Probably right but what if he completely loses the team? like Strong did and loses to Kansas? I don't know if they will lose to Kansas but this team is not playing to their talent at all and so nothing can be discounted. Iowa st, Kansas st, OSU and OU all look considerably stronger than UT...if they lose those 4, they will be 5-5 on the season. I don't see Bijan Robinson staying after this year, or Jake Smith. Herman already cant develop talent that is considerably better than the rest of the big XII, i cant imagine how much worse it would get if his classes dip below top 25.
I honestly don't know if Herman could win the big XII with a team full of all pros from the NFL.