10 wins is my expectation for Coach Strong and here is why...

[Randolph Duke]

I have been wondering for a while just how to measure the Charlie Strong era at UT. I crunched some numbers and thought I would share what I came up with.

In my mind, the three most outstanding head football coaches at the University of Texas have been D.X. Bible, Darrell Royal and Mack Brown. In fact, I consider the hiring of Coach Bible as the beginning of the era of excellence of UT football. We started playing football in 1893, but it wasn’t until Coach Bible’s 1941 team that the Longhorns were ever ranked number one in the national polls.

By 1941, TCU had two national championships (1935 and 1938) and a Heisman Trophy winner (Davey O’Brien in 1938). Even aggy had already managed its one and only number one finish in the national polls. (Yea, I know about aggy’s two other supposed national championships. Texas has 11 of the same type of “championships†that, since they aren’t by major polls, we don’t claim.) In 1941, we were not the premier program in Texas. At the end of the 1941 season, Texas had a record of 286-113-21 (.681 overall winning average). Aggy’s overall record was 259-109-29 (.652). The overall success of the UT and aggy programs was roughly the same. Aggy had a national championship and was ranked number one more often than Texas, we had more wins and a slightly better overall record.

Coach Bible went 63-31-3 (.665). When Coach Royal took over in 1957, our overall record was 390-160-30 (.672). At that time, aggy’s overall record was 328-182-36 (.601). Through the ‘40s and ‘50s, Texas did well and aggy began to slip. Interestingly, when Coach Royal took over the program, all hell broke loose. Coach Royal went 167-47-5 (.762) while at Texas and never had a losing season, winning national championships in ’63, ’69 and ’70. What I didn’t realize until now was that while Texas soared starting in 1957, aggy totally crapped the bad. In 1957, aggy began a period where they had a streak of 10 straight losing seasons and losing seasons in 16 of their next 17 seasons. From ’57-‘73, aggy went 57-109-7 (.329) while Texas went 144-36-4 (.782). We have all heard they aggys claim the “since year x, out programs have roughly the same record.†We have also heard their claim they have such a crappy overall record because they were "just a small all-male school. Bullsh!t. I had an aggy tell me once “In the modern era, since 1973…†I wondered how in the hell the “modern era†began in 1973. Now I know why they find the need to start their smack talking with "since 1973...." I also understand why the old guard aggys hate Texas so vehemently. It's not so much what Texas has accomplished as much as that they have lived through such an amazing period of futility for their program.

Right now, Texas’ overall record is 874-339-33 (.715). We trail only Michigan (910) for overall wins (we are tied for 2nd at 874 with Notre Dame). Aggy’s record is 701-456-48 (.602 which is right where it was in 1957.) Coach Brown went 158-48 (.767). In my mind, for Coach Strong to be successful, he will have to at least match Coach Bible’s .665 winning average which means 8-4 is pretty much the floor for a Charlie Strong season, below which I feel entitled to start complaining. To get to the level of Coach Royal or Coach Brown, He is going to have to go 9-3 during the regular season and win the bowl game more often or not, so 10 wins is a reasonable expectation for me to consider Coach Strong “Texas Good.†For the record, since taking over the aggy program, Kevin Sumlin has gone 20-6 (.769). In other words over the past two years, “the greatest period ever in the history of aggydomâ€, they have won at the same average Mack Brown did for over a decade and a half.

So, as of now, 10-3, beat OU, don’t lose any game in an ugly fashion, ride herd on the athletes to keep them out of trouble and get our APR up and Coach Strong gets my vote to get to keep his job.

 

[Topstarr]

11 wins plus bowl win

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

I believe a 9-3 season will be a good start for Coach Strong.

UCLA @ Jerry World will be a very tough game. That's a Top 10 squad next year. Two losses in the Big 12 won't be a big surprise either for a "reloading" team.

 

[TheContractor]

I think 10-2 + decent bowl game is realistic with a healthy Ash or decent transfer QB.

No worse than 9-3. Ucla, Ou, Baylor & Ok St tough ones.

 

[pringlelake]

I believe a 9-3 season will be a good start for Coach Strong.
UCLA @ Jerry World will be a very tough game. That's a Top 10 squad next year. Two losses in the Big 12 won't be a big surprise either for a "reloading" team.

I most certainly agree regarding UCLA, but assuming we have a healthy David Ash at QB, I'm not sure next year would truly be considered re-loading. We have Ash at QB plus Heard coming in, plus Gray, Brown and Bergeron. Cedric Reed and Big Brown on defense plus Jordan Hicks. Actually I think there's a good reason Mack Brown wanted another year, i.e., he thinks next year's talent is better than this year's. If Ash is ready to go, I think he's right.

 

[DocHorn]

I think it will take a couple of years to get the program going to the level you desire. After 2 yrs I expect to

1 beat ouSuxx more than 50% of the time

2 average winning 10 games a yr

3 win the conference every 2 or 3 yrs

4 make it into the playoffs every 4 yrs or so

Run a clean program with tough hard nosed athletes that stay out of trouble

Play hard every week, when we lose, we lose because we got beat, not because we are out coached or give poor effort

 

[buice77]

I most certainly agree regarding UCLA, but assuming we have a healthy David Ash at QB, I'm not sure next year would truly be considered re-loading. We have Ash at QB plus Heard coming in, plus Gray, Brown and Bergeron. Cedric Reed and Big Brown on defense plus Jordan Hicks. Actually I think there's a good reason Mack Brown wanted another year, i.e., he thinks next year's talent is better than this year's. If Ash is ready to go, I think he's right.

I agree with pringlelake reload don't think so there's talent all over this team. Senior class was rank #3 and junior class #2 so I don't think there's any reloading right now to much talent. If Ash is healthy or we can find a QB we are in good shape. Remember we went down to last game with a chance to win the big 12 with Case as the QB. We have a lot of key players returning so I think we can have a great year.

 

[doc longhorn]

To get to the level of Coach Royal

I love your reasoning and I certainly hope it comes true. However, the greatest coach in Longhorn history (Darrell Royal) actually started his career, in 1957, with a 6-4-1 record. And even in 1958, he was only 7-3

To be fair, Royal inherited a team that had just gone 1-9 under Ed Price and the cupboard was pretty bare.

However, Coach Strong has a top notch core of players to start his regime. Even with sub-par coaching, last years team would have had a better record had they had even a semblance of a QB - the most critical position on the team. Honestly, I have never seen a Texas team with such gross mis-management, recruiting and preparation of such an important position. The whole conference must have been jumping with glee. But I digress - so I think it is reasonable to expect Strong to surpass Royals modest beginnings.

 

[Randolph Duke]

I love your reasoning and I certainly hope it comes true. However, the greatest coach in Longhorn history (Darrell Royal) actually started his career, in 1957, with a 6-4-1 record. And even in 1958, he was only 7-3To be fair, Royal inherited a team that had just gone 1-9 under Ed Price and the cupboard was pretty bare.

However, Coach Strong has a top notch core of players to start his regime. Even with sub-par coaching, last years team would have had a better record had they had even a semblance of a QB - the most critical position on the team. Honestly, I have never seen a Texas team with such gross mis-management, recruiting and preparation of such an important position. The whole conference must have been jumping with glee. But I digress - so I think it is reasonable to expect Strong to surpass Royals modest beginnings.

One of the things about Coach Royal that I find amazing is that he coached (and won) in the '50s, '60s and '70s. Think about how college kids, society and the University of Texas changed during that time. The kids he was coaching in the '50s were far different than the ones he coached in the '70s. People knock on him for having the last non-integrated national championship team and for not integrating the team earlier. Most of those people don't know he started integrating the team in 1968, just two years after the first integrated team in the conference (SMU). The changes Coach Royal dealt with were amazing and he seemed to handle them well and the program prospered during that time. As I said during my original post, aggy sure didn't handle that era well.

 

[couchman]

Do you guys even look at the schedule when you make these predictions? Our schedule next year is tough. We would have to be a better team than we were in 2013 just to repeat the 8-5 record. 9 wins would be a very nice start to the Strong era.

BTW, I agree with the OP that 10 wins is a minimum standard of success here, but I am going to give Strong a few years to get his program going before that standard makes sense.

 

[Tulsahorn]

Do you guys even look at the schedule when you make these predictions? Our schedule next year is tough. We would have to be a better team than we were in 2013 just to repeat the 8-5 record. 9 wins would be a very nice start to the Strong era.
BTW, I agree with the OP that 10 wins is a minimum standard of success here, but I am going to give Strong a few years to get his program going before that standard makes sense.

This

OP - You feel "entitled" to start to bitch if in the first year Strong doesn't match some career numbers of guys who coached 50 years ago?

Make it stop, please.

 

[JimsTexas]

CS will bring new energy to the Texas football team. The coaching staff will be one that the kids will give there all. The problem is these kids will have to learn CS football it will be tough hard nose football. Something our players have not been subject to for sometime. My friends y'all have a great weekend.

 

[SFlonghorngirl]

9-3 = meets my expectations

10-2 = exceeds my expectations

11-1 or 12-0 = PLAYOFFS!!!

 

[Randolph Duke]

This
OP - You feel "entitled" to start to bitch if in the first year Strong doesn't match some career numbers of guys who coached 50 years ago?

Make it stop, please.

Yea, I'm one of those idiots who still think the example set by some guy 50 years ago has some relevance. If you think that is bad, I'm so screwed up I also follow what some silly jew did 2,000 years ago. Stupid, isn't it?

I feel I am entitled to complain if he doesn't manage to lead the team to a record that meets the standard that has been in place for 75 years. to me, he isn't "Texas Good" unless he can carve out a legacy that puts him in the company of Mack, Coach Royal and Coach Bible. Feel free to set your own expectations for the team.

 

[coolhorn]

I have been wondering for a while just how to measure the Charlie Strong era at UT. I crunched some numbers and thought I would share what I came up with.
In my mind, the three most outstanding head football coaches at the University of Texas have been D.X. Bible, Darrell Royal and Mack Brown. In fact, I consider the hiring of Coach Bible as the beginning of the era of excellence of UT football. We started playing football in 1893, but it wasn’t until Coach Bible’s 1941 team that the Longhorns were ever ranked number one in the national polls.

By 1941, TCU had two national championships (1935 and 1938) and a Heisman Trophy winner (Davey O’Brien in 1938). Even aggy had already managed its one and only number one finish in the national polls. (Yea, I know about aggy’s two other supposed national championships. Texas has 11 of the same type of “championships” that, since they aren’t by major polls, we don’t claim.) In 1941, we were not the premier program in Texas. At the end of the 1941 season, Texas had a record of 286-113-21 (.681 overall winning average). Aggy’s overall record was 259-109-29 (.652). The overall success of the UT and aggy programs was roughly the same. Aggy had a national championship and was ranked number one more often than Texas, we had more wins and a slightly better overall record.

Coach Bible went 63-31-3 (.665). When Coach Royal took over in 1957, our overall record was 390-160-30 (.672). At that time, aggy’s overall record was 328-182-36 (.601). Through the ‘40s and ‘50s, Texas did well and aggy began to slip. Interestingly, when Coach Royal took over the program, all hell broke loose. Coach Royal went 167-47-5 (.762) while at Texas and never had a losing season, winning national championships in ’63, ’69 and ’70. What I didn’t realize until now was that while Texas soared starting in 1957, aggy totally crapped the bad. In 1957, aggy began a period where they had a streak of 10 straight losing seasons and losing seasons in 16 of their next 17 seasons. From ’57-‘73, aggy went 57-109-7 (.329) while Texas went 144-36-4 (.782). We have all heard they aggys claim the “since year x, out programs have roughly the same record.” We have also heard their claim they have such a crappy overall record because they were "just a small all-male school. Bullsh!t. I had an aggy tell me once “In the modern era, since 1973…” I wondered how in the hell the “modern era” began in 1973. Now I know why they find the need to start their smack talking with "since 1973...." I also understand why the old guard aggys hate Texas so vehemently. It's not so much what Texas has accomplished as much as that they have lived through such an amazing period of futility for their program.

Right now, Texas’ overall record is 874-339-33 (.715). We trail only Michigan (910) for overall wins (we are tied for 2nd at 874 with Notre Dame). Aggy’s record is 701-456-48 (.602 which is right where it was in 1957.) Coach Brown went 158-48 (.767). In my mind, for Coach Strong to be successful, he will have to at least match Coach Bible’s .665 winning average which means 8-4 is pretty much the floor for a Charlie Strong season, below which I feel entitled to start complaining. To get to the level of Coach Royal or Coach Brown, He is going to have to go 9-3 during the regular season and win the bowl game more often or not, so 10 wins is a reasonable expectation for me to consider Coach Strong “Texas Good.” For the record, since taking over the aggy program, Kevin Sumlin has gone 20-6 (.769). In other words over the past two years, “the greatest period ever in the history of aggydom”, they have won at the same average Mack Brown did for over a decade and a half.

So, as of now, 10-3, beat OU, don’t lose any game in an ugly fashion, ride herd on the athletes to keep them out of trouble and get our APR up and Coach Strong gets my vote to get to keep his job.

I tend to tap the brakes on expectations this coming season a bit. It's a learning curve for Coach Strong, his staff, and the players. If the team gets even decent quarterback production, it will be pretty good. That being said, I'd be just fine with eight or nine wins, no intimidation at the hands of zero-u, and no blow-out losses. I'll set my sights higher in year two, but this coming season, I'll be plenty satisfied with a tough-minded team that's in every game, wins the ones it should, and upsets one or two teams it's not expected to. If UT plays solid defense, can run the ball well, plays good special teams, and cuts down on crucial mistakes, that will be plenty of improvement for Strong's first season on the job.

 

[monarch]

...ante omnia armari before all else be armed...

much obliged as per the overwhelming faith ladies / gents. however, haven't we've learned enough, regarding putting the horse before the cart? let us please allow for our new coaching staff to build their future champions as they see fit. allow them to instill integrity, the right attitude regarding their overall strength training and regimens... these very initial stages, are badly needed upon the 40 acres. allow for them to further instill, what being a "student first" at texas is really all about. allow for our new coaches to arm each and every player, with the mindset of a true champion, as well as balancing this with humility. once these initial stages have been firmly established.... TAKE NO PRISONERS!

 

[CCausey11]

Yea, I'm one of those idiots who still think the example set by some guy 50 years ago has some relevance. If you think that is bad, I'm so screwed up I also follow what some silly jew did 2,000 years ago. Stupid, isn't it?
I feel I am entitled to complain if he doesn't manage to lead the team to a record that meets the standard that has been in place for 75 years. to me, he isn't "Texas Good" unless he can carve out a legacy that puts him in the company of Mack, Coach Royal and Coach Bible. Feel free to set your own expectations for the team.

So Coach Strong gets one year to compare to legacy coaches?? Fail to follow your logic here. And please, let's not compare Jesus to coaches ok

 

[JMagana]

I say he gets 9-10 this year. But do believe a Natl Championship is in the works. God works in mysterious ways my friends ;-)

 

[pianoboe]

So, what IF Ash's injury comes back to bite him next year? He gets his bell rung against UCLA and he's once again week to week like 2013. What's reasonable? 7-5? How much is a healthy Ash worth to this team? I think it's pretty reasonable to expect those symptoms to reoccur. If you ask me, it would be a failure of this coaching staff not to get a JC or transfer QB for 2014.