Controlling Chaos 2.0 - an update on the Horns' bowl possibilities

[HornSports Staff]

Last week, we looked at all the possible outcomes for the Big 12 race, and how each impacted the conference standings, in turn affecting the Longhorns' bowl game. On Thanksgiving night, TCU emphatically answered the top question on the decision tree, with their 48-10 victory.

Now that a week's worth of games have been played and another Playoff Poll is released, there is more certainty are fewer possible outcomes. However, even with less conditional statements, the end result is an unknown. HornSports spoke to representatives from the CFP, the Russell Athletic Bowl, the Texas Bowl, and the Liberty Bowl to make this forecast as accurate as possible. After doing all the legwork, the only apparent thing at this point, is that nobody can speak with certainty until Sunday at Noon.

For starters, let's take a look at how this weekend's Big 12 games are going to impact the equation:

Based on that selection order, there are several key assumptions that needed to be made in order to arrive at distinctive results:

1. The color-coded "Selection Order" above is the actual order that bowls will select Big 12 teams. It is important to note that the Big 12, unlike the SEC, does not gerrymander selection of teams by the league's bowl partners. That means that until the Alamo Bowl knows which teams will be selected to play on New Year's Day, they cannot possibly know who to invite to their game. Similarly, downstream where the Texas Bowl is positioned, it is a pure guess at this juncture for anyone to say what their matchup will be since teams will be selected for the Playoff, New Year's Day Bowls, and two other bowls before they know which teams are available to them.

2. At 11-1/8-1, the winner of the Big 12 goes to the 4-team College Football Playoff. With TCU vaulting up to No. 3 in the rankings this week, either the Horned Frogs or the Baylor Bears are virtually assured of garnering a spot in the four team playoff.

3. Any Big 12 team with at least 10 wins will be invited to play in a New Year's Day bowl. This is an assumption, not a fact. The Playoff committee will fill the 8 slots on New Year's Day (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, and Orange Bowls) from a wide pool of teams, including:

• The conference champions of the Big 12, SEC, Pac 12, Big 10, and ACC automatically earn an invites (if they are not one of the four playoff teams).

• The highest-ranked (by the playoff poll) champion among the Mountain West, American, Conference USA, Sun Belt or MAC conferences will earn one spot.​

• ​​Any remaining slots are filled directly by rank-order from the final poll done by the committee.

4. In order to have a predictable pattern of outcomes, this model assumes that downstream Big 12 bowl affiliates select only based on conference standings. While it's known this is not true, it is necessary to make a choice, and this is the most logical one.


As stated last week, the “top-down” factor will determine the Longhorns' and all other downstream bowl destinations. Think of the bowl selection hierarchy like a domino chain…until the first domino is pushed over, the rest of the chain is meaningless. How the following teams finish their seasons and how they stack up in the final playoff poll will have a direct impact on which bowl game Texas plays in:

Alabama versus Missouri in the SEC championship game
Oregon versus Arizona in the Pac 12 championship game
FSU versus Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game
Ohio State versus Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game


The key question after this exercise is: Which factors play the biggest role in determining the Longhorns' bowl destination?

1. A combination of assumptions #2 & #3
Without knowing which teams will be placed in the playoff and NYD bowls, it's not possible to project which bowl will invite the Horns. Specifically, whether TCU, Baylor and Kansas are tabbed for a playoff spot or a NYD bowl directly impacts Texas. Additionally, how the other conference championship games finish will impact those three teams' outcomes, so those games indirectly affect the Longhorns as well.

2. Assumption #4
Does the Russell Athletic Bowl select their team based on conference standings, or anticipated ticket sales? What about the Texas bowl? As we mentioned in Burnt Ends this week, each bowl has their own set of criteria when contemplating matchups. 

 

[North Texas Golfer]

TIFWIW

Someone on OB who claims to know, and is vouched for by others, says Texas-LSU is all but a done deal.

 

[dillohorn]

A win over LSU would help our recruiting in La. UT has been going after guys there for some time and things could get even better.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

TIFWIW

Someone on OB who claims to know, and is vouched for by others, says Texas-LSU is all but a done deal.

I believe that the Texas Bowl might be sitting around a conference room and discussing all the possible matchups they might get. And, in doing so, they could favor Texas v LSU - that's very logical. In terms of them having a preference/first choice, it might be a "done deal".

But until all the upstream stuff is decided, there's no way for them to do more than have a preference. I've been told as much by multiple bowls.

 

[bcherry168]

Looking at all of the "what ifs" leads me to think the most likely destination is the Texas Bowl.. I guess the SEC would get to choose who we play. I think we will be very happy to play anybody.

I don't see how TCU is left out of the playoff unless they just collapse against Iowa State. My thought is that K State is perfectly capable of beating Baylor, which would leave K State in a New Years bowl, so where would Baylor go?

If Baylor wins and one of the four drops out of the playoff slot, I guess they would go there. Ga. Tech may well be capable of beating Fla. State. Would that put both TCU and Baylor in the playoff? That would be fun. But we might see politics raise its ugly head with Ohio State jumping in. However, I don't think they can beat Wisconsin with their 3rd string quarterback.

All very interesting, and I guess we will find out next Sunday.

I am just happy that Charlie Strong and the team got to be bowl eligible. There were times early in the season when I was not that optimistic.

 

[Topstarr]

I want the Liberty Bowl.....and that is all I want for Christmas  !!!

 

[Matt Cotcher]

I want the Liberty Bowl.....and that is all I want for Christmas  !!!

Did Lukus take over your account?!?

 

[echeese]

1st, these graphic are COOL   . . .what can I say, simple things for simple minds

2nd, I'm in Cali (I have an option to attend the 1st Rose Bowl CFB playoff game) so I'm out but weather at the Liberty Bowl frequently sucks.

Can we get papa john to do a Papa John Bowl so we can take the Whiskey tour?

 

[Bear19]

I believe that the Texas Bowl might be sitting around a conference room and discussing all the possible matchups they might get. And, in doing so, they could favor Texas v LSU - that's very logical. In terms of them having a preference/first choice, it might be a "done deal".

But until all the upstream stuff is decided, there's no way for them to do more than have a preference. I've been told as much by multiple bowls.

This sounds right to me. I grew up downstream and learned a long time ago that upstream stuff is very important.

 

[hoskins5]

Playing aggy would be the best thing for our program IMO. I say this because I don't believe we have that much to lose, sadly. The perception people have across this state is that Texas is way behind aggy and Baylor. If we lose to aggy, it's charlie strong's first year and we still need time to rebuild, it's not going to hurt us that much. However, it will destroy their perception if we beat them. Plus I think this bowl matchup is favorable to our style of play. Just my opinion

 

[popdaddy]

That graphic reinforces my desire Snyder's team kicks Biles' team butt.  I can't imagine the Texas Bowl officials letting a shot at landing Texas get by them.  This year will be their only chance at UT, they won't let it get away from them. 

 

[Topstarr]

Did Lukus take over your account?!?

yes

 

[Lukus Alderman]

I want the Liberty Bowl.....and that is all I want for Christmas !!!

I'm with you!

 

[Matt Cotcher]

That graphic reinforces my desire Snyder's team kicks Biles' team butt.  I can't imagine the Texas Bowl officials letting a shot at landing Texas get by them.  This year will be their only chance at UT, they won't let it get away from them. 

The 2 spots where it could get tricky in this scenario is if enough upsets happen on Saturday that a 10-2 Baylor team wasn't high enough in the poll to get a NYD bowl. That shifts the whole hierarchy down a spot.

#2 is if Baylor does make a NYD bowl, then the Texas Bowl only gets to pick the Horns if the Russell Athletic Bowl decides to pass on them. As we've mentioned in other places, the coaches will lean on that committee for an invite (because it's in FL).

Having said all that, when I talked to a Texas Bowl rep, none of the sub-criteria they gave me led me to believe they would not jump at the chance to pick UT.

 

[Aaron Carrara]

A 'Horns vs. Bayou Bengals matchup in Houston would be great. 

 

[PeteA422]

Playing aggy would be the best thing for our program IMO. I say this because I don't believe we have that much to lose, sadly. The perception people have across this state is that Texas is way behind aggy and Baylor. If we lose to aggy, it's charlie strong's first year and we still need time to rebuild, it's not going to hurt us that much. However, it will destroy their perception if we beat them. Plus I think this bowl matchup is favorable to our style of play. Just my opinion

This is the exact reason why the SEC will never let us play aggie.  All the upside lies with UT, not with aggie and SEC.  Since the SEC chooses which bowls their teams go to, I am predicting a snowballs chance in hell that we play aggie for a bowl this year.

 

[hoskins5]

This is the exact reason why the SEC will never let us play aggie. All the upside lies with UT, not with aggie and SEC. Since the SEC chooses which bowls their teams go to, I am predicting a snowballs chance in hell that we play aggie for a bowl this year.

Completely agree. Just sad

 

[lakeman74]

I'd like to see both Baylor and TCU make it to the final 4 so the conference looks good.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

I'd like to see both Baylor and TCU make it to the final 4 so the conference looks good.

I like it when lakeman74 posts