The Common Man Prediction Thread – Mormon aggy

[Sirhornsalot]

BYU comes to visit Austin this week with a 4-2 record and some momentum behind them.

This will not be an easy game for our Longhorns, by any stretch. They are tough defensively and effecient on offense, very methodical. They also have some talent at the WRs.

Given that we're missing our QB and this will be a greenhand's first start, I am expecting less from our offense until Murphy gives me reason to believe. That said, Murphy has the tools, knows the offense and should do just fine.

Texas 24
BYU 17

 

[Capn Hook]

Texas 31

Younguns 14

 

[BWilk55]

This will not be an easy game for our Longhorns, by any stretch. They are tough defensively and effecient on offense, very methodical. They also have some talent at the WRs.

Numbers show them as being pretty bad on offense. Rank 122 in offensive EPA, 129 in offensive success rate. Our defense continues to be very successful at stopping the run, 4th in rush EPA. I think they will be hard pressed to break 20 points in this game. If we get some DBs back healthy and improve our communication in the defensive backfield they could be very limited in what they can do with WRs that aren't the athletes that UH has.

Defense is definitely their strength and they are good at stopping the run, 15th in rush EPA. They are middle of the pack against the pack at 69th in pass EPA. They are a good team at stopping scoring once opponents cross the 50 yard line and they are a good field position team. If we find success running against them, I think we will be able to move the ball consistently and put up a decent amount of points. If we can't and become reliantly on MM to move the ball through the air, I'd expected some inconsitency and perhaps some TOs that could slow us down.

Texas 28
BYU 14

 

[longhorndon]

I just hope none of their players turns into Taysom Hill.

 

[Soldierhorn]

[Some taken from a Gerry Hamilton article.]

For a beat up defense, the doctor ordered a bad offense (the worst in the conference) and that's what BYU brings to Memorial stadium this week.

Total offense
BYU is 122nd out of 130 teams averaging 301.9 yards per game. That places BYU last in the Big 12 conference.

Passing offense
BYU is 74th out of 130 teams recording 222.6 yards per game. That places the Cougars 12th in the Big 12 conference.

Passing yards per completion
BYU is 70th out of 130 teams, averaging 11.98 yards per completion.

Team Passing efficiency rating
BYU checks in at 80th out of 130 teams, with a 129.72 team passing efficiency rating.

Rushing offense
They have struggled to run the ball to the point of being 128th out of 130 teams, averaging just 79.3 yards per game. That is last in the Big 12.

First downs
The Cougars are 123rd out of 130 teams in first downs. That ranks 13th in the Big 12.

3rd down conversion percentage
The Cougars are 124th out of 130 teams, converting 28 of 93 third down’s for 30.1%. That is last in the Big 12.

4th down conversion percentage
6 of 12 for 50%

Red zone offense
A positive for BYU is they are 23rd out of 130 teams in efficiency, but only have 23 trips into the red zone in seven games.

Tackles for loss allowed
BYU is 60th out of 130 teams, surrendering 5.43 tackle for loss per game.

BYU in four Big 12 games
BYU has gone over 300 yards of offense just once in four games in conference play. And that was the conference opener against Kansas. In the last three games, BYU is averaging 271.7 yards per game. Even with the 366 yards against Kansas, the Cougars are averaging just 295 yards of offense in Big 12 play. The Cougars put up 295 yards against Cincinnati, 243 yards in a 44-11 loss at TCU and 277 yards last night in a home win over Texas Tech.

And, they are not doing much better rushing the ball. BYU has averaged just 2.86 yards per rush in conference play, with only 320 yards on the ground (total). They are averaging 16.8 first downs per game, which is 13th in the conference. And the Cougars have converted just 16 of 53 third downs through four conference games, for 30.2%.+

And, these stats are not against 0U, UT, KSU, or oSu

 

[longhorn_mig]

Texas 31
BYU 20

 

[DBut82]

Texas 27
BYU 17

 

[Sunkist]

Well well well…QE3 is hurt for 4 weeks or so and due to slow starts and strong finishes earlier (except for last week) and close games generally, our backup QB has gotten very little meaningful snaps. I have confidence in MM and Arch’s talent but they just lack experience.

Whomever is QB is surrounded by NFL talent who generally seem underutilized. Run the damn ball and throw it deep where it doesn’t hurt us if it’s picked off. But really just run it 70% of the time. Make sure everyone blocks well bc they don’t always.

The defense (secondary especially) has some injuries and until we are fully healthy, teams will exploit our deficiencies. We also don’t hit the QB well even if we blitz.

This will be a tough game and the TOs will keep BYU in it. The Horns fight. Slow and back and forth. Bend don’t break. Hook ‘em!

Texas 27
BYU 23

 

[Soldierhorn]

36-7

 

[hookemhorb]

We have too many weapons on offense. Wright could QB this team to victory over BYU. The D Fence shows up and it's sack you very much.

Texas 38
BYU 10

 

[Ntx dog]

The type of team that Tx always has issues with. A less talanted better coached team Lets see what " we weren't expecting them to do so and so " Sark comes up after the game this week.. To make it worse we go forward with qb's with no meaningful experience due to this team's inability to put away lesser teams early in the year.
No offense...the D finally caves.

BYU 24-Tx 17

 

[Coot]

UT has injuries all over the field, most notably at QB, O-Line and DB. The Longhorns have historically had problems with BYU.
So the outcome of this game seems obvious.
UT-45 : BYU-10

 

[Billybass]

Until I see a better pass defense, I don’t think we beat anybody very bad.
However, I ain’t ever pickin the Horns to lose.

Horns 27
BYU 23

 

[Hiwood]

per Oddshark the line just plummeted down to Texas minus 17-5....IMO MM and Texas are gonna break a lot of parlay cards this week

 

[BWilk55]

per Oddshark the line just plummeted down to Texas minus 17-5....IMO MM and Texas are gonna break a lot of parlay cards this week

I don't think they have the offensive firepower to score much against us. I don't think they can even take advantage of our defensive backfield issues.

I don't think our offense will have enough firepower to really pull away from teams. I think a 14-17 point win this week is reasonable, I would not bet Texas or the over in this game.

 

[Hiwood]

I don't think they have the offensive firepower to score much against us. I don't think they can even take advantage of our defensive backfield issues.

I don't think our offense will have enough firepower to really pull away from teams. I think a 14-17 point win this week is reasonable, I would not bet Texas or the over in this game.

I see where you're coming from but Texas is going to need style points and no better time than now, I wouldn't touch the game either from a betting standpoint, but like JD Pickell said earlier this week " MM isn't QE, but then QE isn't a MM"

its time for Texas to prove that their QB room was as deep as many suggested

If Texas wants to run up a score they will need scores from the defense and maybe one from special teams

 

[Austin Horn]

I think Texas wins it close. The secondary against the deep ball is gonna keep me up at night.

 

[NEOkHorn]

41-13 Horns.

 

[Hiwood]

also slight correction having spent lots of time in Utah hunting and running field trials

BYU is not Mormon Aggy, that distinction belongs to Utah State is the real Mormon Aggy located in beautiful Logan Utah
BYU is deep roots Mormon located in Provo, I had trouble finding a Starbucks there and when you order a Coke product at a restaurant its the tip off that you aren't from around Provo

Utah University located in the heart of Salt Lake City is the public school for the kids who could afford BYU and Brock Mendenhall has the best team in Utah and has recruited lots of non Mormon kids or kids that might be called "jack Mormons", which most of my Mormon friends fall into that group

 

[General Hooker]

This team is hard to figure. Since we barely beat an awful team last week on the road, maybe we can beat an equally awful team at home with our backup QB. I think Murphy will do well since he will be prepared to start with a game plan designed for him (one can hope). But if the offense struggles, many of us will be calling for Manning, myself included.

Texas 34
BYOB 21