• Baton Rouge, Louisiana – LSU (48-10)
• Champaign, Illinois – Illinois (47-8-1)
• College Station, Texas – Texas A&M (45-11)
• Coral Gables, Florida – Miami (Fla.) (44-14)
• Dallas, Texas – Dallas Baptist (43-13)
• Fort Worth, Texas – TCU (43-11)
• Fullerton, California – Cal State Fullerton (34-22)
• Gainesville, Florida – Florida (*43-16)
• Houston, Texas – Houston (42-18)
• Lake Elsinore, California – UC Santa Barbara (40-15-1)
• Los Angeles, California – UCLA (42-14)
• Louisville, Kentucky – Louisville (43-16)
• Nashville, Tennessee – Vanderbilt (*42-18)
• Springfield, Missouri – Missouri State (45-10)
• Stillwater, Oklahoma – Oklahoma State (37-18)
• Tallahassee, Florida – Florida State (41-19)
Let's think out loud for a bit and see what we come up with....
1. The over-arching theme this year is that the selection committee has a hard slant/bias for small school teams. Witness DBU, Missouri State & UCSB all as hosts for the first time in school history. Power 5 schools will not get preferential treatment this year. In fact, I could make a logical case that the committee is liable to place teams with a bias in favor of smaller schools. In the interest of brevity, I won't get into detail, but this isn't tinfoil hat stuff.
2. With #1 in mind, the committee would be reticent to send Texas to Dallas as a #2 or #3 seed in DBU's Regional. If they're trying to "help" smaller schools, then they'll steer UT's postseason rep away.
3. Texas won't be in Stillwater or Fort Worth because of conference affiliation.
4. That leaves Houston/UofH & College Station/A&M
- Houston: Staying with #1 makes Houston less likely. Throw in the fact that it's easier/cheaper for the committee to "ship" a team to Houston than College Station.
- College Station: Folks like the Selection committee, football bowl committee, or anyone out-of-touch thinks it's a marketing/ticket sales coup to have Texas and A&M play. I'm not sure if the fact that the games were wildly popular in the 2014 Regional helps/confirms, or hurts/don't want a repeat. Of the Texas-based Regionals, I'll call College Station as the most likely destination.
5. If you buy 1-4, then playing in Texas may not be as likely as you'd think. The Baton Rouge regional is next closest geographically. Shipping UT to Baton Rouge also plays directly into #1 because it automatically eliminates one of the most storied programs from contention. LSU is going to be a high national seed. The committee could claim they're doing them a favor by making underachieving Texas the No. 2 seed in Baton Rouge. IMO, this is the most likely scenario that no one is talking about.
6. UCSB was a surprise choice, plus they're "hosting" ~200 miles from campus. My guess is they'll make Oregon State the No. 2 there, making it an unlikely destination for UT.
7. There are no host sites in the SE US (NC, SC, GA, AL). That's historic/significant. It also makes it probable that the 3 Florida regionala & Nashville are going to fill up quickly - especially since the SEC/ACC affiliation makes it tricky.
8. That leaves:
- Springfield, Missouri – Missouri State: Courtesy of #1, it's unlikely.
- Louisville, Kentucky – Louisville
- Fullerton, California – Cal State Fullerton: Garrido's former team? The marketing folks would love it.
- Champaign, Illinois – Illinois: Another former team of Garrido, plus midwest/Great Lakes baseball isn't good. Plus they can't have Big Ten tourney champ Michigan here.
9. The X-factor in this is if Garrido is absolutely planning to retire. He is so beloved by the sport that he could call in a favor and get any Regional he asks for if he pulls the, "it's my last go-round" card.