I'm not sure if Heard saw the linebacker, but it's a good thing he didn't throw this ball ... except he fumbled it.
Cal has the Inside Zone outnumbered, so I think Heard is thinking he'll take the easy yards afforded by the very soft coverage on Daje. I put a red box around the linebacker — look where he is in the cable cam view when Heard pumps the ball the second time.
I wish they'd have these backs actually run a route after they don't get the handoff. It wouldn't have mattered here because of the pressure. I'm very entertained watching the feet of the linemen. The least active ones are always Doyle and Flowers.
I think there are a few points to consider that add to your outstanding commentary.
1) You have a corner playing 8 yds off the X receiver with no scuff player underneath. A quick slant or even a 5yd hitch is really the call here. Cal is unsound with this current structure.
2) Heard's read is the mike backer on the RPO. The Center and the play side guard allow leakage which force heard to attempt to throw off balance. As you mention when you count the numbers, Cal has the advantage. We have 5 to block 6. So, reading the Mike and throwing off him is correct. (watching the play, had he handed it, we would have gashed them) however, that seems because of improper alignment from Cal, which SHOULD go against the norm.) In other words, 9 out of 10 times, MIKE should make that tackle. This leads to my point, the MIKE initially steps up..That being said, as soon as the MIKE steps up, ball should be out, thus the Center and play side guard losing leverage, should never have come into play.
3) If heard just gets rid of the ball on time, none of this should ever happened. And that will be the coaching point all week to him from his Coach."Get the ball out".
4) Lastly, you mention the RB's running routes when they don't get the hand off. In an RPO, the back does not know if it is a pull or a give.(Even when the RB's KNOW the numbers are on their side, SOMETIMES the QB screws up and misreads it!!! I see it everyday) uhhgggg. That being said, the OL is supposed to be run blocking as to set the defense up to think run, so the LB's step up, which allows for a throw behind them based on them being out of alignment. The RB's HAVE to run through as if they have the ball when it is pulled, as to keep the LBers having to step up and respect the run. That is why we don't coach them to run routes. If anything, we want them to carry out the run as if they have it...That makes this hell to defend!!
Thanks again for your analysis!!! Great stuff.