Looking at the bubble

[utisdabomb12]

These are the teams on the bubble and where I think they finish (just a guess). The bubble is going to be messy, because a lot of the teams vying for a bid are going to lose some games down the stretch. Most of these teams probably wouldn't make the tournament in certain years, but somebody has to get in. 


Georgia (currently 16-9, 40 in the Kenpom). @Alabama, @Ole Miss, Missouri, Kentucky, @Auburn. They finish 3-2 or 2-3. 

LSU (currently 18-8, 34 in the Kenpom). Florida, @Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee, @Arkansas. They finish 3-2 or 4-1. 

Stanford (currently 16-9, 35 in the KenPom). Cal, Oregon State, Oregon, @Arizona State, @Arizona. They 3-2 or 4-1. 

Colorado State (currently 21-5, 68 in the KenPom). @Fresno State, Air Force, San Jose State, @Nevada, @Utah State. They finish 3-2 or 4-1. 

UCLA (currently 16-10, 46 in the KenPom). @Arizona State, @Arizona, Washington, Washington State, USC. They finish 3-2 or 4-1. 

Illinois (currently 17-9, 57 in the KenPom). Michigan State, @Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, @Purdue. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

NC State (currently 15-11, 42 in the KenPom). Virginia Tech, @North Carolina, @Boston College, @Clemson, Syracuse. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

Tulsa (currently 17-7, 79 in the Kenpom). East Carolina, Temple, Tulane, @Memphis, Cinci, @SMU. They finish 3-3 or 4-2. 

Boise State (currently 18-7, 55 in the KenPom). @UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, @San Diego State, @San Jose State, Fresno State. They finish 3-3 or 4-2. 

Purdue (currently 17-9, 51 in the KenPom). @Indiana, Rutgers, @Ohio State, @Michigan State, Illinois. They finish 1-4 or 2-3. 

Oregon (currently 18-8, 74 in the KenPom). Colorado, Utah, @Cal, @Stanford, @Oregon State. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

Miami (currently 16-9, 61 in the Kenpom). V-Tech. @Louisville, Florida State, North Carolina, @Pitt, @Virginia Tech. They finish 3-3 or 4-2. 

Davidson (currently 17-6, 38 in the KenPom). @George Washington, Fordham, @Rhode Island, George Washington, VCU, @Duquesne. They finish 4-2 or 5-1. 

Old Dominion (currently 18-6, 89 in the KenPom). Southern Miss,LA Tech, @Rice, @North Texas, Marshall, Western Kentucky. They finish 5-1 or 6-0. 

BYU (currently 20-8, 31 in the KenPom). San Diego, @Portland, @Gonzaga. They finish 1-2 or 2-1. 

UMASS (currently 16-9, 100 in the KenPom). @Rhode Island, @VCU, Saint Joseph's, Fordham, Richmond, @George Washington. They finish 3-3 or 4-2. 

Texas A&M (currently 18-7, 49 in the KenPom) @South Carolina, @Arkansas, Auburn, @Florida, Alabama. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

St. Johns (currently 17-9, 39 in the KenPom). Seton Hall, Xavier, Georgetown, @Marquette, @Villanova. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

Cincinnati (currently 17-8, 44 in the KenPom). Xavier, @Houston, UCF, @Tulane, @Tulsa, Memphis. They finish 3-3 or 4-2. 

Temple (currently 19-7, 47 in the KenPom). @SMU, @Tulsa, Houston @East Carolina, UCONN. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

Iowa (currently 15-10, 36 in the KenPom). Rutgers, @Nebraska, Illinois, @Penn State, @Indiana, Northwestern. They finish 4-2 or 5-1. 

Xavier (currently 16-10, 27 in the KenPom). @Cinci, Butler, @St. Johns, Villanova, @Creighton. They finish 2-3 or 3-2. 

Ole Miss (currently 17-8, 30 in the KenPom). @Miss. State, Tenn, Georgia, @LSU, @Alabama, Vandy. They finish 3-3 or 4-2. 

Dayton (currently 19-5, 32 in the KenPom). Saint Joseph's, @Duquesne, George Mason, @VCU, Rhode Island, @La Salle. They finish 4-2 or 5-1. 

Michigan State (currently 18-8, 21 in the KenPom). @Illinois, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, Purdue, @Indiana. They finish 2-3 or 3-2.

 

[utisdabomb12]

UCLA lost to Arizona State tonight. UCLA's season probably rides on Saturday. They have to beat Arizona on the road or they aren't making the tournament. 

UMASS lost to Rhode Island tonight. Stick a fork in UMASS. 

Xavier beat Cincinnati on the road tonight. Xavier probably solidified its tournament birth. Cincinnati is probably on the outside looking in now. 

Tulsa beat East Carolina at home tonight. That was expected. Tough stretch coming up for Tulsa against Temple, Tulane, Memphis, Cincinnati, and SMU. They probably need to go 4-1 during that stretch to make the tournament, I don't think that's possible. 

Miami beat Virginia Tech at home tonight. That was expected. Miami still has a good bit of work to do, but it didn't stub its toe tonight. 

Davidson beat George Washington on the road. That certainly helps Davidson's resume. You can stick a fork in George Washington now. 

Bowling Green lost a bad one tonight at home against Miami of Ohio. They better win the MAC because I don't think they will get an at large bid now. 

Minnesota lost at home tonight to Northwestern. Minnesota was a long shot but stick a fork in them now. 

Colorado State beat Fresno State on the road tonight. Colorado State looks to be in the tournament at the moment. 

Boise State beat UNLV on the road tonight. That helps Boise State, but they are still on the outside looking in. 

 

[Juan]

I watched the end of Duke/UNC last night

Went OT -- Pretty fun stuff

 

[utisdabomb12]

I watched the end of Duke/UNC last night

Went OT -- Pretty fun stuff

Yep. Good game. 

North Carolina is a good example of the lack of disparity between teams. North Carolina is projected as a #3 seed in a lot of brackets and there really isn't much difference between their resume and say a #9 or #10 seed. Crazy year in basketball. 

North Carolina is now 18-8. They have a couple good wins, Ohio State and Louisville (UCLA and Davidson are decent but not great wins). They've lost to all pretty good teams in Butler, Iowa, Kentucky, ND, Louisville, Virginia, Pitt and Duke. 

Now compare that with Texas. Texas is 17-9. Texas has two pretty good wins against West Virginia and Iowa (a couple decent but not great wins against K-State and TCU). TCU is actually not that bad in terms of RPI when you look at what they did in nonconference. Texas has lost to all pretty good teams Ok. State X2, OU X2, Kansas, Stanford, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Baylor. 

There really isn't a huge difference between the resumes. Picking seeds will be tough this year. 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

I don't envy the committee this year. They are going to have to pick the best bad teams, and they'll get hammered for it because there will be at least 5-6 other teams with similar resumes that get left out.

 

[streettopeschel]

FWIW, Lunardi's updated Bracketology has us in the dreaded 8/9 game vs Ole Miss. Winner would get UVA. And in a clear example of Big 12 bias, he has 7 of the ten teams making the tourny.

 

[utisdabomb12]

FWIW, Lunardi's updated Bracketology has us in the dreaded 8/9 game vs Ole Miss. Winner would get UVA. And in a clear example of Big 12 bias, he has 7 of the ten teams making the tourny.

I actually wouldn't mind that draw. Out of the 1s, Virginia would probably be the team I would want to draw. Ole Miss isn't very good, TCU put a whooping on them. The only reason Ole Miss is even in the mix is because the SEC is terrible. 

If Texas would just get their crap together and go on a little run here I really think we could still get a 6 seed. If Texas finished 4-1 and with a Big 12 tournament win, I would not be surprised if we got a 6 seed. Like I said above, there isn't much disparity between 3 and even 10 seeds. With wins against teams like Iowa State, WV, Baylor or Kansas we would get a significant RPI boost. 

 

[utisdabomb12]

Geez, the fact that the last 4 byes in Lunardi's bracket are Cincinnati, LSU, UCLA and Illinois tells you how bad the bubble is this year. Those aren't even the last 4 in, and those 4 wouldn't make the tournament in most years. 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

The field should be cutoff at about 58 instead of 68.

 

[utisdabomb12]

The field should be cutoff at about 58 instead of 68.

Yep.