The Longhorns are entering this year’s Red River Showdown looking to earn their first victory over the Sooners since 2015. Our staff analyzes if Texas can come away with the victory in Dallas this weekend.
Daniel Seahorn (2-3)
This is one of my favorite rivalries because records don’t matter, and anything can happen once the ball is teed up in the Cotton Bowl. 50/50 split right down the middle. Burnt orange and white on one side with crimson and cream on the other.
Last year the Longhorns almost pulled off the upset despite having a freshman signal-caller facing off with the eventual Heisman Trophy winner, but almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. This isn’t the NFL, where for some reason they still allow teams to tie. There has to be a winner and there has to be loser.
The Sooners hold the edge offensively with Kyler Murray leading a very explosive offense that will provide Todd Orlando’s defense with their stiffest test to date. On the flip side, Texas has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and will definitely provide a solid test for Murray and the Sooner offense on Saturday.
I predict this game will be close when the clock strikes triple zeroes on Saturday. I’m also expecting both teams to hang some crooked numbers. The Longhorns have proved me wrong on multiple occasions this year. And they will have to do so again this weekend. I’m picking the Sooners in a tight one in Dallas.
Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas 27
Jameson McCausland (4-1)
It’s been a long time since a Texas-OU has meant so much. The Longhorns have an opportunity to knock off a team with playoff aspirations while continuing to pursue their goal of winning a Big 12 championship. Not many experts are giving Texas a chance, and it’s understandable. Kyler Murray is a legitimate Heisman contender and he has dangerous weapons all around him.
If there is one factor working heavily in Texas’ favor, it is the fact that Mike Stoops fields a defense that has a ton of question marks. The Longhorns have a huge size advantage outside at WR and Keaontay Ingram should be close to 100%. Texas is going to have to sustain drives and use the clock, but they need to also understand that playing conservative is a good way to get embarrassed and have the game be over by halftime.
I think this is a very close game, but it’s hard to go against Oklahoma and what they can do on offense. I think Texas is able to get enough stops to make it a game, but it’s hard to contain Kyler Murray and Lincoln Riley’s offense for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Texas 31
Aaron Carrara (4-1)
Oklahoma owns a two-game win streak over the Longhorns, but those two games have been decided by just 10 points. Both teams are ranked in the Top 25, and the winner will be in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 crown. This is a high stakes game and I think the Longhorns are up for the challenge. Texas is finally healthy again and Sam Ehlinger’s development from game-to-game is apparent. Expect Keaontay Ingram to carry the load on the ground, and expect the Texas secondary to be challenged often. All-in-all, Tom Herman has to like where his team is heading into the big game on Saturday.
With that being said, Oklahoma is an offensive machine. Kyler Murray is playing at an extremely high-level, and he has an array of weapons at his disposal. Conversely, Texas has to see potential for success against Lincoln Riley’s defense, which ranks 90th amongst FBS teams.
This is a rivalry game where records are thrown out and hunger matters. Tom Herman said last week that winning is “intoxicating.” I think Texas wants to eat on Saturday, and will carry the “buzz” into Baylor next Saturday.
Prediction: Texas 34, Oklahoma 31
Harrison Wier (2-3)
It’s been a couple of years since Texas defeated Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl, but this year is as good as any for the Longhorns to shift the momentum in their favor. In rivalry games, anything can happen — and nobody knows this better than Texas.
The main advantage Texas has over the Sooners heading into this year’s matchup is defense. The Oklahoma defense has struggled against the likes of Army and Baylor, whereas the Texas defense is one of the best in the Big 12. Add this to the fact that Oklahoma has faced opponents whose combined record falls below .500 and Texas has quite the recipe for success.
The problem with this recipe is that the Texas offense has been inconsistent this season and the Texas defense will have to face its toughest challenge yet — containing Kyler Murray. Although Murray hasn’t been challenged much this season, expect Todd Orlando to give him everything he can handle, including having LB Gary Johnson serve as a quarterback spy all day long.
Although Texas has a great opportunity to pull away with a victory, I believe they’ll come up just short. Oklahoma is going to put up points, and the Texas offense has stalled just enough this season to give me doubts about their ability to keep up with a high-powered offense like Oklahoma.
Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Baylor
Texas narrowly escaped with a victory against Baylor on Saturday, and there are several areas that the Longhorns must clean up to stay atop the Big 12
Another week, another close ballgame that came down to the final drive for Texas. The Longhorns found themselves behind the eight ball when Sam Ehlinger exited the game with an injury in the 1st quarter, and Baylor ended up giving Texas all they could handle. Regardless, Texas is now 6-1 and sits alone atop of the Big 12 conference standings. The Longhorns will gladly welcome the bye week as they prepare for the final stretch of the season. Let’s take a look at the good and the bad from a 23-17 win over the Bears:
Texas finally has a 100-yard rusher
For the first time in the Tom Herman era, Texas had a 100-yard rusher. Freshman Keaontay Ingram finished the afternoon with 110 yards on 19 carries. It’s hard to believe it had been 20 games since the Longhorns had someone surpass the 100-yard rushing mark, but it is only appropriate Ingram was the one to break the streak. Ingram continues to see an uptick in touches and has proven to be the best running back on the roster.
Collin Johnson continues to dominate
Texas now has a good problem on their hands. Collin Johnson is playing himself into position to be a potential high NFL draft pick, and I don’t think you will find many people who are upset about it. Johnson has cemented himself as a number 1 receiver after turning in another great performance on Saturday, hauling in 11 receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown. The biggest improvement he has made from his first two seasons is his physicality. Johnson has proven to be reliable going over the middle of the field while also also improving his ability beat corners off the line of scrimmage.
It’s hard to find a lot of negative when you look at Ryan Bujcevski’s stat line: 47.8 yards per punt and 3 punts inside the 20. Unfortunately, the stats do not tell the full story. Texas continues to have major issues getting punts off in a timely manner, and I am beginning to think it is more on Bujcevski than the protection unit. The Aussie takes far too long to get the ball off his foot once he receives the snap. Baylor nearly had a block yesterday, and it is a minor miracle the Longhorns have not had a punt blocked this year.
Opening drive scores
The Texas defense has had a tough time stopping opponents on their opening drives this season. In the 7 opening drives opponents have had against the Longhorns this year, 5 have ended in either a touchdown or field goal. Todd Orlando has stressed the importance of starting fast on defense, but a trend has emerged.
Cameron Dicker comes back to earth
Cameron Dicker carried over his momentum from his game winner against Oklahoma, going 3 for 3 on field goals in the first half, including a 47-yarder to end the half. The second half was a different story. Dicker missed a 34-yard attempt late in the 4th quarter that would have given Texas a 9-point lead. He followed it up with a miss from 51 yards. It has been a roller coaster ride for Tom Herman as he tries to manage the punting and kicking unit, but it’s hard to expect anything less since he is having to trot out a true freshman punter and kicker.
Zero second half points
The Longhorns had 5 drives in the second half — 2 ending in punts, 2 in missed field goals and one with an interception. Similar to the Kansas State game, the Texas offense moved the ball at times in the second half but were hurt by the inability to finish drives. Tom Herman and the offensive staff have shown improvements in making halftime adjustments, but the staff failed to put Shane Buechele and the offense in a position to finish off drives against a Baylor defense that ranked at or near the bottom of the Big 12 in nearly every major statistical category.
Sam Ehlinger’s injury
Texas fans now have a greater appreciation for Sam Ehlinger after watching the offense try to operate for almost 4 full quarters without him. Shane Buechele is considered a quality passer, but he fails to bring the running dimension to the offense that Ehlinger brings. The Longhorn offense is built around Ehlinger, and if he were to miss any extended period of time, it would not be good. If he is healthy enough for Oklahoma State, he needs to play. The Texas offense is not good enough to plug in the backup and rest the starter, even against a team like Oklahoma State.
Seahorn’s Five Thoughts: Baylor
Things didn’t go according to plan from the jump with Sam Ehlinger suffering a shoulder injury during the first series of the football game. Yet the Longhorns managed to gut out a win against the pesky Bears of Waco and move to 6-1 on the season. The Longhorns have now won 6 in a row and still have a chance to accomplish the goals they set out for at the start of the season. The main thing right now is for them to get healthy and nurse some bumps and bruises before heading to Stillwater to take on the Cowboys.
Here’s what I’ve got on my mind after today’s tight contest against Baylor.
- It Wasn’t Pretty… but it was a Win
This game had a hard left turn in the first offensive series for Texas, with Ehlinger suffering a shoulder injury that would eventually rule him out for the rest of the game. This meant backup quarterback Shane Buechele was called in cold to guide the ship for the rest of the contest. Buechele hasn’t received a game snap all year long, and was thrown right into the pressure cooker. Thankfully the junior quarterback has several starts under his belt and he was able to lean on that experience to help get the Longhorns across the finish line today with a win today.
Don’t get it twisted, though. Ehlinger going out early completely changed the dynamics of this ball game and how the Texas offense typically operates. The designed quarterback runs were out the window, Ehlinger’s ability to improvise and hurt a defense with his feet was gone, and most importantly, the steady hand that has guided the Texas offense all year long was gone. Nobody really knew what to expect when Buechele was thrust into action this afternoon. He made some nice throws, led some solid drives, but he also had one interception on a ball that he overshot on a post, resulting in points for Baylor.
On the flip side of things the Texas defense had a solid day at the office, but with the offense handling some adversity, they had a tall task of slowing down a capable offense. The secondary had some forgettable moments today (particularly on third down and long), but at the end of the day they were able to hold the Baylor offense to 17 points and 328 yards of offense. When you take into account that a good chunk of that came on the final drive when the Bears started in the shadows of their own goal posts, then it’s not too bad in the grand scheme of things.
This wasn’t a style-point game like many hoped it would be and it wasn’t always pretty, but it was still a win nonetheless and you will take them however you can get them.
- Keaontay Ingram Goes Over the Century Mark
Coming into the contest, Texas had yet to tally a 100-yard rusher, but that came to end via freshman running back Keaontay Ingram. Ingram led the Texas rushing attack to the tune of 110 yards on 19 carries (5.78 YPC) and he dazzled with some really nice runs, showing off his vision and patience in the process.
Ingram flashes remarkable traits and often seems to get positive yardage when it looks like he has no room to run. There were times where I could see penetration from the Baylor front before Ingram got to the LOS and he still managed to squeeze through the hole and pop out on the other side. Mind you, this is all transpiring after Tom Herman said that Ingram isn’t playing at 100% from the injury that caused him to miss a game earlier this year.
The future is bright for #26 in burnt orange, who looks better every week.
- Dicker the Kicker is Mortal
Freshman kicker Cameron Dicker showed today that even after draining a game-winning kick against Oklahoma last week and making three field goals afternoon, he is in fact capable of missing. The freshman from Lake Travis started the day 3 for 3 before missing two kicks (both his shortest and longest attempts) that would have put the game out of reach for Baylor.
It may sound like I’m nitpicking here on a freshman, but when points were at a premium like they were today, you have to push one of those through and give yourself a little more wiggle room.
- The Secondary has Some Sore Spots That Need Addressing
The Texas defense only allowed 240 yards passing today against a pretty good offense, but they were also fortunate in some cases that it wasn’t more. This is going to feel like I’m calling some guys out, but when Baylor needed a big play or was in a crucial spot they seemed to always go at whoever PJ Locke or Davante Davis was covering.
Both Davis and Locke have spilled blood for the program and have been solid citizens, but it seems obvious at times that teams are picking on them. I’ve been quietly wondering if the defensive staff would start working in some alternative options, but as the season has moved forward they’ve continued to roll with their guys.
I don’t have access to how practices play out, so I’m not sure if guys like Josh Thompson or Anthony Cook aren’t doing enough to unseat the veterans, but I know what I see on Saturdays hasn’t been great. Eventually it could get this team beat if the right opponent presents itself.
- The Injury of Sam Ehlinger
I hate ending on a sour note, but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a tad bit concerned about the injury that kept Ehlinger out for essentially the entire ball game. When Ehlinger emerged from the locker room, most thought he was just getting the cut on his hand addressed, but others noticed he was not really moving his shoulder as he moved around. Herman addressed the media after the game and disclosed that Ehlinger suffered an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder, and that they were hopeful that he could be throwing by the end of the week.
The silver lining is that Texas is heading into a bye week, so Texas has an extra week to get 11 healthy. If he does have to miss a game, they have an extra week to get Buechele reps and game ready for road test against a team that Texas has struggled with in recent contests.
The down side of things is that injury of this nature could take several weeks to fully heal, and with Ehlinger being as important as he is to the team, you may not want to risk further aggravating the injury. Needless to say, this is going to be something to monitor closely as the matchup gets closer.
Staff Predictions: Baylor vs. Texas
Texas looks to continue its winning ways against an underrated Baylor team
The Baylor Bears travel to Austin to try and end the Longhorns’ current streak of success. Since Art Briles left, the Baylor program has not been the same — but Matt Rhule appears to have the Bears heading in the right direction. The Baylor offense will give the Texas defense some problems, but having a full crowd at DKR after a big rivalry win will make it very difficult for the Bears to pull off the upset.
Daniel Seahorn (2-4)
Can this Texas team put a big Oklahoma win behind them and avoid a hangover against the Bears from Waco? I for one am anxious to see how this team handles success as the season wears on, particularly after a win over a conference rival that was exhausting physically and emotionally.
The Longhorns are the better team on paper and should be on Saturday. The Bears aren’t going to roll over, though. They have an offense that is able to give a defense some problems. The Longhorns control their destiny after the win over the Sooners, and now more than ever need to be following their mantra of going 1-0 each week. Focus on the task at hand with the Bears, and everything else will take care of itself.
I like the the Longhorns to be victorious this week, but I expect the Bears to be more competitive than they were last year in Waco.
Prediction: Texas 45, Baylor 27
Jameson McCausland (4-2)
The trend with Texas this season is playing up and down to their competition. If that continues on Saturday, Texas will find itself in a close ballgame late in the 4th quarter. The 2018 Baylor Bears are not as bad as some think. They are extremely thin at certain positions, but Matt Rhule has brought in some nice pieces to build around, namely QB Charlie Brewer.
The Baylor defense is terrible, and that is putting it nicely. This is a unit that is worse than the Oklahoma unit Texas put up 48 points on a week ago. I expect big games from Tre Watson and Keaontay Ingram, and I will predict a long touchdown for Devin Duvernay. Baylor will hang around for most of the game, but I expect the Texas offense to simply be too much.
Prediction: Texas 38, Baylor 21
Aaron Carrara (5-1)
Post-Oklahoma, Tom Herman mentioned how nice it was for his offense to carry the team instead of having to rely on the defense to get the job done. The Longhorns will need Sam Ehlinger and the offense to put up points and carry the team against a Baylor offense that is equally as capable as the Sooners. Texas has the edge in defense, which is why I think they get the job done on Saturday. I expect Texas to have success in the air against the Bears, but I would be surprised if they aren’t run-heavy against a defense that allows almost 200 rushing yards per game. Keaontay Ingram was 14 yards shy of the century mark against the Sooners, but he could be in for a big day on Saturday. Todd Orlando’s defense needs to play better than they did in the 4th quarter against Oklahoma, or it could be an interesting game. Baylor is no slouch and Texas knows it, but Tom Herman has done a fantastic job of preaching and ingraining the 1-0 mentality week after week with his players.
Prediction: Texas 38, Baylor 31
Harrison Wier (2-4)
Baylor is no slouch. Texas fans may not know it, but Texas certainly does. If the Longhorns allow the Bears to stay in the game, things could get interesting late. I ultimately believe Texas will come away victorious due to lack of productivity from the Bears defense this season.
Todd Orlando has a great opportunity to use this game as a confidence-builder for his unit. The Baylor offense is extremely capable of putting up points on anyone, and if Texas holds, it could do wonders for the unit’s confidence after giving up 21 unanswered points to Oklahoma last week. The Texas offense has been consistent and dominant lately, and that should not change on Saturday. I expect big games from Sam Ehlinger and the Texas running back corps.
Ultimately, Texas should be too much for Baylor. Matt Rhule has the Bears heading in the right direction, but the program is just not quite there in terms of competing with the rest of the conference. Texas will impose its will at times and hopefully not take its foot off the gas.
Prediction: Texas 42, Baylor 31
Defensive Preview: Baylor
The Texas offense looks to exploit an inexperienced and underperforming Baylor defense this Saturday
While the Baylor offense has taken steps forward in 2018, the defense still finds itself struggling mightily. The Bears do not have a lot of depth and are relying on players who simply should not be seeing the field this early in their career. Nevertheless Matt Rhule has to work with what he has — a few decent upperclassmen and a lot of players still trying to put everything together. Baylor has been gashed on the ground and through the air, and Texas is coming off a victory resulting in the firing of a defensive coordinator. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the Baylor defense:
Baylor’s defensive line is anchored in the middle by NT Ira Lewis, who is in his 3rd season as a full-time starter. Lewis will serve as a good challenge for Zach Shackelford, who has struggled in the past with big and effective nose tackles. James Lynch is the Bears best pass rusher, tallying 4 sacks through the first 6 games of 2018.
As a whole, the Baylor defensive line has been productive against inferior competition and has been dominated by superior competition. Against Oklahoma and Kansas State — arguably the top two offensive lines in the Big 12 — the Bears allowed huge chunk plays in the run game, while their pass rush was also neutralized.
After watching previous games, it’s not hard to conclude that Baylor lacks quality linebacker play. This unit is small, struggles against the run and can’t defend in space. Former WR Blake Lynch, who played with Kris Boyd at Gilmer, made the switch from WR to defense this season, and the 210-pounder now finds himself at linebacker. Middle linebacker Clay Johnston has had a quiet season, failing to record a TFL thus far.
The linebackers and defensive line share equal blame with how poorly Baylor has defended the run. The Bears linebackers are not being helped out by the defensive line, but they also need to improve on plugging holes and diagnosing plays.
Two weeks ago, Kyler Murray threw for 432 yards on just 17 completions against the Baylor secondary. The big plays are there for the Texas offense. The Bears are very young at corner, with sophomores Harrison Hand and Raleigh Texada both seeing the field along with freshman Kalon Barnes. Temple graduate transfer Derrek Thomas is the most experienced of the group, but quite frankly has had a rough season.
Safety Chris Miller is the team’s leading tackler with 34 and will be used to help slow down the Texas rushing attack. Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are likely licking their chops watching film this week. Devin Duvernay should also get a fair share of looks down the field as Texas tries to take the top off the Bears’ defense.
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