Texas enters the Citrus Bowl as a touchdown favorite, but the Longhorns face significant questions about whether a defense hit hard by opt‐
outs can still dictate the game the way it did most of the season. Seven defensive starters are reportedly unavailable due to NFL Draft
decisions and transfer portal moves, putting pressure on a unit that had been the team’s clear strength and ranked among the nation’s better
defenses in opponent EPA per play. That attrition collides with Michigan’s physical run game and a mobile quarterback,raising concerns
about Texas’ ability to set the edge, generate its usual pass rush, and maintain the turnover advantage that fueled a +12 margin during the
year. On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns’ challenge is more about consistency than star power, after an up‐and‐down regular season
in which Arch Manning and an offense loaded with talent still finished just 92nd nationally in offensive success rate, leaving open the
question of whether they can sustain drives against a disciplined Wolverines front.
For Michigan, the biggest hurdle is navigating turmoil and transition while facing a motivated blueblood that already handled the
Wolverines decisively last season. Michigan’s staff upheaval — including the firing of Sherrone Moore and the elevation of Biff Poggi as
interim head coach while Kyle Whittingham waits in the wings — forces the players to adapt to different voices and potentially new wrinkles
in game planning on a very short timeline. The roster picture is comparatively stable, but key opt‐outs and injuries on both lines and in the
secondary thin the depth chart, increasing the pressure on freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to protect the ball and extend plays
without forcing throws against a defense still capable of creating negative plays. Michigan’s offense also faces the strategic challenge of
imposing its preferred methodical,run‐heavy tempo against a Texas team that can speed the game up, making third‐down execution and
red‐zone efficiency critical if the Wolverines hope to flip the narrative from underdog to spoiler in Orlando.
The Longhorns are undefeated all-time against Michigan. Will they make it 3-0 versus the Wolverines after the Citrus Bowl?
Our staff weighs in with their thoughts on how the game plays out in Orlando, with thoughts and analysis.
Jameson McCausland (9-3)
This feels like an impossible game to predict with all the opt-outs. I am concerned about the number of pieces Texas will be missing defensively, but on the flip side, the opt-outs for the Michigan defense increase my confidence for a Texas offense that ended the regular season on a high note.
I’ll take Texas in a very close game that features Bryce Underwood and Arch Manning playing good football to end 2025.
Score Prediction: Texas 28, Michigan 24
Aaron Carrara (8-4)
Let’s be honest, this game is a big question mark all the way around. Both teams are decimated by NFL Draft prospects and transfer portal refugees, but both will have their starting quarterbacks in Orlando. Who has more weapons on both sides of the ball? I would be lying if I said I knew. We will see a lot of new faces wearing burnt orange and maize and blue, and I’m excited to see which guys insert themselves as future faces for both programs.
Michigan is dealing with significantly deeper issues, those on a program-level, and Texas is not. I think that adds a tremendous advantage for the Longhorns, despite seeing some self-made changes within the coaching staff.
The ‘Horns have won six of their last seven games and I give them the advantage on Wednesday in Orlando.
Score Prediction: Texas 35, Michigan 27
Devon Messinger (9-3)
Wednesday’s postseason contest may ultimately come down to which team is feeling the Cheesiest.
Down several opt-outs, the Longhorns will face an uphill battle when it comes to replacing talent. However, in the long run, this could bode well as an opportunity to get extended looks at some underclassmen.
Meanwhile, Michigan is dealing with its own share of turnover, including a new coach and the loss of several key players.
With so much change on both sides, this is a difficult game to forecast – but I’ll put my faith in Arch Manning getting one last say.
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Michigan 21
Marc Henry (8-4)
Keys to a Texas Win: Arch Manning must play big
Texas will go as far as Arch Manning takes them. He needs to be poised, confident, and aggressive when opportunities arise. Making plays with his arm while keeping the offense on schedule will be critical against a physical Michigan defense.
No turnovers, smart decisions: Winning the turnover battle is essential. Texas must protect the football, especially in high-leverage moments like third downs and the red zone. Limiting mistakes keeps momentum on Texas’ side and prevents Michigan from controlling the game with field position.
Texas defense must apply pressure: Michigan wants to play a physical, methodical style. Texas has to disrupt that by winning at the line of scrimmage, creating negative plays, and forcing Michigan into uncomfortable passing situations.
Colin Simmons leads the pass rush: Colin Simmons is the catalyst up front. His ability to pressure the quarterback, collapse the pocket, and set the edge can change the game. If Simmons and the defensive front get consistent pressure, Texas can dictate tempo and take control.
Bottom line: If Arch plays clean football, Texas protects the ball, and the defense, led by Colin Simmons, wins up front, the Longhorns will be in position to come out on top in the Citrus Bowl.
Score Prediction: Texas 31, Michigan 21
Mitch Lovell (9-3)
Michigan comes in with many distractions, starting with a scandal around Sherrone Moore’s recent termination. It is impossible for a team to stay focused with something like that looming over the program. Texas has eight starters opting out, but Arch Manning will continue to build on his strong finish to the season. Look for Manning and the passing attack to click early and often. The Texas pass rush will be too much for Bryce Underwood which will force multiple turnovers by the defense.
Score Prediction: Texas 27, Michigan 14
