How can Texas beat Baylor?

[Matt Cotcher]

Before I get to some keys to this game, I'll start with this:

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I realize that should go without saying, but given the expectations around here for tomorrow's game, it needs to be said. From an X&O perspective, what Baylor does isn't terribly complicated. Strong & Bedford both seemed very confident this week.

With that in mind, here are some general keys to Saturday's game:

• You’ve heard it by now…Baylor’s OL hasn’t allowed a sack yet this year. Even though DL is an obvious team strength for the Horns, I’m not expecting Texas to get to Petty – not because Baylor’s OL is so good; mostly because of how quickly Petty delivers the ball. Without the sacks/negative plays, there are still several ways for the Longhorn DL to make their presence felt:

1. Be solid on 1st and 2nd down – If Petty consistently faces 3rd and long, that allows Texas to get creative with different zone looks and blitzes. 3rd and short for Baylor forces the Texas D to cover too many different possibilities, tilting the advantage heavily in the Bears’ favor.

2. Tip passes – Engaging with an o-lineman and reaching up to bat passes or close a throwing lane is unnatural. But it is an absolute must for the Texas DL on Saturday afternoon.

3. Even with Petty’s short drops & quick throws, the Horns have enough ability to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Not only do the 2 points above add to this point, but making Petty rush throws/decisions by collapsing the pocket quickly will help the Texas DB’s in coverage.

• Time of possession is a huge key for Texas. If Baylor’s offense is on the sideline, they’re not scoring. TOP also plays directly into having a strong rushing effort in the 2nd half.

• Churning out 30 yards and booming a 45 yard punt is a win in this game. Texas needs to force Baylor to drive the length of the field as much as possible. 3-and-out is the Texas offense’s enemy on Saturday – they need to maintain field position and that means getting a few first downs on each possession.

• Make that first field goal. Rose missed his first attempt in 2 previous games. We all see how points are hard to come by for this offense, so take advantage of every scoring opportunity. Putting points on the board early also helps keep the team confident and loose.

• When Swoopes leaves the pocket, every receiver should automatically break off their route and run a fly. Swoopes has the arm strength to get them the ball, and if a DB hesitates for a split second (deciding whether to play the run/scramble), that should be more than enough time for a receiver to get downfield separation.

• Judging from the KU game, Mykkele Thompson will be lined up out wide in coverage on Saturday. If Hicks, Edmond & Hall are able to contain Baylor’s running game without help, then the whole defense is at an advantage. Those 3 players hold a huge key to the Baylor gameplan.

• Jonathan Gray and Malcolm Brown haven’t separated from each other through four games, and the coaching staff has split their carries nearly 50/50. On Saturday, the Texas offense needs one of the two guys to step up their game and demand the ball.

 

[Aaron Carrara]

Good points Matt. I'll throw in that John Harris needs to have a big game. Swoopes will take plenty of shots down field and his favorite deep-ball target will need to have sticky hands.

 

[Etex Horn]

Texas can win with time consuming, point producing offensive drives.  Obviously, Texas has to play spectacular on defense.  In other 

words, Texas must cut down on the time and opportunities for Baylor offensive plays, as they are a potent point producing offense.

Wish I had something more intelligent to offer, but that's how I see it.  Baylor is dangerous on offense and Texas must win the

"time of possession" stat. Long drives by Texas offense and keep the ball away from Baylor.  

 

[Lukus Alderman]

Texas will need to play completely different offensively than they have so far. They will need to be able to challenge and win Matchups against DBs ten yards or more past the LOS. They will also need to run various misdirection plays to take advantage of their overpursuit.

Defensively, as Matt mentioned the line must pressure the pocket and get their hands up to bat balls. Baylor's OLine has wide splits which makes it more difficult for the DEs to get to the QB quickly, so Texas needs to find a way to use that in their favor, either by blitzes, DEs dropping into coverage, etc. And the DBs must knock the WRs off their routes as soon as the ball is snapped. Many of the passes are made within 2 or 3 seconds of the snap. That limits the time that the secondary has to get their hands on the receiver and knock them off of their routes. If the WRs are knocked off of their routes, it gives the DLine more time to get yo the QB.

 

[LHornjack]

Matt and Luke,

Love you guys and your posts, but think this Baylor animal is not traditional.

TOP is irrelevant to Art Briles and Baylor.  Both Buffalo and Northwestern had a lot more time of possession. He wants 7 points.

Also doesn't care a lot about field position.  He runs the same plays and has the same approach no matter where he is on the field.

For us to win..we have to be able to run the ball more than 2 yards per carry.

We have to run patterns and throw passes further than 2 yard outs and 3 yards across the middle. On the rare occasion that we throw downfield we have to complete at least 5 deep downfield passes and 10-15 midrange (generally plays we don't even try.)

I think our D has to score at least 3 touchdowns. Turnovers alone won't do it. Because our O shows very very  little propensity to take advantage of turnovers. Think our O can score 14-17 against Baylor which is why our D would have to score 20.

Greg Robinson's D did a good job against Baylor, we just had no threat to keep their D honest, as by that time Case could not complete a pass longer than 10 yards and could not move the chains.

See this game similar, with Baylor scoring more than last year.

 

[utisdabomb12]

Case completed passes longer than 10 yards. Granted, it was to the other team.

 

[utisdabomb12]

I'll say this from watching Baylor's defense. They are very agressive, maybe the most agressive I've seen in the country. They are almost willing to give up a few big plays if they can force a couple turnovers. Texas needs to go down field because plays will be there, but they also need to run some screens. Simple screens can be very effective against Baylor.

 

[Lukus Alderman]

I'll say this from watching Baylor's defense. They are very agressive, maybe the most agressive I've seen in the country. They are almost willing to give up a few big plays if they can force a couple turnovers. Texas needs to go down field because plays will be there, but they also need to run some screens. Simple screens can be very effective against Baylor.

This is what I saw as well (as you'll see in my Breakdown article). They are very aggressive and leave their DBs in one-on-one coverage. They also overpursue, leaving misdirection plays available. I think Daje and A Foreman have an opportunity to make noise if the coaches will use them.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

TOP is irrelevant to Art Briles and Baylor.  Both Buffalo and Northwestern had a lot more time of possession. He wants 7 points.

Also doesn't care a lot about field position.  He runs the same plays and has the same approach no matter where he is on the field.

I agree with those points. But TOP & Field Position mean a ton to Texas, not Baylor. TOP & Field Position will both significantly help the Texas defense.

It's a 2-way street & I agree that Baylor could care less about either stat....but they're both poised to be meaningful to the other 11 guys on the field.

 

[HornEsch]

Unleash the Horns!

 

[HornEsch]

Unleash the Horns!

 

[Juan]

How can Texas beat Baylor?