Longhorns Going Bowling, but Where?

[TexExSpur]

So I was having this debate in another forum yesterday, although I've revised my analysis a bit since then. Here's my thoughts:

From Wikipedia, here's the tie-ins, in order: CFP or NY6 Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Camping World Bowl, Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Cactus Bowl, and Heart of Dallas Bowl. Also, there's the at-large bids for Cotton/Fiesta/Peach Bowl.

My guess would be that OU will make the CFP, and TCU has a good chance at an at-large bid. I think Oklahoma State would almost certainly get selected next, which would be the Alamo Bowl if TCU gets an at-large bid. If UT wins next weekend, I'd say we'd almost certainly get selected ahead of WVU due to beating them head-to-head, and name recognition. If ISU wins next weekend, it would be tough to say who gets selected next, since they will have an 8-4 record vs our 7-5 record.

If UT wins and ISU loses, I believe UT would go to the Camping World Bowl (if TCU gets an at-large bid) or the Texas Bowl (if TCU doesn't get a bid).

If UT wins *and* ISU wins, Texas will most likely go to either the Camping World Bowl, the Texas Bowl, or the Liberty Bowl, depending on TCU's status and whether ISU gets selected ahead of UT.

If UT loses next weekend, we would probably be looking at either the Cactus Bowl or the Liberty Bowl.

Now, if we take a Bayesian approach and assume that UT's odds of beating TTU are 75%, ISU's odds of beating KSU are 50%, TCU's odds of getting an at-large bid are 50%, and both KSU and ISU have a 50% chance of getting selected ahead of us if they end up with 1 more win than us, here's the probability of UT making each bowl:

Camping World Bowl: 28%

Texas Bowl: 37%

Liberty Bowl: 28%

Cactus Bowl: 6%

Quality leg work, but nobody want's WV or ISU without their QB's.

 

[TexExSpur]

 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe bowls choose. It’s not necessarily the next in line according to the order of finish… But who the bowl chooses. 

 In this scenario Texas typically jumps people because of revenue. 

 Unless you’re in the SEC… In that case the conference chooses according to what matchup’s favor sec and so they can keep the illusion that they hold the best team from every state. 

Correct.  

 

[echeese]

Wouldn't that be either Clemson or Miami, depending on who wins the title game and goes to the CFP? That would be both intriguing and very challenging. But in order for us to be #3, OSU would have to lose to Kansas. So my money is on the Texas Bowl, if I'd had to guess I'd say against Mississippi State

Would be the loser of the ACC title game?

If so, and sorry to sound like a defeatist but I want no part of Clemson or Miami right now.    Frankly Miss St (Texas Bowl) is a bit of a scary match up but more winnable.

 

[DBut82]

Would be the loser of the ACC title game?

If so, and sorry to sound like a defeatist but I want no part of Clemson or Miami right now.    Frankly Miss St (Texas Bowl) is a bit of a scary match up but more winnable.

Won't the loser get an at-large to a New Year's 6 tho?  Actually leaving the #3 team?  In which case would provide a more "favorable" match up for us? Idk, I'm just asking...

 

[TexExSpur]

Won't the loser get an at-large to a New Year's 6 tho?  Actually leaving the #3 team?  In which case would provide a more "favorable" match up for us? Idk, I'm just asking...

More than likely, Clemson and Miami end up in big bowls (one in the playoff, the other at large).  It would be NC State or Vtech.  I'm all for a trip to Orlando!

Same with Big 12.  OU playoff, TCU at large.

 

[DBut82]

More than likely, Clemson and Miami end up in big bowls (one in the playoff, the other at large).  It would be NC State or Vtech.  I'm all for a trip to Orlando!

Same with Big 12.  OU playoff, TCU at large.

Thanks TexEx!  I'm all for a trip to Orlando as well.  And a winnable bowl game.  But we've proven imo that we can play with any team in the nation.  And I shudder to think how explosive we can be on both sides of the football with a month to gameplan.  Bring on whomever and let end this season on a high note!  HOOK 'EM!!

 

[Aaron Carrara]

What conference tie ins does the Cotton Bowl have?

The College Football Playoff selection committee will choose two at-large teams for this bowl game.  

 

[605Longhorn]

I not only think that they would be able to game plan extremely well, but how many players will we get back from injury?  Vahe, Brewer, Locke, Ect....  anymore offensive linemen.  

Edit Just Read the Brewer is out for the year.  Best of Wishes to him

 

[Adferrum]

 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe bowls choose. It’s not necessarily the next in line according to the order of finish… But who the bowl chooses. 

 In this scenario Texas typically jumps people because of revenue. 

 Unless you’re in the SEC… In that case the conference chooses according to what matchup’s favor sec and so they can keep the illusion that they hold the best team from every state. 

True, but do you really see Texas being chosen over TCU and OSU all things considered?

Both have been legitimate playoff contender for most part of the season, with TCU still having an outside chance of making it in. 

 

[TexExSpur]

True, but do you really see Texas being chosen over TCU and OSU all things considered?

Both have been legitimate playoff contender for most part of the season, with TCU still having an outside chance of making it in. 

TCU Has a great shot at an at large bid.  If not then it is what it is and they'll be in the Alamo.

 

[Baron]

I voted the Camping World Bowl, but now that I think about it, I figure TCU will end up 10-3 and likely out of the New Years Six. That bumps Texas down one because the Alamo Bowl would be foolish to pass up TCU. The Camping World Bowl may take a 7-5 W Virginia because they would be more of a regional team than the rest of the Big 12. That leaves the Texas Bowl with a choice between Texas and Okie lite.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Liberty Bowl

Texas vs Kentucky

 

[MBHORNSFAN]

I really don't care but whatever bowl it is I am going...

 

[MikeV73]

Tip of the hat to you for the legwork.

Nice clip!  The original Batman show is the first TV show I remember watching as a kiddo.   Good times

 

[primal defense]

I don't care. I just want someone we can beat, so it can build momentum for recruiting. Whoever is the easiest team to beat.

 

[java]

I don’t see the Texas Bowl taking Okie Lite over Texas and Herman, but they may.

They aren’t obligated. btw, is Alvarez still on the Playoff Committee?

 

[Baron]

I don’t see the Texas Bowl taking Okie Lite over Texas and Herman, but they may.

They aren’t obligated. btw, is Alvarez still on the Playoff Committee?

I'm thinking Alvarez is out. Wasn't there a lot of turnover in the committee before the season?

 

[java]

I don’t know if there was. My work year really accelerated around the end of July. 

Alvarez held too much power. He needed to go. 

 

[echeese]

More than likely, Clemson and Miami end up in big bowls (one in the playoff, the other at large).  It would be NC State or Vtech.  I'm all for a trip to Orlando!

Same with Big 12.  OU playoff, TCU at large.

Either match up would be fine for me.

 

[okiehorn]

Miami upset by Pitt shakes things up a bit at top