The Longhorns are IN - NCAA Tournament selection thread

[utisdabomb12]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state/spartans/2015/03/12/michigan-state-kevin-pauga/70194756/

This article gives you some insight into what data points are used by the committee to determine seeds. Essentially they compare the RPI top 100, the KPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, BPI and LRMC rankings.

Texas

RPI: 42

KPI: 39

Sagarin: 21

Kenpom: 19

BPI: 25

LRMC: 21

Average = 27.83. Which puts us on the 7 seed line if that data = discussion points for the committee. Do I think we finish with a 7 seed, hell no. But the data that the committee uses is really skewed in our advantage for some reason.

I actually had a good conversation with Kevin Pauga (the guy that came up with KPI). Something that's a huge myth, and something I didn't know, is that the committee does not A) Look at conference record. B )Does not look how you finish (they look at the entire resume). Other factors come into play like RPI top 50 wins, road record, top 100 losses, etc but not those two criteria.

 

[utisdabomb12]

Looking at bubble teams. 

BYU (38 RPI, 1 top 50 RPI win, 4 top 100 wins, SOS of 75, 3 sub 100 RPI losses) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 203)

Ole MIss (55 RPI, 3 top 50 wins, 9 top 100 wins, SOS of 46, 4 sub 100 RPI losses) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 266 )

Temple (34 RPI, 2 top 50 wins, 8 top 100 wins, SOS of 60, 2 sub 100 RPI losses) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 363)

Boise State (44 RPI, 3 top 50 wins, 4 top 100 wins, SOS of 132, 3 sub 100 RPI losses) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 276)

Colorado State (29 RPI, 2 top 50 wins, 5 top 100 wins, SOS of 118, 1 sub 100 RPI loss) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 300)

LSU (53 RPI, 3 top 50 wins, 12 top 100 wins, SOS of 97. 5 sub 100 RPI losses) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 252)

Indiana (56 RPI, 4 top 50 wins, 8 top 100 wins, SOS of 22, 1 sub 100 RPI loss) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC: 281 )

Texas (42 RPI, 3 top 50 wins, 8 top 100 wins, SOS of 15, 0 sub 100 RPI losses) (combined RPI/KPI/Sagarin/Kenpom/BPI/LRMC:167)

IMO Texas' resume is better than all the bubble teams above for several reasons. 1- Texas is way ahead in terms of the data that the NCAA uses (RPI, KPI, Sagarin, BPI, Kenpom, LRMC) 2- Texas is the only team without a bad loss (sub 100 loss) 3-Texas SOS is by far the best.

Texas also has as many top 50 wins as all the above teams (except for Indiana). Texas has as many top 100 wins as all the above teams (except for Ole Miss and LSU). The difference between RPI top 50 wins and top 100 wins is pretty insignificant. BYU is really the only team above that doesn't have the resume in term of top 50 and 100 wins. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

I don't think Tulsa, Old Dominion, UCLA, Miami, Murray State have a shot to get a bid. So looking at the teams above....

1) Texas
2) Ole Miss
3) Indiana
4) LSU
5) Colorado State

6) BYU
7) Temple
8) Boise State

Only one of these teams wouldn't make the tournament (so Boise would be the odd man out). If UCONN steals a bid (temple would be the next odd man out). So I tend to agree with Lundardi that Texas is probably around the last bye in. An argument can probably be made for why we should be slotted ahead of Georgia and Purdue. 

At the end of the day, I think Texas ends up a low 11 or high 10 seed. Knock on wood.

 

[Chris Flanagan]

I would rather have Texas on a lower line. An 11 or 12 seed has made a run to the Sweet 16 I think the last couple of tourneys. Those 3-5 seeds are weaker and Texas obviously has the talent to take them down. Will they? Probably not but if they can make a sweet 16 run, it might save Barnes's job.

 

[Juan]

I would be at peace with this if it guaranteed a coaching change

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Horns have been told they're in but they don't know seeding yet.

 

[streettopeschel]

Matt that's a mighty big matzo ball out there if you're wrong

 

[utisdabomb12]

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Texas is a 10 in bracket matrix. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

Andy Bottoms of the Assembly Call has Texas as a 10. He's been the most accurate bracketologist over the years. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

SMU up 33 to 19 at the half against UCONN. Unless there's a big shift in the second half, doesn't look like UCONN is stealing a bid. 

 

[Bear19]

Matt that's a mighty big matzo ball out there if you're wrong

A pair of balls.

 

[Juan]

 

[Juan]

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[utisdabomb12]

SMU holds on, UCONN doesn't steal a bid. Good news for bubble teams. Only 1 team is going to get screwed on the wrong side of the bubble IMO. 

 

[joeywa]

Hearing we drew St. John's.  Any confirmation of this?

 

[utisdabomb12]

Hearing we drew St. John's.  Any confirmation of this?

No confirmation from what I've seen but that's been the draw in a lot of mock brackets. 

 

[Bear19]

How does this info leak out?

 

[joeywa]

Ouch. Butler in Rd 2 then a possible matchup vs ND.

 

[utisdabomb12]

Texas is an 11, no play in game. Playing Butler.