This was forwarded to me from a friend( a yankee) who bets a lot and this tout, Dr. Bob( some name ) sent this out- thought is was a interesting read.
"I have one season win Best Bet, and a corresponding futures play to win the conference. I will look at more season win plays tonight and will send out an email tomorrow at 1 pm Pacific.
**Texas OVER 7.5 wins (+110)
*Texas to win Big 12 at +450
Texas underperformed in recent year for former coach Mack Brown but new coach Charlie Strong has set the tone by dismissing 6 players and suspending a few others. Strong won’t put up with any bullshit and those players that don’t work hard won’t play. I suspect Strong will get the most of an extremely talented team loaded with top recruits and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas make a run at the Big 12 title this season. The Longhorns have an established quarterback in David Ash, who had a great season in 2012 (8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and was on his way to another very good season in 2013 (8.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) before getting injured. Ash’s receiving corps appears to be slightly less talented this season but I don’t expect his numbers to slip much in what should be a good offensive scheme for him. Offensive coordinator Joe Wickline learned the very good offensive system employed at Oklahoma State while on the Cowboys’ staff the previous 9 seasons under head coach Mike Gundy and that could translate into big numbers – although I’ll assume that Ash will be a bit worse than the previous two seasons. The rushing attack has really underperformed at Texas the last 6 years and I peg that Longhorns’ ground assault as average heading into this season with potential to be much better given the talent of both Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray, who were both rated as the #1 running back recruits in the nation coming out of high school. The offensive line is less experienced than it was last season but, like all other positions, there is plenty of talent on hand. Texas was average on a national scale offensively last season without Ash at the helm, but the Longhorns were 1.2 yards per play better than average with Ash at quarterback in 2012 and this year’s attack could be even better if the running backs start producing like they’ve been expected to. For now I rate the Texas offense at 1.0 yppl better than average and there is a higher chance of being better than that rating than being worse than expected.
The Texas defense inexplicably has had trouble defending the run the last two seasons (0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average in 2012 and only 0.1 yprp better than average last season) but I once again put the blame on the former coaching staff, who didn’t take full advantage of the athleticism on the roster. Charlie Strong is a former defensive coordinator that turned Louisville into a very good defensive team with pretty mediocre talent and this Texas team is littered with 5-Star and 4-Star recruits. DC Vance Bedford held the same position under Strong at Louisville the past 4 seasons and improved the Cardinals’ defense by 0.7 yards per play in his first season. Last season’s Louisville defense was 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for schedule strength and I forecast immediate improvement for the Texas stop unit. The Texas defense was actually very good last year after firing DC Manny Diaz early in the season. In fact, over the final 10 games last season the Longhorns’ defense was 0.9 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit projects to be at least as good this season with plenty of experience (8 returning starters), a plethora of talent, and better coaching. Louisville improved from 8 points worse than average in 2009 to 5 points better than average in Charlie Strong’s first season as head coach there in 2010. I don’t have Texas improving quite that much, although they could if the rushing attack performs up to their talent level, but this should be the best Texas team since 2009.
Texas heads into this season as an underrated team and I project a 60% chance to win 8 games or more. I favor the Longhorns by 18 points or more in 3 games (North Texas, at Kansas, and Iowa State) and favor them by around 10 points in home games against West Virginia and TCU. They are about 50% likely to win all 5 of those games and they can still get to 8 wins even if they lose one of those by going 4-3 in their toss-up games. Those key games will be BYU at home, UCLA in Arlington, Baylor at home, Oklahoma at Dallas, and road games at Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. My ratings don’t have Texas as more than a 2 ½ point dog to any team on their schedule and I project 3.8 wins and 3.2 losses in those 7 tough games, so there would still be a decent chance of getting to 8 wins even if they lose to one of the 5 teams that they’ll be decisive favorites against. I was also conservative in my ratings in some areas, particularly the rushing attack. If Texas runs the ball at a level befitting their immense talent at running back (and on the offensive line) then the Longhorns should win 9 or more games. I’ll play Texas OVER 7 ½ wins (+110) at odds of -115 or better. Some books have Texas listed at Over 8 at +170, which is the same thing and you can play Over 8 at +150 or better. I am also playing 1-Star on Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 (play at +400 or more). "
"I have one season win Best Bet, and a corresponding futures play to win the conference. I will look at more season win plays tonight and will send out an email tomorrow at 1 pm Pacific.
**Texas OVER 7.5 wins (+110)
*Texas to win Big 12 at +450
Texas underperformed in recent year for former coach Mack Brown but new coach Charlie Strong has set the tone by dismissing 6 players and suspending a few others. Strong won’t put up with any bullshit and those players that don’t work hard won’t play. I suspect Strong will get the most of an extremely talented team loaded with top recruits and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas make a run at the Big 12 title this season. The Longhorns have an established quarterback in David Ash, who had a great season in 2012 (8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and was on his way to another very good season in 2013 (8.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) before getting injured. Ash’s receiving corps appears to be slightly less talented this season but I don’t expect his numbers to slip much in what should be a good offensive scheme for him. Offensive coordinator Joe Wickline learned the very good offensive system employed at Oklahoma State while on the Cowboys’ staff the previous 9 seasons under head coach Mike Gundy and that could translate into big numbers – although I’ll assume that Ash will be a bit worse than the previous two seasons. The rushing attack has really underperformed at Texas the last 6 years and I peg that Longhorns’ ground assault as average heading into this season with potential to be much better given the talent of both Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray, who were both rated as the #1 running back recruits in the nation coming out of high school. The offensive line is less experienced than it was last season but, like all other positions, there is plenty of talent on hand. Texas was average on a national scale offensively last season without Ash at the helm, but the Longhorns were 1.2 yards per play better than average with Ash at quarterback in 2012 and this year’s attack could be even better if the running backs start producing like they’ve been expected to. For now I rate the Texas offense at 1.0 yppl better than average and there is a higher chance of being better than that rating than being worse than expected.
The Texas defense inexplicably has had trouble defending the run the last two seasons (0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average in 2012 and only 0.1 yprp better than average last season) but I once again put the blame on the former coaching staff, who didn’t take full advantage of the athleticism on the roster. Charlie Strong is a former defensive coordinator that turned Louisville into a very good defensive team with pretty mediocre talent and this Texas team is littered with 5-Star and 4-Star recruits. DC Vance Bedford held the same position under Strong at Louisville the past 4 seasons and improved the Cardinals’ defense by 0.7 yards per play in his first season. Last season’s Louisville defense was 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for schedule strength and I forecast immediate improvement for the Texas stop unit. The Texas defense was actually very good last year after firing DC Manny Diaz early in the season. In fact, over the final 10 games last season the Longhorns’ defense was 0.9 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit projects to be at least as good this season with plenty of experience (8 returning starters), a plethora of talent, and better coaching. Louisville improved from 8 points worse than average in 2009 to 5 points better than average in Charlie Strong’s first season as head coach there in 2010. I don’t have Texas improving quite that much, although they could if the rushing attack performs up to their talent level, but this should be the best Texas team since 2009.
Texas heads into this season as an underrated team and I project a 60% chance to win 8 games or more. I favor the Longhorns by 18 points or more in 3 games (North Texas, at Kansas, and Iowa State) and favor them by around 10 points in home games against West Virginia and TCU. They are about 50% likely to win all 5 of those games and they can still get to 8 wins even if they lose one of those by going 4-3 in their toss-up games. Those key games will be BYU at home, UCLA in Arlington, Baylor at home, Oklahoma at Dallas, and road games at Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. My ratings don’t have Texas as more than a 2 ½ point dog to any team on their schedule and I project 3.8 wins and 3.2 losses in those 7 tough games, so there would still be a decent chance of getting to 8 wins even if they lose to one of the 5 teams that they’ll be decisive favorites against. I was also conservative in my ratings in some areas, particularly the rushing attack. If Texas runs the ball at a level befitting their immense talent at running back (and on the offensive line) then the Longhorns should win 9 or more games. I’ll play Texas OVER 7 ½ wins (+110) at odds of -115 or better. Some books have Texas listed at Over 8 at +170, which is the same thing and you can play Over 8 at +150 or better. I am also playing 1-Star on Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 (play at +400 or more). "
