The Texas Longhorns begin the 2025 college football season in an unusual position. They are ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll, yet they are underdogs in their first game.
In Week 1, Texas faces No. 3 Ohio State at Ohio Stadium in Columbus. This is the first time since 1978 that a preseason No. 1 team has opened the season as an underdog. Oddsmakers currently have Ohio State as a slight favorite.
While the rankings indicate that Texas is the top team, the betting markets suggest a more complicated outlook.
Regular Season Win Total
Texas’ regular-season win total is set at 9.5 games. The over is priced at -190, meaning bettors would need to risk $190 to win $100. That price reflects a strong market expectation that the Longhorns will win at least 10 games. It suggests that, on paper, Texas is expected to be favored in most of its regular-season matchups.
The under is +155, meaning a $100 wager would return $155 in profit if Texas finishes with nine or fewer wins. This higher payout signals that fewer than 10 wins is seen as an underdog outcome, but still possible given the competitive nature of the SEC and their tough nonconference opener against Ohio State.
This total forces bettors to consider several factors:
- Schedule Strength: Texas is entering its first SEC season, which will bring several challenging road games and matchups against ranked opponents.
- Key Games: The opener against Ohio State, divisional games against power programs like Georgia or Alabama (depending on the rotation), and rivalry matchups could swing the total.
- Health and Depth: Sustaining success over an SEC schedule will require keeping key players, especially quarterback Arch Manning, healthy.
If Texas starts the year with a win over Ohio State, it could have a ripple effect across all betting markets. Texas Longhorns odds on the over 9.5 could become even more expensive, potentially pushing the total to 10 in some markets, which would raise the bar for an over bet to an undefeated or one-loss season.
SEC Championship Odds
Texas is priced at +280 to win the SEC Championship in its first year in the conference. This payout means a $100 wager would return $280 in profit if they capture the title. Those odds place the Longhorns near the top of the conference futures board, behind only the most established SEC powers such as Georgia and Alabama.
This position in the market reflects two main factors. First, there is optimism about Texas’ roster, led by quarterback Arch Manning and supported by a deep offensive line, skill position talent, and an improving defense. Bettors and oddsmakers view this as a team built to compete immediately, even in a tougher league.
Second, there is recognition of the challenges Texas will face. The SEC is widely regarded as the deepest and most competitive conference in college football. Winning the league requires surviving a demanding schedule that often includes multiple top-10 opponents, challenging road environments, and a championship game against another elite team.
National Championship Odds
Texas has seen its national championship odds improve from +500 to +475. While that 25-point shift may appear minor, in futures betting it signals meaningful market movement. A change like this typically comes from either significant betting volume on one team or an adjustment based on updated evaluations of the roster, coaching staff, and competition.
This improvement confirms that Texas is viewed as one of the top two or three favorites to win it all. The move could be influenced by strong preseason practice reports, the presence of quarterback Arch Manning, and the overall depth of their roster on both sides of the ball. It can also reflect changes in the outlook for other contenders — for example, if a key rival suffers injuries or underperforms in early camp.
For bettors, the shorter odds mean the potential payout is smaller than it was a month ago, but it also means the market believes Texas’s path to a title is slightly more likely than before. Continued positive results, notably a win over Ohio State in the opener, could cause another shift, potentially pushing the Longhorns closer to the +400 range.
College Football Playoff No. 1 Seed
Texas is +500 to finish the regular season as the top seed in the College Football Playoff. This market reflects only regular-season results, meaning Texas would likely need to go undefeated or take a single close loss while building a more substantial résumé than every other contender.
A win over Ohio State in Week 1 would be a significant boost, but an SEC schedule leaves little margin for error. The price reflects both the belief in Texas’ talent and the challenge of maintaining dominance in their first year in the league. For more insight on how early-season matchups can impact playoff seeding, check out FanDuel’s NCAAF Season Trends.
Takeaway
The overall trend is strongly in the Longhorn’s favor. Texas is positioned as one of the top programs in the country, with markets reflecting confidence in their ability to contend for championships at both the conference and national level. With a talented roster, high-profile quarterback play, and momentum building before Week 1, the Longhorns enter the season with expectations matching their No. 1 preseason ranking.
