Let's talk Playoffs and the poll

[Matt Cotcher]

1

 Alabama 9-1

2

 Oregon 9-1

3

 Florida State 10-0

4

 Mississippi State 9-1

5

 TCU 9-1

6

 Ohio State 9-1

7

 Baylor 8-1

Observations:

1. If I coached a team in the top 4, I'd tell my team that if they win out, they control their own destiny.

2. Baylor really needs Texas to beat TCU, and for Ohio State to lose their conference championship game (see #1).

3. Despite #1, it's not that far fetched to think that both TCU and Baylor could make it in still.

4. Depending on CCG opponents, it's possible that 4/6 teams ranked ahead of Baylor could play a team currently rated higher than KSU (minimizing any bump the Bears would get for beating the Wildcats).

5. I don't have a problem with Mississippi State at 4 for now. Their resume is at least as good as 5-7, IMO.

 

[Aaron Carrara]

TCU has Texas and Iowa State left on the schedule.  Baylor has Texas Tech and K-State.  ISU is 2-7 and TTU is 3-7 on the season.

A Baylor win over Kansas State would look better than a TCU win over Texas to the committee, so I think the Bears have a real opportunity.

 

[joeywa]

TCU has Texas and Iowa State left on the schedule.  Baylor has Texas Tech and K-State.  ISU is 2-7 and TTU is 3-7 on the season.

A Baylor win over Kansas State would look better than a TCU win over Texas to the committee, so I think the Bears have a real opportunity.

I would agree with this.  Although there is also a caveat with the SEC teams; they still have a CCG to play.  Should the winner in the West lose the CCG, say 'Bama, does the SEC get the winner of the CCG AND one more, (possibly a 2-loss team,) into the playoff?

 

[Aaron Carrara]

I would agree with this. Although there is also a caveat with the SEC teams; they still have a CCG to play. Should the winner in the West lose the CCG, say 'Bama, does the SEC get the winner of the CCG AND one more, (possibly a 2-loss team,) into the playoff?

True on that but I think Bama beats a Mizzou or Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but.........

Mississippi State hangs at #4, at least this week. They face Vandy and finish up with Ole Miss (ranked 8th in the CFP). The Bulldogs could find themselves in great position when it's all said and done too.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

TCU has Texas and Iowa State left on the schedule.  Baylor has Texas Tech and K-State.  ISU is 2-7 and TTU is 3-7 on the season.

A Baylor win over Kansas State would look better than a TCU win over Texas to the committee, so I think the Bears have a real opportunity.

If I'm Art Briles, I'd worry about the other 5 teams ahead of me, and not TCU. If the time comes to raise hades about H2H, he's got that in his holster. Before then he needs serious help.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

Nothing really matters until the final poll.

The only certainty I see is that Florida State should be the #1 seed as long as they remain the only undefeated team.

It's a dogfight among the 1 loss teams and lots of key games to be played.

 

[Sejjr]

Not that it really matters that much, but it is really ridiculous that ANY 1 loss team is ranked ahead of FSU right now. They are undefeated, and hold the Nation's longest winning streak, and absolutely deserve to be ranked #1 until they lose. 

 

[bcherry168]

It is a lot easier to be undefeated with Florida State's schedule than almost all of the rest of the top 10. I wouldn't have them in the playoff until they quit scheduling mediocre teams. I guess they can't help it if the ACC is not that strong.....but....................

Texas is going to beat TCU. If we played Baylor, OU and UCLA again, we would beat them as well.

You saw it here first.....or second....LOL

 

[castlebravo1]

Unless Ohio State and Miss State lose, no Big 12 team will make the playoff.  TCU and Baylor just don't have the credibility or the political clout to beat out OSU to make it to the 4th spot.  The other 3 will be Alabama, Miss St. and Oregon.  

Big 12 schools with similar records will always get left out of the playoffs in favor of similar Pac12 and SEC teams as long as the conference is filled with mid major football programs like Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, and Iowa State rather than big state schools (with infinite resources) like Texas and Oklahoma.  Yes, Baylor and TCU are up right now, but over the course of many years, they won't have the perennial success that a school with large resources like Texas has.

Even in this environment, I do think Texas and OU will do ok, regardless of the conference's general inferior perception for the same reasons I believe Ohio State jumps into the final 4.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Not that it really matters that much, but it is really ridiculous that ANY 1 loss team is ranked ahead of FSU right now. They are undefeated, and hold the Nation's longest winning streak, and absolutely deserve to be ranked #1 until they lose. 

In 2014, anything you accomplished in 2013 should be irrelevant.

 

[streettopeschel]

It is a lot easier to be undefeated with Florida State's schedule than almost all of the rest of the top 10. I wouldn't have them in the playoff until they quit scheduling mediocre teams. I guess they can't help it if the ACC is not that strong.....but....................

Texas is going to beat TCU. If we played Baylor, OU and UCLA again, we would beat them as well.

You saw it here first.....or second....LOL

don't know when they did it, but scheduling OKSt, Notre Dame along with the traditional FLA game probably looked like a tough non-conference schedule at one point.

 

[GBT]

It has to do with $$$$$$. tOSU and others will bring more money to the table than a Baylor or TCU. Pick any conference. No way any team like them ever gets in. They don't generate national attention like USC, tOSU,Bama, FSU, etc. etc. Along with that fact, you have the $EC bias bullshit.

If they will put an unbeaten defending champion behind TWO one loss teams who haven't really been dominant over teams that aren't that good, they will do whatever it takes to keep the TCU's and Baylor's of the world out even if they are undefeated.

CFB is broken !!!!!

 

[Sejjr]

In 2014, anything you accomplished in 2013 should be irrelevant.

So...losing a game in 2014 puts you ahead of a team who has not lost a game? It is not easy to go undefeated in FBS football, and FSU is the only undefeated team. And when will Alabama get dinged for playing FAU, Southern Miss, and Western Carolina? That is a pathetic OOC schedule. Bama hasn't really played a murderer's row this season either. FSU might not be the best team in the country (and probably aren't), but they are undefeated and deserve to be #1 right now in the polls in my opinion.

Again, it doesn't really matter, because they are a lock for the playoff unless they lose. Just annoying to see 'Bama at #1. Also...Western Carolina in late November? What the hell is that? 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

So...losing a game in 2014 puts you ahead of a team who has not lost a game? It is not easy to go undefeated in FBS football, and FSU is the only undefeated team. And when will Alabama get dinged for playing FAU, Southern Miss, and Western Carolina? That is a pathetic OOC schedule. Bama hasn't really played a murderer's row this season either. FSU might not be the best team in the country (and probably aren't), but they are undefeated and deserve to be #1 right now in the polls in my opinion.

Again, it doesn't really matter, because they are a lock for the playoff unless they lose. Just annoying to see 'Bama at #1. Also...Western Carolina in late November? What the hell is that? 

A big piece of the problem is the concept of linear movement (associated with wins & losses) is something that's be ingrained in fans for 50+ years. Now, starting this year, the CFP committee has thrown the whole concept out the window.

Won/loss record is only one metric that teams are judged on in the new system. Each week, instead of "rewarding/punishing" a team by moving them up or down a poll for a win/loss, the committee starts with a blank sheet. In other words, the fact that Alabama is #1 this week, has no bearing on what team is #1 next week.

 

[Sejjr]

A big piece of the problem is the concept of linear movement (associated with wins & losses) is something that's be ingrained in fans for 50+ years. Now, starting this year, the CFP committee has thrown the whole concept out the window.

Won/loss record is only one metric that teams are judged on in the new system. Each week, instead of "rewarding/punishing" a team by moving them up or down a poll for a win/loss, the committee starts with a blank sheet. In other words, the fact that Alabama is #1 this week, has no bearing on what team is #1 next week.

I agree with that. Fact is, this "poll" really means nothing until the final version arrives. But we as fans need something else to bicker over!

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I think Castlebravo is right here. I don't think TCU or Baylor make it in. There will be two SEC teams in.

IMO, Baylor and TCU both would beat Miss St. IMO, Baylor would beat Bama, perhaps TCU, too.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

Unless Ohio State and Miss State lose, no Big 12 team will make the playoff.  TCU and Baylor just don't have the credibility or the political clout to beat out OSU to make it to the 4th spot.  The other 3 will be Alabama, Miss St. and Oregon.  

Big 12 schools with similar records will always get left out of the playoffs in favor of similar Pac12 and SEC teams as long as the conference is filled with mid major football programs like Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, and Iowa State rather than big state schools (with infinite resources) like Texas and Oklahoma.  Yes, Baylor and TCU are up right now, but over the course of many years, they won't have the perennial success that a school with large resources like Texas has.

Even in this environment, I do think Texas and OU will do ok, regardless of the conference's general inferior perception for the same reasons I believe Ohio State jumps into the final 4.

This is as good a take on the playoff system as I've read anywhere. But I think you might have meant Florida State in the last sentence of the first paragraph?

 

[castlebravo1]

This is as good a take on the playoff system as I've read anywhere. But I think you might have meant Florida State in the last sentence of the first paragraph?

During my train of thought of composing the post, I meant OSU, in the sense that if one SEC team made it and then OSU would get the nod before Baylor or TCU for political reasons.  I do still believe that 2 SEC teams will be in and OSU, Baylor and TCU will be on the outside looking in.  I was trying to make the point that in the absence of a compelling strength of schedule, politics and program clout will be as important as anything in selecting teams to be in the playoff.

 

[GBT]

Because of $$$$ and ESPN, we will never see a TRUE CHAMPION. College Football is broken.