The Truth about BYU and the Big 12

[J.B. TexasEx]

The Big 12’s TV contract is split between Fox and ESPN and both networks have refused to reopen the contract to add money for expansion.
 
What that means is if the Big 12 were to add BYU  that each of the ten current members would see their annual revenue from the TV contract reduced by $2-3 million each  year.  Over the lifetime of the current contract that loss of revenue hits a staggering $20-30 million dollars.

Chris "The Dude" Lambert pontificates about what many of us already suspected - the Big12 isn't close to adding any new teams unless:  http://dudeofwv.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-truth-about-byu-and-big-12.html

1. They help existing ten Big12 schools realize an increase in TV revenues 
2. We absolutely need a Big12 Conference Championship Game to better position ourselves for the new 4-team playoff

Otherwise, forget it.  There's no incentive to expand beyond 10 other than not looking like aggie math students.  To quote Mack Brown, "It is what it is".

 

[Sean Adams]

No reason to add anyone if you are just diluting money but the new team doesn't bring an new additional money. Obviously if it would have been a monster school then ESPN would have opened up if it made sense to them.

 

[Shevis Irons]

When a seven year old says he ain't hungry, he ain't hungry. Unless you put something in front of him that he can't refuse to eat. Then he'll eat till he explodes if he likes it well enough.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

When a seven year old says he ain't hungry, he ain't hungry. Unless you put something in front of him that he can't refuse to eat. Then he'll eat till he explodes if he likes it well enough.

Trying to read between the lines here, but I don't think the Big12 "likes" BYU enough to eat 'em if they ain't hungry.  Just sayin'.

Mormons won't play on Sunday.  Creates scheduling problems for every sport but football.

 

[streettopeschel]

Chris "The Dude" Lambert pontificates about what many of us already suspected - the Big12 isn't close to adding any new teams unless:  http://dudeofwv.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-truth-about-byu-and-big-12.html

1. They help existing ten Big12 schools realize an increase in TV revenues 
2. We absolutely need a Big12 Conference Championship Game to better position ourselves for the new 4-team playoff

Otherwise, forget it.  There's no incentive to expand beyond 10 other than not looking like aggie math students.  To quote Mack Brown, "It is what it is".

i'm a big fan of keeping it simple. and this is a simple explanation. next.

 

[HornNdriftwood]

Seeing as how it's "the Dude," I'll keep an open mind. Not that I think expansion is imminent. There are several mistakes in his arguments.

First of all, "The Big 12’s TV contract is split between Fox and ESPN and both networks have refused to reopen the contract to add money for expansion." I've never heard this from a credible source (sorry Dude) and I can almost guarantee it's not true. What is true is the networks have agreed to pay for a CCG. I've heard the dollar amount to be around $2MM per team. That would be $20-24MM right there. That's enough to pay for 1 addition. If the Big 12 had accepted invites in hand from the likes of BYU and UCF/Cinn. I have no doubt the networks would step up and make the numbers work.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

i'm a big fan of keeping it simple. and this is a simple explanation. next.

Thanks - brevity is my strength.  Why write a paragraph when a sentence will do?

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Seeing as how it's "the Dude," I'll keep an open mind. Not that I think expansion is imminent. There are several mistakes in his arguments.

First of all, "The Big 12’s TV contract is split between Fox and ESPN and both networks have refused to reopen the contract to add money for expansion." I've never heard this from a credible source (sorry Dude) and I can almost guarantee it's not true. What is true is the networks have agreed to pay for a CCG. I've heard the dollar amount to be around $2MM per team. That would be $20-24MM right there. That's enough to pay for 1 addition. If the Big 12 had accepted invites in hand from the likes of BYU and UCF/Cinn. I have no doubt the networks would step up and make the numbers work.

There in lies the problem.

A CCG only pays for one addition - BYU.  No other team is attractive enough to increase the TV revenues pie incrementally for members.  A "pro rata" increase doesn't move the dial either, unfortunately. 

"The Dude"'s argument about a team like Baylor potentially losing T1 game exposure to BYU is valid.

 

[HornNdriftwood]

There in lies the problem.

A CCG only pays for one addition - BYU.  No other team is attractive enough to increase the TV revenues pie incrementally for members.  A "pro rata" increase doesn't move the dial either, unfortunately. 

"The Dude"'s argument about a team like Baylor potentially losing T1 game exposure to BYU is valid.

My point is, his first argument is based on a fallacy, IMO. I disagree with him on that. If we expanded to 12, the networks will come up with the money.

I don't remember him arguing that teams were against expanding due to less exposure. That may or not be a sticking point, but the Dude didn't mention it.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

My point is, his first argument is based on a fallacy, IMO. I disagree with him on that. If we expanded to 12, the networks will come up with the money.

You're right - the networks will come up with the money for teams that they deem attractive.  BYU is probably one.  UCF? Cincinnati? Not so much.  FSU?  Absolutely

I don't remember him arguing that teams were against expanding due to less exposure. That may or not be a sticking point, but the Dude didn't mention it.

Got me - my assertion isn't included in The Dude's article.  I must have gleaned it somewhere else - probably ShaggyBevo's @Hurtlocker

 

[Sirhornsalot]

JB, I think you underestimate UCF. They may lack national popularity, but they are a HUGE school.

If you could add FSU and UCF, all the better. I have my doubts on FSU though.

 

[texasdobbs]

If it makes since then do it "expansion"... but don't do it to just do something. .. sorry that's about as profound of a statement I could come up....

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

JB, I think you underestimate UCF. They may lack national popularity, but they are a HUGE school.

If you could add FSU and UCF, all the better. I have my doubts on FSU though.

UCF is the largest university in FL, 2nd largest in the USA.  Yes, they have great potential.

But, to your point, they don't have "national appeal".....yet.  Will that change in the foreseeable future?  It can, sure, because they'll have many living alumni to help raise their profile.  Playing and beating big-name opponents like Penn State also helps if they'll continue to schedule UCF.

The Knights don't average sell-outs at their 45k home stadium yet, either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_UCF_Knights_football_team

 

[Randolph Duke]

If Bowlsby pushes conference expansion before the Aereo decision is handed down and before the Maryland exit fee litigation is settled he should be run out of and position of leadership in organized sports.

Either one of those factors could fundamentally change the landscape of college sports.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

If Bowlsby pushes conference expansion before the Aereo decision is handed down and before the Maryland exit fee litigation is settled he should be run out of and position of leadership in organized sports.

Either one of those factors could fundamentally change the landscape of college sports.

RD - do you have a good link that provides the details of the Aereo case?  I've got one from the Huffington Post, but maybe you've got a better synopsis?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elyssa-pachico/three-questions-about-the-aereo_b_5209941.html

Reading between the lines, I foresee how an Aereo victory in this case can potentially make conference channels like B1G & SEC Network undesirable.  Programming goes ala carte and LHN is in a much stronger position.  Will aggie pay a premium for Vandy content?  Doubtful

 

[doc longhorn]

Winning programs will be determined to be valid.  Rice, Army, Yale and Harvard were once winning programs, and now....

I know we are not going to expand any time soon, but I have my preferences for the day when we do - if ever. 

I think FSU has a remote possibility, but if not them, then UCF and/or Louisville.    I'm just not a fan of BYU.

I like the idea of a presence in Florida and I think Louisville could deliver the east coast and both teams would apply pressure to the SEC.  They also take WVU off an island.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Heck, let's add Harvard and Yale, raise our standards ave and add nostalgia at the same time. I'd pay money to see Texas beat a hole in Yale or Harvard. They'll all end up being lawyers and politicians so this may be our only chance at them he he

 

[echeese]

JB, I think you underestimate UCF. They may lack national popularity, but they are a HUGE school.

If you could add FSU and UCF, all the better. I have my doubts on FSU though.

Without FSU or another florida school .. . UCF makes no sense. . . .

Some of you discount BYU but their reach is strong .. . .

My problem is why go to 11 . . ..besides my problem that we should have added BYU, Louisville and never considered TCU that brings NOTHING to the table. . . 

I doubt we expand anytime soon but the idea the networks will not renegotiate I'm not sure I buy. . .

Still think our best option is to take TT, OU and OSU and join the ACC in a pod arrangement. . . .then UCF makes sense. . . 

 

[Shevis Irons]

Trying to read between the lines here, but I don't think the Big12 "likes" BYU enough to eat 'em if they ain't hungry. Just sayin'.

Mormons won't play on Sunday. Creates scheduling problems for every sport but football.

Actually I was referring to ESPN. If they see adding programs to the a Big12 means greater viewership then they'll renegotiate. However if it's just robbing Peter to pay Paul.... They have no incentive. For them it's all about TVs. Unless, somehow, we can add more TVs without taking them from ESPN then we've made our bed and have to lue in it.
Until, the dam breaks and the damn dam is about to break. There is a lot of smoke right now coming from Bristol about the whole reallignment into big 4 conferences.