Playoff prediction Sugar Bowl

[lshorn79]

My prediction for the Texas/Washington game.
Yards don't equal points and FGs won't win the game. You have to score TDs.
Texas 52
Washington 29

Hoping to grab some tix day of. Will be in NOLA.

I have heard that ticket prices have started to drop.

 

[DMAC]

I'm taking Bama, has Michigan faced a defense like theirs? Maybe Penn St. I wouldn't like that outcome because if we beat Washington and Bama is waiting for us I don't think we beat them twice.

This game rides on Milrose but Im taking Bama as well. Yea im hoping for Bama v Texas rematch so we leave no doubt. All Gas No Fn Brakes

 

[Austin Horn]

It’s going to be close. I got Texas winning it.

 

[Hiwood]

Why spy Penix? He’s rushed for -18 yds this year.

not worried about his rushing but when he breaks containment, he throws very well and knows how to make plays...I also think he is not the smartest of QB's and make lots of throws he shouldn't make especially at this point of his college career, he has one speed for all his throws

 

[Chapalahorn]

I’ve made my prediction but I just hope Sark has at least one play like this up his sleeve. Line up Niblett in the backfield and motion him out just before the snap. When he gets just outside the TE or T, plant the foot and run a quick slant behind the LB’s and hit him. With his speed, he’ll probably run until tomorrow.

 

[DMAC]

Most of the clips I watched the Washington OL is either very good or the DLs they have faced are not great. I know they won the Joe Moore award.

It will be interesting to see how much time Penix has vs our DL. This play he has like 5 secs before he releases the ball. I am probably being over confident here but I tend to think he will not have half as much time most plays. Regardless I think we beat them by 14+ if Ewers is on his game.

 

[Wayne]

Most of the clips I watched the Washington OL is either very good or the DLs they have faced are not great. I know they won the Joe Moore award.

It will be interesting to see how much time Penix has vs our DL. This play he has like 5 secs before he releases the ball. I am probably being over confident here but I tend to think he will not have half as much time most plays. Regardless I think we beat them by 14+ if Ewers is on his game.

They only rushed three on that play. Let’s hope we don’t do that.

 

[TXFF]

Here's an interesting analysis of the trenches. If this plays out, Texas dominates the LOS on both sides of the ball.

Texas Football: 4 reasons why UT can handily defeat UW in CFP semifinal

 

[DMAC]

They only rushed three on that play. Let’s hope we don’t do that.

Obviously if it was only a 3 man rush that would make sense but its a 4 man rush. Three down and LT takes the edge that was split wide. The right side the TE chips the edge which made zero push.

 

[BWilk55]

Texas defense holds Washington to less than 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. Penix throws 2 ints.

Texas goes over 300 passing and 150 rushing.

Texas 37- Washington 27

 

[DMAC]

All this focus is on Washington's offense. Their defense is terrible, ours is not. That is why we win

 

[DMAC]

How much weight does the IOL give up to Sweat and Byron? I read somewhere it was 30+ I remember correctly.

 

[TXFF]

How much weight does the IOL give up to Sweat and Byron? I read somewhere it was 30+ I remember correctly.

The article in message #68 goes through all of that. UW has not faced OLs and DLs like ours this year. I suspect we stuff the run and pressure Penix into a below average day. On offense, Sark will establish an effective running and short passing game, control the clock, and opportunistically hit them for the occasional deep ball. If Texas plays like the last two games (and I think they will), then this isn't that close of a score.

 

[DMAC]

through though even though I thought

When my eyes hit this part it short circuited my brain for a second

 

[DMAC]

The article in message #68 goes through all of that. UW has not faced OLs and DLs like ours this year. I suspect we stuff the run and pressure Penix into a below average day. On offense, Sark will establish an effective running and short passing game, control the clock, and opportunistically hit them for the occasional deep ball. If Texas plays like the last two games (and I think they will), then this isn't that close of a score.

Ah yea thats where I read it. Good stuff

 

[Sunkist]

When my eyes hit this part it short circuited my brain for a second

lots of booze this holiday season. Not stopping yet as the party continues for many reasons well beyond Dec 31!

 

[Baron]

Defensive stats.
Third down conversion defense
Wash ranks 81st at .403
Texas ranks 2nd at .265
4th down conversion defense
Wash ranks 28th at .429
Texas ranks 42nd at .462
1st downs allowed
Wash ranks 124th with 106 rushing and 149 passing
Texas ranks 26th with 66 rushing and 139 passing
Pass defense
Wash ranks 119th with 263.2 yards per game
Texas ranks 93rd with 240.8 yards per game
Red Zone defense
Wash ranks 73rd with 18 rushing touchdowns, 13 passing and 6 FG's
Texas ranks 3rd with 5 rushing touchdowns, 11 passing and 9 FG's
Rushing defense
Wash ranks 37th with 133.8 yards per game
Texas ranks 3rd with 80.8 per game
Sacks
Wash ranks 120th with 19
Texas ranks 36th with 32
Tackles for loss
Wash ranks 117th with 57
Texas ranks 29th with 82
Total D
Wash ranks 90th at 396.9 ypg
Texas ranks 25th at 321.7 ypg
Turnover margin
Wash ranks 61st at +1
Texas ranks 21st at +7

Defense is where the game will be won. Washington's defense is pedestrian at best.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

10-1

That's about the ratio of Texas vs huskie fans in New Orleans. We have definitely planted our flag here. I know proximity plays a role as I've talked to several people here that aren't going to the game, just want to take it all in.

As for the game, close early, but we pull away. 14 to 17 point victory.

 

[TXFF]

Defensive stats.
Third down conversion defense
Wash ranks 81st at .403
Texas ranks 2nd at .265
4th down conversion defense
Wash ranks 28th at .429
Texas ranks 42nd at .462
1st downs allowed
Wash ranks 124th with 106 rushing and 149 passing
Texas ranks 26th with 66 rushing and 139 passing
Pass defense
Wash ranks 119th with 263.2 yards per game
Texas ranks 93rd with 240.8 yards per game
Red Zone defense
Wash ranks 73rd with 18 rushing touchdowns, 13 passing and 6 FG's
Texas ranks 3rd with 5 rushing touchdowns, 11 passing and 9 FG's
Rushing defense
Wash ranks 37th with 133.8 yards per game
Texas ranks 3rd with 80.8 per game
Sacks
Wash ranks 120th with 19
Texas ranks 36th with 32
Tackles for loss
Wash ranks 117th with 57
Texas ranks 29th with 82
Total D
Wash ranks 90th at 396.9 ypg
Texas ranks 25th at 321.7 ypg
Turnover margin
Wash ranks 61st at +1
Texas ranks 21st at +7

Defense is where the game will be won. Washington's defense is pedestrian at best.

You are correct. And, to be fair, Texas' total Pass Defense would be better if running the ball was a viable option for opponents. PK's run defense leaves them no choice but to pass so they're going to gain some yards that way. However, scoring from the red zone is tough.

 

[DMAC]