View from the Cheap Seats-2016 Spring game

[echeese]

We should begin with the standard caveat. . .this was the spring game.  It is often a zero sum game.  .. and often does not tell the full story.   This also marks the beginning of the WORST 140 days of sports but who's counting.   Yep, 140 days between the last scrimmage of Spring and the Labor Day Kickoff of the 2016 season.   Sometimes I wonder if the "news" being pushed out is really more spin.   While Swoopes looked better than he has in the past, it's pretty clear to even the most uneducated observer that Shane Buechele is the future for TEXAS at QB.   So it makes me question where Swoopes ever was "ahead" or they were playing close.   Have not read or watched any of the post game so if CFS is still trying to sell a QB battle, he's blowing smoke, this one wasn't close.
 
#1 offseason concern was QB. . . folks we have a QB. . . yep, he's a true freshman. . . yep, we aren't winning a National Title this year.   I doubt we are even competing for the BigXII . . . more on that later.  But we have someone who can make the right reads, who can get the ball to our WRs and who can take the pressure off our running game which appears to be even better than 2015.  Without completely over-hyping the kid, he does have some Colt McCoy in him.   Certainly didn't appear overwhelmed, certainly needs to add some muscle, certainly not the big arm of Chris Simms but he does have an awareness and understanding of the game we have not seen since the 1st quarter of the Bama title game.   Josh Rosen was a true freshmen for UCLA last year, similar talent situation to TEXAS (though a bit more experienced).  He finished #55 in QB ranking.   If Shane is in the 50-60 range (and I think he can get up as high as 40 in this offense), we will climb to an above average BigXII team.
 
Here is the 2016 vision.   Shane can take enough heat off the running game to get us to between 7-9 regular season wins.   face it, CFS is our HC in 2017. . .what we need in 2017 is to be in the BigXII title hunt till the end of the year.  We need to close out games in the 4th quarter.  CFS has yet to win a game at TEXAS he's trailing in the 4th.   He has to figure that out to take the next step.  To win a Natty, the D is going to have to be Top 10-20 in the nation good.   I think with a year or 2 under his belt, Shane and this offense have the talent to score with anyone in the nation (again, projecting 2017 and 18 here)
 
Norte Dame    
 
UTEP   win
 
@Cal Win
 
@OkState

OU

ISU   Win

@KSU  Win

Baylor

@ TT   Win

WVU

@ Kansas Win

TCU


6 games we should win/be favored in,  OSU and WVU games we can win. . . keep in mind that TCU is breaking in new QB while both TCU and Baylor lost a bunch of talent to graduation.  Face it, the one team Charlie has the number of is OU.

So offensively, things are looking much better for us than this time last year.   Now granted, our OL had the advantage as they were up against our DL which is my #1 concern now, moving up from #2 prior to Shane's performance.   Top concern about the OL is that we are thin and cannot afford injury which is not uncommon when your OL (or any unit) is talented but young.

Lost in the break out performance of Shane and the RBs being exactly who we thought they were was our WRs.   After RB, might be the most talented position group on the O and might rival the DBs for most talented on the team (though I still give the nod to the DBs).   

As mentioned, Spring game is a zero sum game and as good as the offense looked. . . . .they were going up against our defense.    Our defense did not look good.   Which makes sense, it all starts upfront and let's be candid.  .. we miss Harsin, we miss Tank.   We have no real "disrupt-er" up front.  We have young talent inbound but we need at least 2 of our true freshmen to provide depth and contribute at DT.   Can Erick Fowler or Andrew Fitzgerald step onto campus and be the edge rusher?   Let's hope so and the emergence of Wheeler as a Mike (middle LB) allows MJ to slide out to his natural OLB spot.

But today, the front 4 is our #1 concern on D and the area holding back a very talented back 7

Most exciting group was the secondary, lots of young guns back there and nice to see Sheriod Evans making a few plays.  6th year Senior who I hope can contribute this year.  This might not be the best group of DBs in the BigXII in 2016 but come 2017. . . . .they should be.    You maybe sensing a theme. . .we remain a year away.

Special teams?   Will they be special?   Who knows.   We have no idea what we have at PK. . . punting seemed OK, nothing special.   Think the infusion of new, highly athletic talent bodes well for the coverage and return teams but PK is #2 after DL in terms of concerns in my book.

Remember it is the nature of college football to turnover 20% or so of a team every year so there will always be a concern.   Think our O is going to be 20-25% improved this year.  Sadly, from a D that wasn't all that good last year, I think they take a step back unless true freshmen make a huge impact.   And please don't try to spin "advanced analytics" on me. . . .we were not a good D last year and those stats are more applicable to fantasy football than wins or losses.

See this as an Alamo Bowl kinda year and see us winning the game

Ranking the BigXII:

• OU (oh lordy does that suck to type)

• Baylor

• TCU

• Baylor gets a slight nod as both teams lost a bunch but Baylor isn't replacing their QB

• TEXAS/OSU-coin flip to me

• WVU

• KSU/TT

• ISU

• Kansas

 

[Duke C #11]

Thanks, Chuck. I always look forward to your takes.

 

[TeamMayhall]

great read.

 

[MBHORNSFAN]

Shane will be the starter. All the BS practice hype over Swoopes is just that BS. I kept hearing people say players "can  improve" Well of course they can but Swoopes has reached his ceiling. Time for the Shane era to begin.

 

[Danny Hale]

the starter at QB will be more about who improves the most between now and notre dame. the Swoopes as starter era is over barring injury but he can still be effective in specialized role "18 wheeler". Buechele oddly has the most experience in this offense and is probably who the WR`s want as QB. Heard to me has the biggest upside if he can improve enough as passer because his running ability in this offense would be lethal. sadly what makes Heard stand out can only be seen in live action. my hope is Gilbert will alter his play calling for the strength of each QB because it is highly likely all 3 QB`s will be needed at some point during season. they all have strengths unique to them but each also has weaknesses 

 

[83Dee]

Chuck, great read!  But you think our defense will take a "step back" this year?  If this is true, say bye bye to Charlie.  This was the worst statistical defense in school history last year.  Worse than anything Macovick trotted out there!  For them to take a step back, it will be the two worst defenses in school history back to back.  There is no way they have a decent year with a defense worse than last year.  Just firing Bedford will not suffice if the D is worse. 

I think the defense will be better - only because we play in the Big 12.  Our defense is being built to stop high flying spread offenses.  Very good and deep at DB; good (fast) LB's and I agree our DTs are troublesome, but I actually thought out DEs looked good (Omenihu and Hager in particular).  But, both are smallish pass rusher types (Big 12 ready).  This D would likely get gutted against a power running team; but in the Big 12 - maybe not so much? 

 

[joeywa]

Nice recap Chuck. Thanks for posting.