Texas escaped with a thrilling 68-66 victory over NC State in the First Four, and while it was far from pretty, especially down the stretch, the NCAA Tournament is all about survive and advance. The Longhorns have little time to celebrate, though. They’re headed to Portland for a Thursday showdown with BYU, a significant step up in competition that will demand a much sharper performance if Texas wants to keep its season alive.
BYU presents a genuine offensive challenge for any defense, and Texas’ defensive struggles this season make that matchup all the more concerning. Freshman wing AJ Dybantsa is arguably the best first-year player in the country, no small claim in what has been an exceptional freshman class nationally. Alongside him, Baylor transfer guard Robert Wright provides a second scoring punch, averaging over 18 points per game in his own right. The Cougars entered the season ranked No. 8 in the country on the strength of that talent, climbing as high as No. 7 before an uneven year took hold.
BYU battled to a respectable 9-9 finish in Big 12 play, but the season took a difficult turn when guard Richie Sanders suffered a season-ending knee injury. Sanders had been a key contributor, averaging 18 points per game and shooting better than 37% from three, the kind of player whose absence ripples through an entire offense. The Cougars went just 2-4 down the stretch without him, and the drop-off has been visible. Still, with Dybantsa leading the way, BYU remains a dangerous and capable opponent.
Dybantsa Will Get His Portion
Dybantsa averaged over 25 points and nearly seven rebounds per game this season, numbers that would be impressive for any player, let alone a freshman. He punctuated his debut year by breaking Kevin Durant’s record for most points scored by a freshman in a Big 12 Tournament game, dropping 40 on Kansas State. When you’re erasing Kevin Durant’s name from the record books, you’re operating on a different level entirely. No team, Texas included, is going to shut Dybantsa down, and that’s simply the reality. The goal isn’t to silence him completely, it’s to prevent him from taking over a game single-handedly with a 40-point explosion that makes the outcome irrelevant.
The natural instinct is to throw a double-team at Dybantsa and force someone else to beat you, but that strategy carries its own risks. Collapsing on him opens the floor for his teammates, including Robert Wright, who shoots better than 42% from three. You cannot afford to give a shooter like that clean looks from the perimeter. The Longhorns have to find a balance, contain Dybantsa enough to keep him from going off, while not surrendering easy buckets to the players around him. If Wright gets comfortable and reaches 25 points alongside Dybantsa, Texas’ chances become very slim, very fast. Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain are the likely candidates to draw Dybantsa assignments, and keeping both out of foul trouble will be critical, not just defensively, but for the Texas offense as well. BYU scored nearly 84 points per game in a tough Big 12 schedule, which means the Longhorns will need considerably more offensive firepower than they showed against NC State.
Vokietaitis Must Stay Out of Foul Trouble
Sophomore Matas Vokietaitis represents Texas’ single biggest advantage heading into this matchup. The seven-footer has the tools to be a game-changer, and the matchup invites it. BYU doesn’t roster anyone taller than 6’8″, giving Vokietaitis a clear and exploitable size edge. He averages around seven rebounds per game, and anything short of double figures on the glass Thursday night would be a missed opportunity. Winning the rebounding battle and converting second-chance points could very well be the difference in a close game.
Foul trouble, however, remains the central concern. Vokietaitis hasn’t played a game with fewer than four fouls since the LSU matchup on February 17th, and that trend cannot continue against a team as offensively dynamic as BYU. Picking up cheap early fouls and spending stretches of the first half on the bench would be costly, especially given how thin Texas is in the frontcourt behind him. Simply put, the Longhorns’ ceiling in this game is directly tied to how Vokietaitis performs. If he’s the best player on the floor for Texas, they have a real shot. If he’s not, it’s going to be a long night in Portland.
TV, Time, Location
Tip-off is set for 6:25 p.m. CST at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, with television coverage on TBS.
