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Texas Longhorns Football

Staff Predictions: Texas vs. Baylor

Photo: USA TODAY Sports Images



The Texas Longhorns (2-2, 1-2) are coming off a bye week after losing a 4OT thriller to rival Oklahoma two weekends ago in Dallas. The Baylor Bears (1-1, 1-1) will have had three weeks off due to positive COVID-19 tests among its athletes, before taking the field at DKR on Saturday.  The Longhorns are nine point favorites against the Bears, but nobody in Austin is looking at point spreads – Tom Herman and the team would be satisfied with a win on Saturday regardless of the final score.  Baylor handed Texas a 24-10 loss last season in Waco, clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The Bears are 2-3 in their last 5 games in Austin.

Do the Bears have enough this year under first year head coach Dave Aranda to upset a struggling Texas team at home?

The HornSports staff weighs in with their predictions.

Jameson McCausland

It certainly has felt like the longest two weeks ever for many Texas fans, players and coaches. There have been a lot of off the field distractions centering around The Eyes of Texas and Tom Herman’s future. Baylor is a tough team to get a read on. Charlie Brewer has arguably regressed over the last year (likely due to playing through injuries) and the Bears lost a ton of talent on defense. One thing they do have going for them is Dave Aranda is a very good defensive coach. If Texas comes out with another vanilla gameplan similar to what they showed against OU, they will lose, plain and simple. I expect this to be another close game and a little bit lower scoring than many people may be expecting. I will take Texas to squeak out a win, but I don’t anyone can say they have a good read on this team right now.

Score Prediction: Texas 24, Baylor 20

Tristan Larsen

Texas is coming off of a 2 game skid and needs a win more than ever to revive their dying season. Baylor is coming off a loss themselves and with games getting postponed due to COVID-19, they need a win to kick their season into gear.  Baylor is going to rely on four year starter, Charlie Brewer to get the job done against the Longhorns. Brewer in his career is 1-2 against Texas. In those games he’s completing a hair above 58% of his passes for just 642 yards with just 2 touchdowns to 1 interception. Sam Ehlinger on the other hand has yet to throw for a touchdown against Baylor in his career. In a game like this, I’m always riding with the hungrier team, the team that has more to play for and right now that’s Texas. After an embarrassing two game losing streak, for the sake of salvaging this season, they need to come out firing on all cylinders. Give me the team with more playmakers to just find ways to make plays on Saturday. Expect Texas to win, but Baylor scores late to cover the point spread

Score Prediction: Texas 34, Baylor 30

Devon Messinger

While Texas’s game against Oklahoma was important, Saturday’s game against Baylor will be critical. The Longhorns will have to prove that their early season struggles have been just a fluke, or else Tom Herman’s hot seat will be placed on a higher level.

The game will come down to Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer’s performance. In last year’s matchup, Brewer outdueled Sam Ehlinger and led the Bears in rushing. This Saturday, Brewer will have to be just as efficient and contribute to Baylor’s running game, which has been lacking in potency. In addition to Brewer, Texas’s offensive line play will be another x-factor in this game. Against Baylor in 2019, the unit allowed Sam Ehlinger to be sacked five times. This season, against Oklahoma, the group gave up six sacks. If Ehlinger is given a clean pocket, the Longhorns will be in a great position to win.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Baylor 28


I’ve thought about this one all week, and I can’t escape that old saying. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” This is a winnable game for Texas. They should win this game. But…this is a team that hasn’t been able to get out of its own way and put together a clean, complete performance through three weeks of conference play. And despite all of Baylor’s COVID issues and lack of preparation, I see more of the same from the guys in burnt orange who are notorious for playing down to their competition under Herman. I expect an ugly, frustrating match-up a la TCU where Texas has its chances to seal the deal, but they ultimately fall short late. At the very least, I’d take Baylor to cover.

Score Prediction: Baylor 34, Texas 31.

Aaron Carrara

Tom Herman is likely playing for his job and his players are tired of losing games they should win.  Texas continues to ride the shoulders of Sam Ehlinger every game and barring a massive overhaul to the offense, it looks like it will be more of that this week.  We keep looking for the ground game (sans Ehlinger) to get going, but every week Ehlinger continues to lead his team in rushing.  The offense can be explosive, but it is very one dimensional.  Baylor demolished Kansas 47-14 in its season opener and followed that up with an OT loss t the Mountaineers in Morgantown.  It remains to be seen how a Baylor team that hasn’t played much thus far in the season will match up against Texas on Saturday.  Despite a lot of unknowns, I’m giving the Bears and senior quarterback Charlie Brewer a shot to hang in there until the game clock expires.  Texas wins this one but not by much.

Score Prediction: Texas 34, Baylor 31

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