No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Ohio State meet on Friday at AT&T Stadium in the College Football Playoff Semifinals with a trip to the national championship game on the line. The Longhorns boast an impressive 13-2 record with both losses coming at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs, while Ohio State holds a 12-2 record with losses against Michigan and and Oregon. The 13 wins are the most by the Texas program since 2009, and just the third 13-win season in school history.
This matchup will be the first of the CFP in which the Longhorns are underdogs, with Ohio State currently playing as the +6 favorite. The weather is inclement in the Dallas area, with snow and rain potentially hindering travel for fans. The Cotton Bowl, however, is a familiar place for the Longhorns. They have the most appearances in the Bowl by any team (23) and defeated the LSU Tigers 35-20 last time they played in it.
Ohio State has a hot hand as of late, including a 41-20 whipping of the top-ranked Oregon Ducks in the CFP Quarterfinals in Pasadena. Steve Sarkisian and Texas managed a 39-31 win in double-overtime over Arizona State after watching a comfortable early lead vanish.
It is high-stakes football at AT&T Stadium on Friday night, and the Longhorns must play near mistake-free football if they intend to make the national championship game for the third time this century. They will have their hands full with a prolific Buckeye offense led by Kansas State transfer Will Howard.
Howard is 0-4 against Texas in his career from his days in Manhattan. Will the Longhorns deny him again? Or will Ryan Day and Ohio State cruise to another victory? Our staff shares their thoughts on how this CFP Semifinal will play out, with an appearance in the CFP National Championship on the line.
Jameson McCausland
It was widely believed heading into 2024 that Ohio State had the best roster in the country. The Buckeyes made several splashes in the transfer portal and convinced several NFL draft prospects to return to Columbus for another season. Defensively, the Buckeyes have 8-9 players who may be selected in the upcoming NFL draft. Many people will point to the loss to Michigan, but that appears to be more and more of a one-off lousy performance than something that can easily be replicated.
For Texas, they have the second-best overall roster left in the playoff. The Longhorns are littered with NFL draft picks defensively and appear to be better equipped to slow down the Ohio State offense than Tennessee or Oregon. The bigger question is how Texas will move the ball on offense. The Longhorns have played with their food offensively for much of the playoffs, a carryover from how they finished the regular season. Brilliant stretches are followed by stretches where the 3-and-outs or turnovers pile up fast.
The odds are that Steve Sarkisian will have some schemed-up offense to help Texas throw some punches early, but it’s tough to trust that unit for a full 60 minutes. I think the Longhorns put up a good fight but Ohio State squeaks out a close one to advance to the National Championship.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 28, Texas 24
Aaron Carrara
These are two extremely talented teams with very deep rosters. Ohio State appears to be firing on all cylinders offensively and defensively while the Texas offense has been unpredictable. The lack of a running game has really hurt the Longhorns and forced them to be one-dimensional againstg Arizona State. With that said, the arm of Quinn Ewers and big play capability of Matthew Golden allowed the ‘Horns to skirt by the Sun Devils and make an appearance in the semifinal game. The ‘Horns must look past that in-game execution and focus on balancing the offense. Texas wins this game if Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue can run the ball, as this will slow the game down and allow for parity in time of possession. If they cannot get things going on the ground, Will Howard and Jeremiah Smith could win this game for the Buckeyes in the first half – they are that good offensively and do not squander opportunities in the red zone (ranked 2nd nationally).
For all the praise thrown to Ohio State, Texas deserves some as well. When Texas brings their ‘A” game, there isn’t a team in the country that can beat them. Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense will keep this team in every game. Paired with a dialed-in Quinn Ewers and a successful rushing attack, the synergy of the two units can win just about every football game in which they play.
I think Texas knows how close they were to losing the Peach Bowl and will rely on the mental and physical “toughness” Sarkisian talks about when mentioning his team. The Longhorns ride an upset win for another trip to Atlanta for their first appearance in the national championship game since 2009.
Score Prediction: Texas 31, Ohio State 27
Devon Messinger
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Well, I would like to think that we will figure that out this Friday. After a narrow win over Arizona State in the last round, the Longhorns will look to beat Ohio State in the semifinal round of the College Football Playoffs.
For many reasons, I expect Friday’s matchup to be a difficult one for the Longhorns. Of course, Ohio State has been excellent all year long, but it is the number of playmakers they have at multiple positions which will make for a good litmus test for Steve Sarkisian’s squad. While that might rule out 99% of opponents from the get go, this year’s Texas team has loads of NFL talent as well.
Unfortunately for Texas, their inconsistencies on the offensive side of the ball may come to haunt them in a game that features the two best teams in college football. Against Arizona State, Quinn Ewers had a heck of a performance to win the Longhorns that matchup. However, he is going to have to play the role of Superman once again if the Texas running game continues to be an issue.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 24, Texas 20
Marc Henry
Texas enters their semifinal matchup against Ohio State needing to reestablish their ground game, with Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue key to their success. Limiting turnovers and converting in the red zone will be crucial offensively. Defensively, the Longhorns must contain Ohio State’s rushing duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins while preventing big plays from receiver Jeremiah Smith. Execution on both sides will determine Texas’s path to the championship.
Score Prediction: Texas 17, Ohio State 10
Dylan DeRaud
The winter weather in Dallas won’t be the only thing freezing this week. Ohio State has crushed Tennessee and Oregon in the playoffs, scoring over 40 points in both games by leaning on their star wide receivers. Texas has the talent to keep up, but it all comes down to their defense stopping big plays. If they can pressure Will Howard and keep Quinn Ewers from playing catch-up, they’ll have a real chance. I think Ewers will have the best game of his career, and Texas’s defense will finally slow Ohio State down.
Score Prediction: Texas 21, Ohio State 20
Mitch Lovell
This will be the biggest challenge for the 2024 Longhorns but Ohio State is beatable. They’ve lost twice this year, including scoring just 10 points at home against Michigan. To their credit, they have looked much better in the CFP. Bottom line is I’m going down with the ship along side Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers. To battle back against Arizona State the way they did showed that this Texas team has championship-level fight and heart. The Longhorns will finally answer their second half woes and win a nail-biter to get to their first national championship game in 15 years.
Score Prediction: Texas 27, Ohio State 20
