losing a host spot. 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Oh, I'll be in Corvallis. That's not a favorable matchup though.  I'd rather a #2 in Seattle in the UW regional or possibly Cal Poly; easier regions. OSU is a tough club.  

UH with their loss today to UConn likely played themselves right out of a host spot.  Vandy is also in jeapordy of losing a host spot. 

No, No, No...I meant a business expense for HornSports!  B)

 

[streettopeschel]

If BFE includes anywhere in the PacNW or Cali, I'm just fine with that.  You should make the trek, street!!

be careful what you wish for.

 

[utisdabomb12]

RPI up to 10. Maybe I'm delusional but I still don't think a regional is out of the question if Texas can pick up a few more victories in the Big 12 tournament. A win tonight against a good OSU team would go a long way. Texas will jump ahead of Houston tonight in RPI if they win, after Houston had a bad loss today. Not much separating Rice and Texas in terms of RPI either. Even if Rice wins today, I think a Texas win might even push us ahead of Rice. 

 

[joeywa]

No, No, No...I meant a business expense for HornSports!  B)

Rumor has it if you offer Darrell a pony keg of Bud Light, he'll agree to almost anything. 

Again, merely rumor at this point, but if West Coast comes to fruition, it's worth a shot! 

 

[utisdabomb12]

OU wins, wow Tech blew a big lead. Sounds good to me, makes our path easier if we happen to play OU. Tech won't be hosting a regional now that's for sure. 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

My projection had TCU & Texas in the winner's brackets, but I had KU in WVU's spot and Tech in OU's.

 

[joeywa]

Well that does it!  I'm no longer listening to your picks.  Clearly you suck. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

Kendall Rogers just tweeted we are getting into the hosting mix. 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Oregon State, UF, FSU & UVA are all virtual locks to get national seeds.

Ole Miss, ULaLa, Indiana, Miami, South Carolina, OkStU & TCU are all strong candidates for the other 4 national seeds. How those teams do in the conference tournaments will dictate what happens.

That's 11 teams (above) that will undoubtedly host a Regional. Add Cal Poly & Washington to that list (on merit and to get some Western US host sites).

The other 3 host sites should come from this list:

LSU or Vandy (depending on SEC Tourney outcomes)

Louisville or Houston (depending on the AAC tourney)

Rice (would have to have a miserable tourney to get leapfrogged, IMO)

Texas (has to win the Big 12 tourney AND needs others to lose)

After 2.5 days of games, the picture is getting more clear....

I'd say the top 8 seeds will be

Locks: Oregon State, UF, FSU, UVA

Now looking good: ULaLa, IU 

Final 2 spots will likely be Ole Miss & TCU/OkStU (if one wins the tourney)

Regional Hosts: 

Locks: Miami, South Carolina, Rice, Cal Poly, Washington & the loser of TCU/OkStU (above)

Last 2 spots: LSU & Louisville have the edge, especially if they keep winning

That leaves Texas as potentially the #17 team. Since Austin/DFF are desirabe as a host site, it's possible that Texas could be a host and #2 seed.

 

[utisdabomb12]

Louisville with a bad loss today.  

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Baylor put up 7 runs in the 7th & 8th to beat WVU, 9-4.

1-2 in the tourney is likely not enough to get WVU an at-large bid. That's bad is you're a Mountaineer, but good if you're an Aggie.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

OkStU v OU is in a rain delay. The longer it goes, the better it is for the Horns & tomorrow's game(s).