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OT: Mel Kiper's First Mock Draft

BevoBlake

That Design Guy
Joined
Nov 12, 2013
Messages
3,038
I thought folks here would find this interesting considering we have a lot of Texan and Cowboy fans here. Not to mention, Johnny Football has declared for the NFL Draft. It's ESPN Insider, so I'm not sure how much information Horn Sports feels comfortable with me sharing. Here are a few picks that seem the most interesting:

Houston Texans 1st Overall

Johnny Manziel - QB - Texas A&M

Analysis: I spoke to a number of high-ranking NFL evaluators this week, and this is the one QB anyone felt certain was a top-5 pick. So consider this an early bet, with one major caveat: Bill O'Brien just arrived, is still putting his staff together, knows a good QB when he sees one, and hasn't had enough time (if any) to study the draft class. But we know quarterback is a major need here. O'Brien likes a QB with presence, a leader and a guy who will out-prepare the competition. And while Manziel has gotten his share of bad press, he's a dynamic talent, and I feel he can lead at the next level; I'm not alone in that opinion. While Manziel is currently ranked No. 11 on my Big Board, this reflects the draft.

 

Manziel doesn't fit the old prototypes of a QB drafted No. 1, and I have concerns about how well he can protect himself given his smaller frame, but he is a magician on the field, and is made for the current NFL. This league protects and welcomes QBs who can improvise, run and make plays beyond the playbook. It's early, but Manziel is a special player and has the draft process to prove it further.

Jacksonville Jaguars 3rd Overall

Jadeveon Clowney - DE - South Carolina

Analysis: There is no question that the Jags need a QB. It is questionable whether they will take one at this draft slot unless they believe that QB will make them better at that position in 2014. So consider this an early bet on a front office that will look to hit what is still a major need (the pass rush) by drafting the best available player in the draft. Clowney got questioned on his motor in his final college season, but that has more to do with stats than the tape. And any evaluator who saw a tentative player could also imagine what Clowney had on the line. Clowney is physically prepared to come in and make a major impact, and I think there's a good chance the Jags draft for upside and angle for a QB later. Don't forget: Free agency and trades can still shift the QB market in the draft. Think of Kansas City last year at this time.

 

As well, I recall when the Texans took Mario Williams at a time when QB was a question, and their GM told us it wasn't just about needing a QB, it was about the QBs they had to beat. Peyton Manning was in the division. Indy still has a good QB the Jags have to face.

Minnesota Vikings 8th Overall

Terry Bridgewater - QB - Louisville

Analysis: In terms of his ability as a passer, Bridgewater could go higher. But while I currently have him rated as the top QB on my Big Board, Bridgewater will need to prove to teams that he can command an NFL huddle and be the face of a franchise. I think he has the necessary physical tools to succeed, and shows an advanced approach with his footwork, anticipation, pre-snap command and ability to improvise. He's a very good value here for a team with a huge need at the position. Whether he can start right away is a question we'll need more time to answer.

Dallas Cowboys 17th Overall

HaHa Clinton-Dix - S - Alabama

Analysis: I don't see a decent free safety solution on the Cowboys' roster, and good ones typically don't make it to free agency, so this pick lines up need and board value pretty effectively. Clinton-Dix has the range to handle the deep role in man-free coverage as he did for Nick Saban. He has good instincts, is generally strong with his routes and angles to the ball, and does a good job of not letting quarterbacks get him going in the wrong direction with their eyes.


And here is the Insider Link for anyone with Insider: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10283026/2014-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-unveils-first-mock-draft

 
As a Texans fan, no thank you. And I NEVER call him Johnny Football. Or JFF or Johnny anything except maybe Johnny Aggy or Johnny Attention Whore.

 
I'm simply not convinced he's a #1 Overall Pick. Not this year, not next year and not last year. He's a talented athlete, I'll never say otherwise. But I don't think his body build or style of play lends itself well to the NFL. The other hard to believe part for me was Jacksonville passing on Bridgewater. Not that Clowney isn't a freak athlete but Bridgewater is largely considered the consensus #1 Overall Pick this year and he's a Florida boy.

 
What is Mel's hit rate?

About 20% ?

Bob McNair's son Cal played at UT for 4 years and is #2 in control of the team.

I have faith that he will not let this happen.

 
Who do they have the Giants taking? LB'er?
Good guess.

New York Giants 12th Overall

C.J. Mosley - LB - Alabama

Analysis: The Giants never draft linebackers in the first round, but if a player of Mosley's caliber is on the board, I think that streak could end. If not for the signing of Jon Beason, this linebacking corps would have been even more of a mess in 2013, and Beason isn't yet a lock for 2014. I'm not sure any team in the NFL has a greater need at the position. Mosley is instinctive and fast, deft in coverage and a physical tackler even if he's not big for the position. He offers immediate help.

 
Manziel is an exceptional athlete but I don't know if his game translates that we'll to the pros. His arm is avg and some of those ducks he throws up when he's in trouble will be sure INT's.

 
Manziel is an exceptional athlete but I don't know if his game translates that we'll to the pros. His arm is avg and some of those ducks he throws up when he's in trouble will be sure INT's.
Yeah you can't get away with throws like the below in the NFL.

Rkp98YS.gif


 
I dont want Manziel to Texans but thought this was funny --

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Stanford coach David Shaw on Johnny Manziel: "He's a jackrabbit. Can't catch a jackrabbit. That's an unteachable skill."</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="

https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/statuses/423574055040471040">January 15, 2014</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 
Here is a well-written article about VT QB Logan Thomas. Perhaps the toughest QB to project this year.

If you are a draftnik, you should enjoy.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/bruce-feldman/24414995/logan-thomas-hits-the-classroom-to-ready-for-senior-bowl-week

Logan Thomas, decked out in an Athletes First sweatsuit and hat, sits in a makeshift QB room with whiteboards on all the walls surrounding him. The 6-foot-6, 250-pound Thomas is so enormous, he makes the room feel cramped. A pair of his size-17 shoes sitting besides his chair look like they weigh 20 pounds. Thomas dwarfs the quarterback seated to his left, Brock Jensen, a guy who was listed at 6-3, 225 by North Dakota State.
* * *

Thomas' first season as the starter was strong. He threw for over 3,000 yards, ran for 469 more while totaling 30 TDs and completing 60 percent of his passes, leading the Hokies to the Sugar Bowl. Some NFL Draft analysts talked about him potentially becoming the first pick. Not bad for a guy who came to Blacksburg as the top-ranked tight end prospect in the 2009 recruiting class or, as O'Cain put it, wasn't one of these guys "who has been to 37 QB camps" since the time when he could barely walk.

The big QB's stock seemingly plummeted in 2012, when, not so coincidentally, so did the level of talent around him on Tech's offense. Gone were game-breaking RB David Wilson as well as go-to receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale, all off to the NFL. Thomas went from being a 60 percent passer to a 51 percent completion mark. His 19-10 TD-INT ratio fell to 18-16. Worse still, all of that hype about draft gurus pumping him up left many ripping the Hokies QB. It almost was a given that anytime Tech played on a national TV stage, Logan Thomas would end up trending on Twitter, and not because he was carving up a rival defense or his team was piling up points.

* * *

"Once you get past Johnny, Teddy [bridgewater] and [blake] Bortles, who is 4-5-6 [among the QBs in the 2014 NFL Draft]? If Logan is really cleaned up, it can be him. You're talking about bringing in a guy who is 6-6, huge arm, really smart, good athlete. EJ [Manuel] went No. 1 last year. Nobody had EJ higher than Matt Barkley at this point, but look what happened in the draft."






 
I am a Blake Bortles QB advocate and, believe it or not, an A.J. McCarron after him. I think both players project better as an NFL prototype QB - particularly for the Texans.. Manziel will put fannies in the seats until his off the field antics finally crater him.

All this being said, I think the Texans drafting first is academic anyway - I'm betting they trade down

 
I don't know if I believe there is a such thing as a "prototype" QB anymore...I'm no advocate of Johnny, but I would not be surprised if he goes early and has success. He is really lose in the pocket and will probably be blasted a few times..if he can withstand the physical toll then he should be okay. I am not going to be down on him just because he is an aggy. I love football and can appreciate the talent that he has. Many of us love Peterson...I will say that he does just throw up passes and that will not work in the NFL...but if Texan fans were excited about Case Keenum...lol, you can't be upset with Johnny Manziel.

 
Kiper has Insider subscriptions to sell and page hits to recruit. Putting Manziel #1 is an opportunity to create controversy and sell subscriptions.

 
I don't know if I believe there is a such thing as a "prototype" QB anymore...I'm no advocate of Johnny, but I would not be surprised if he goes early and has success. He is really lose in the pocket and will probably be blasted a few times..if he can withstand the physical toll then he should be okay. I am not going to be down on him just because he is an aggy. I love football and can appreciate the talent that he has. Many of us love Peterson...I will say that he does just throw up passes and that will not work in the NFL...but if Texan fans were excited about Case Keenum...lol, you can't be upset with Johnny Manziel.
LOL! I think Texans fans were excited about Keenum because it put Shaub on the bench and because Case was a hometown boy.

 
On Jan 16, 2013, Mel Kiper's mock draft had Damontre Moore at No. 2. Moore ended up going 81st
That's before the combine and workouts. He ended up not being on there at all after the combine.

 
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