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by Will Baizer, HornSports Contributor
The Texas Longhorns (1-4) desperately need a win and look to spoil the Oklahoma Sooners' (4-0) undefeated season in the Red River Shootout.
Texas vs Oklahoma Game Preview
Date: Saturday, October 10
Game Time: 11:00 CST
Network: ABC
Why You Should Care
THIS IS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA! Fried food + hate + magic + burnt orange + crimson and cream = anything can happen. This equation has been proven many times before. Charlie Strong needs a win badly and Bob Stoops needs a win to get the Oklahoma boosters off his back while he leads them from one great season to another great season. Basically the winner of this game wins the prize of temporarily quieting boosters and overreacting fans while donning a nice golden hat. The fans, they get bragging rights for a year. The loser, well...
There is a lot on the line in this game, regardless of which side you favor.
If you are a Texas fan thinking the Longhorns are overmatched and will lose (like many did in 2013), I'll tell you that this team is better than their record suggests. To clarify, they're not good. But they're not 1-4 bad. This game is a wild card in every sense of the word, and it's a tradition not worth missing.. That's why you need to care.
Why Longhorns Will Win
When Texas is unranked and Oklahoma is ranked in the Red River Shootout, the Longhorns are 5-2. Following historical trends tells us the Longhorns have a decent shot at a win at the Cotton Bowl.
If you look at this game under a different lens, Texas has a huge wild card in playcaller Jay Norvell. Norvell knows the Sooners' personnel and how they'll be preparing to attack the Texas offense and defensive units. The Longhorns will use Norvell's seven-year history as a Sooner assistant coach to game plan for the crimson and creme.
On top of this, the Sooners' defense is vulnerable. They have hired new defensive backs and defensive line coaches. They still gave up 600+ yards to Tulsa. Texas needs needs the offense they employed against Cal and the first half of Oklahoma State to show up on Saturday because this game could very easily turn into a shootout. How do they do this? First the offensive staff realizes that Jonathan Gray is simply not the featured tailback on this football team. They need to continuously feed it to D'Onta Foreman and run zone read options all day, something Oklahoma has struggled with against running quarterbacks. It cannot be underscored enough that the Texas wide receivers need to limit dropped passes. On 16 total throws of 20+ yards Jerrod Heard has completed eight of those for a total of 341 yards and 2 touchdowns (one incompletion came from a negation due to OPI and another was called a DPI - these would have gone for 167 yards and 2 TDs). Five of these throws hit Armanti Foreman in the hands. Three were deserved incompletions: one to Beck vs OSU, one intended for Marcus Johnson that hit a TCU defender in the back and another one to Armanti Foreman in double coverage. If Texas can convert on even just a few of these deep balls it opens up the ball game for Heard tremendously.
With that said, it is imperative for the Longhorns to shore up the defensive performances. It's unlikely Vance Bedford's unit will show massive improvement from what we've seen over the first five games, but it is nice to finally have Duke Thomas on the outside and not at Nickel. If the defense finds an answer to Baker Mayfield's passing game then Texas has a chance. Mayfield has proven to be a skilled passer and a valuable commodity for Bob Stoops, and the Longhorns will have their hands full trying to slow him down. Texas needs to win the turnover battle and score points on defense to supplement Heard and the offense. It helped tremendously against Oklahoma State, a game in which the defense still gave up nearly 400 yards of offense.
Finally, special teams will have to stop being so special. They have been a huge burden over the past three weeks in just about every facet of the game. If Texas can find some sort of consistency on Saturday they can hopefully avoid an early deficit that they can't recover from.
Why Sooners Will Win
Oklahoma's balanced offense exploits the Texas defense and the Sooner defense takes advantage of a struggling Texas offensive line, forcing Jerrod Heard to run most of the game.
Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma's offensive coordinator, is basically a magician. Riley was handed the keys to the offense from Stoops and decided to build around a Texas Tech walk-on (Mayfield). Riley also dropped the only two returning starters on the offensive line in favor of underclassmen. These strategies have paid for Oklahoma, with the Mayfield promotion paying significant dividends. Baker Mayfield is a master of improvising and is surrounded by wide receiver threats like Sterling Shepard and Dede Westbrook.
Oklahoma's running back duo of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon have largely under-performed this season. The Texas run defense has had its share of problems through five games and the Sooners will be looking to finally get their running backs the production they promised all summer. Oklahoma has a balanced attack on offense and Texas has not proven they are able to stop that this season.
Texas has issues on the offensive line. Kent Perkins has been injured will likely not play against Oklahoma. In Perkins absence the line, which was already experiencing issues, played worse. Center Taylor Doyle and guard Sedrick Flowers were overmatched vs TCU. The Longhorns will also likely be without the speedy Daje Johnson, which means there will be no way to distract Eric Striker from Jerrod Heard. Oklahoma's defense gels on their ability to make the young Heard keep his eyes on them as opposed to downfield. The Texas offense is again unable to make anything happen.
Players Who Matter
Oklahoma
WR Sterling Shepard and RB Semaje Perine
Mayfield has done a very good job with check downs and finding ways to make plays happen this year. But like every great game managing quarterback, you have to have a go-to guy. Manziel had Evans, McCoy had Shipley, and Brady has Gronk. Sterling Shepard is that guy for Mayfield. Shepard has been able to spread his wings this year and he's gotten help from other wide receivers with the ability to make plays. Shepard will be left in single coverage at times and if he is able to exploit the struggling Texas secondary, the Sooners will score points quick.
While Baker Mayfield and the passing game have exceeded expectations under Riley, Samaje Perine has not had the year he hoped for. That may change as he faces the 108th ranked rushing defense in the Longhorns. With Mixon getting some of the reps and Texas' defensive line allowing broken tackle after broken tackle Perine looks to finally break into the second and third levels where he is most dangerous.
Zack Sanchez and Eric Striker
The key to Oklahoma's defense will be stopping Jerrod Heard. If they do that Longhorns will not get anything going on offense. All-Big 12 and only returning starter on defense, Zack Sanchez, has to make sure Heard is not able to make any huge passes downfield, or else Heard will have opportunities to beat the Sooners with his feet.
Eric Striker is a guy who you have to account for on every play. Last week he had 13 tackles, 3 for losses, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. And he is going up against the Longhorns' best offensive lineman in freshman Connor Williams. He will be tasked with watching Heard and making sure Heard doesn't make things happen with his feet. If Striker successfully stops Heard then the Longhorns are in a lot of trouble.
Texas
Armanti Foreman/John Burt and Doyle/Nickelson
Armanti Foreman and John Burt are Heard's best and favorite targets, especially with Daje out. These guys have to be able to make the plays they are capable of making. They have to be steady targets that Heard can rely on while they take a break feeding the ball (hopefully) to D'Onta Foreman on zone reads options.
If Doyle does this against OU, it's doubtful Heard makes it through a complete game on Saturday. This type of stuff is unfortunately why Doyle matters. If Raulerson isn't going to be replacing him (which is looks like to be the case) then this senior needs to really become a stable force on the line. If he is able to become even a moderate player, then Texas' chances double.
We know that Connor Williams can match up against the likes of Emmanuel Ogbah (which is incredible by the way) which means he should be able to hold his own against Eric Striker and Charles Tapper. As for Nickelson he will need to step his game up to block these two guys. Nickelson's play matters because Texas could very well ride or die on his back from an offensive perspective.
Hassan Ridgeway and Duke Thomas
Hassan Ridgeway needs to mimic his performance in the Oklahoma State game, plain and simple. Texas can't afford to miss sacks and Ridgeway must be a force in this game. Mayfield must be contained and the big run potential of Perine and Mixon needs to be taken away.
A week after facing arguably the best wide receiver in the country, Duke Thomas will be up against another great one in Sterling Shepard. Luckily for Thomas, Shepard is no Josh Doctson. Thomas' play will factor significantly into the ability of the Longhorns to stop Oklahoma's passing game by locking off their favorite target.
Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction - What's Going to Happen?
Let me start this series off by saying I hate predictions. Just look at what happened in 2013 or 2009 when Sam Bradford went down. You can't predict anything in life except death and taxes.
However, since I am obliged to make a prediction, I'll preface it by saying I believe Texas is devoid of the necessary talent to match up effectively against the Sooners. With an unstable offensive line and a young and inexperienced secondary, the Longhorns will have trouble with Baker Mayfield. The Texas special teams will find a new way to fail spectacularly and the Oklahoma offense will undoubtedly take advantage of it.
Final Score: Oklahoma - 45, Texas - 21
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