Preseason Playoff peek

[hookemhorb]

This week I'll take a quick peek at the AP top 10 teams and comment on their chances of making the playoffs. I'll review the teams at 11-20 next week.

Let's look at the Preseason top 10 from the AP poll. In theory, these 10 teams should make the playoffs, so let's take a quick look at them and I'll make a vague prediction as to making the playoffs.

We have #1 Ohio State, #2 Oregon and #8 Indiana from the Big 10. Ohio State has the tougher schedule and depending on how they fare against Texas, they may not make the playoffs. They have to travel to Texas and Indiana but get Oregon at home. What makes their schedule especially tough is they play Indiana (away), USC (away) and then get Oregon at home. USC can be tough at home, but they will be in the middle of their tough schedule when they come home to take on Indiana so who knows. Ohio State gets Michigan at home but as a rivalry game they have the edge but anything can happen. I see Ohio State with 2 losses but make the playoffs. It's not out of the realm they could have a 3rd loss. They would be out of the playoffs then. I'm not quite ready to pencil them into the playoffs.

Oregon definitely has an easier schedule. They do travel to USC and Ohio State but those are the only tough away games they have. They get Washington and Michigan at home. A 1 loss Oregon makes the playoffs. Even if they stumble and lose a 2nd game they will make it. We can pencil them in.

Indiana is another team you can pencil into the playoffs. They are the reigning champs with a weak schedule. Besides Ohio State at home, they have to travel to Michigan and Washington. Both winnable games.

Now let's move on to Norte Dame and Miami. Neither team has a tough schedule. The toughest game is that they play each other. I can see one of them going undefeated while the other takes 1 loss. Pencil them into the playoffs.

That leaves 5 SEC teams in the top 10. Let's take them in order.

Georgia is the reigning SEC champs and until someone beats them they will continue to be the SEC champs. They have 0uSux at home and play 'Bama and Ole Miss on the road. They may take a loss but I don't really see them missing the playoffs barring injuries to key players. Pencil them in.

Texas is next. Their schedule is too tough for them to go undefeated. If they can survive this brutal schedule with 2 losses, they make it into the playoffs. 3 losses and they are out. The key to both Ohio State and Texas's playoff hopes is to win the game they face off in the 2nd week. Loser has a tough road ahead to make the playoffs. I'm not sure I can pencil in this team into the playoffs. 1 key injury and it could all come tumbling down.

The aggies are next on the top 10 at number 8. Not the toughest schedule but they do have to travel to LSU, 'Bama and 0uSux. They get Texas at home. With an experienced QB, they should win most of those games. A 2 loss aggie team might not make the playoffs. It really depends on who beats who in the SEC. I have a feeling only 1 Texas SEC team will make the playoffs. Can't pencil these guys in.

Ole Miss is next at number 9. They will be riding the shoulders of QB Chambliss. They have road games at Florida, Texas and 0uSux and home games with LSU and Georgia. Are they really that good? We'll find out. IMHO, they aren't. No playoffs for the Rebels.

0uSux is number 10. They too have a tough schedule considering their offense is in question. The play Michigan in week 2. This will tell us a lot about this team. Can they score enough to win games? Relying on defense is not a formula for making the college playoffs. They play Michigan, George and Florida on the road and get Ole Miss and the aggies at home plus Texas in Dallas. Without a good offense this team is a middle tier SEC team. No playoffs for the sooners. Cue 0uSux kid crying .gif.

So out of the top 10, I'd pencil in 5 teams into the playoffs: Indiana, Oregon, Miami, Norte Dame and Georgia. Ohio State and both Texas teams are on the bubble. Too many variables for me to pencil into the playoffs at this point. I'm scrubbing Ole Miss and 0uSux out of the playoffs.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

This week I'll take a quick peek at the AP top 10 teams and comment on their chances of making the playoffs. I'll review the teams at 11-20 next week.

Let's look at the Preseason top 10 from the AP poll. In theory, these 10 teams should make the playoffs, so let's take a quick look at them and I'll make a vague prediction as to making the playoffs.

We have #1 Ohio State, #2 Oregon and #8 Indiana from the Big 10. Ohio State has the tougher schedule and depending on how they fare against Texas, they may not make the playoffs. They have to travel to Texas and Indiana but get Oregon at home. What makes their schedule especially tough is they play Indiana (away), USC (away) and then get Oregon at home. USC can be tough at home, but they will be in the middle of their tough schedule when they come home to take on Indiana so who knows. Ohio State gets Michigan at home but as a rivalry game they have the edge but anything can happen. I see Ohio State with 2 losses but make the playoffs. It's not out of the realm they could have a 3rd loss. They would be out of the playoffs then. I'm not quite ready to pencil them into the playoffs.

Oregon definitely has an easier schedule. They do travel to USC and Ohio State but those are the only tough away games they have. They get Washington and Michigan at home. A 1 loss Oregon makes the playoffs. Even if they stumble and lose a 2nd game they will make it. We can pencil them in.

Indiana is another team you can pencil into the playoffs. They are the reigning champs with a weak schedule. Besides Ohio State at home, they have to travel to Michigan and Washington. Both winnable games.

Now let's move on to Norte Dame and Miami. Neither team has a tough schedule. The toughest game is that they play each other. I can see one of them going undefeated while the other takes 1 loss. Pencil them into the playoffs.

That leaves 5 SEC teams in the top 10. Let's take them in order.

Georgia is the reigning SEC champs and until someone beats them they will continue to be the SEC champs. They have 0uSux at home and play 'Bama and Ole Miss on the road. They may take a loss but I don't really see them missing the playoffs barring injuries to key players. Pencil them in.

Texas is next. Their schedule is too tough for them to go undefeated. If they can survive this brutal schedule with 2 losses, they make it into the playoffs. 3 losses and they are out. The key to both Ohio State and Texas's playoff hopes is to win the game they face off in the 2nd week. Loser has a tough road ahead to make the playoffs. I'm not sure I can pencil in this team into the playoffs. 1 key injury and it could all come tumbling down.

The aggies are next on the top 10 at number 8. Not the toughest schedule but they do have to travel to LSU, 'Bama and 0uSux. They get Texas at home. With an experienced QB, they should win most of those games. A 2 loss aggie team might not make the playoffs. It really depends on who beats who in the SEC. I have a feeling only 1 Texas SEC team will make the playoffs. Can't pencil these guys in.

Ole Miss is next at number 9. They will be riding the shoulders of QB Chambliss. They have road games at Florida, Texas and 0uSux and home games with LSU and Georgia. Are they really that good? We'll find out. IMHO, they aren't. No playoffs for the Rebels.

0uSux is number 10. They too have a tough schedule considering their offense is in question. The play Michigan in week 2. This will tell us a lot about this team. Can they score enough to win games? Relying on defense is not a formula for making the college playoffs. They play Michigan, George and Florida on the road and get Ole Miss and the aggies at home plus Texas in Dallas. Without a good offense this team is a middle tier SEC team. No playoffs for the sooners. Cue 0uSux kid crying .gif.

So out of the top 10, I'd pencil in 5 teams into the playoffs: Indiana, Oregon, Miami, Norte Dame and Georgia. Ohio State and both Texas teams are on the bubble. Too many variables for me to pencil into the playoffs at this point. I'm scrubbing Ole Miss and 0uSux out of the playoffs.

Just curious, why do you think OU has no offense?

Mateer is back and healthy.

 

[hookemhorb]

Just curious, why do you think OU has no offense?

Mateer is back and healthy.

Preseason and all, I'm a skeptic until I see actual game play/stats. I'm unconvinced that 0uSux will have a good enough offense to overcome their schedule. Week 2 will tell us a lot about them. If they score 35+ points, I may become a believer. Until then, they will not make the playoffs (in my opinion).

 

[hookemhorb]

OK. Let's review the teams in AP poll ranked 11-20 and see who has a chance of making the playoffs.

Let's start with the SEC this week. We have LSU at #11, 'Bama at #13 and Tennessee at #20.

LSU plays Ole Miss in week 3 on the road and then comes home to take on the aggies in week 4. They need to win 1 of these games if they are going to make the playoffs because in November they have 'Bama and Texas at home followed by the Volunteers on the road. A 2 loss Tiger team makes the playoffs but 3 losses and they are out. I'm not penciling them in.

Alabama at #13 has a better chance of making the playoffs in my opinion. They have a 4 game stretch that will define their season. They play Georgia at home, go on the road to take on the Volunteers, come home to play the aggies and hit the road against LSU. I like their chances of coming out at least 2-2 in that stretch. I'm penciling them in.

Tennessee is at #20 and starting a freshman QB. I don't know why they didn't get a quality starter in the portal. I firmly believe unless you have a monster D, you need an experienced QB to do well in college football unless you're in a subpar conference. Tennessee is not in a subpar conference. Forgetaboutit.

Let's move on to the Big 10. We have USC at #14, Michigan at #16 followed by Washington and Penn State. The Trojans can be dangerous at home. They have Oregon, Washington and Ohio State at home but must travel to Penn State and Indiana. I don't think they can go 3-2 in those five games. 3 losses won't make the playoffs. They are out.

A 4th team from the Big 10 could make the playoffs, but Michigan has a tough schedule to be that team. They get 0uSux in the 2nd week. This is the game that will make or break them. They have Iowa, Penn State and Indiana at home and travel to Oregon and Ohio State in November. Sorry Wolverine fans, I can easily spot 3 losses here. See ya!

Washington comes in at #17. They play Indiana (home) and Oregon (away) at the end of the season. They have a capable QB in Williams. But has he improved enough to show up in big games. The Huskies have the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions at home but have to travel to USC. They have to win these winnable games if they have playoff hopes. I'm putting them on the bubble. I think they can but I don't really follow the west coast teams.

Penn State is the last Big 10 team in the top 20. Last but not least. They have the best chance of being the fourth Big 10 team to make the playoffs. Their schedule gives them the best opportunity. They get the Trojans at home and have to travel to the Big House and Washington. The big question mark, is Matt Campbell ready for the big leagues? It's one thing to be at Iowa State where expectations aren't too high but at Penn State the competition and expectations are at another level. Let's see how he does. He at least brough his Cyclone QB Rocco Becht with him. They both can make a splash if they can be the 4th team. I'm putting them on the bubble. They need to win 1 of those 3 games and a 2 loss Nittany Lion team makes the playoffs.

The SMU Mustangs are the lone ACC team that is ranked 11-20 in the AP's poll. They have their QB back and with a favorable schedule they have a good chance to make the playoffs. They open with Florida State so they have to be ready early. Their toughest games are Louisville and Notre Dame. Both are away. Their schedule is light but they have a tough away schedule in that the teams are tough or they have really travel--Florida State, Syracuse and Stanford. A 2 loss Mustang team makes the playoffs if the Big 10 stumbles and only gets 3 teams in. A 3 loss, even if one of the losses is the conference championship game, is out. They have their work cut out for them. I'm putting them on the bubble.

That just leaves the Big 12--the cupcake league. There are only 2 teams ranked in the AP top 20--Texas Tech and BYU. Tech has an easy schedule with only Houston at home as the only ranked team. They can easily go undefeated. Even if they stumble once, they will make the playoffs based on their record.

BYU is at #14. They have a tougher schedule. They play Notre Dame at home and have to travel to Utah. I'm guessing the winner of the Utah-BYU game plays Tech for the conference title. I don't see either of them beating Tech so we are probably looking at a 2 loss Utah team.

So where does that leave the Big 12? It's conceivable that they get 2 teams into the playoffs. Utah is ranked 21 and only plays a ranked Houston and BYU. Assuming BYU loses to Notre Dame, Utah could go 11-1 and not play in the CCG if they lose to BYU. Until the committee seriously considers strength of schedule instead of record, I see 2 Big 12 teams making it into the playoffs. That would be a shame. It's bad enough we have to have a group of 5 team but adding 2 from the cupcake league. This isn't a playoff, it's a pageant show.

 

[Baron]

OK. Let's review the teams in AP poll ranked 11-20 and see who has a chance of making the playoffs.

Let's start with the SEC this week. We have LSU at #11, 'Bama at #13 and Tennessee at #20.

LSU plays Ole Miss in week 3 on the road and then comes home to take on the aggies in week 4. They need to win 1 of these games if they are going to make the playoffs because in November they have 'Bama and Texas at home followed by the Volunteers on the road. A 2 loss Tiger team makes the playoffs but 3 losses and they are out. I'm not penciling them in.

Alabama at #13 has a better chance of making the playoffs in my opinion. They have a 4 game stretch that will define their season. They play Georgia at home, go on the road to take on the Volunteers, come home to play the aggies and hit the road against LSU. I like their chances of coming out at least 2-2 in that stretch. I'm penciling them in.

Tennessee is at #20 and starting a freshman QB. I don't know why they didn't get a quality starter in the portal. I firmly believe unless you have a monster D, you need an experienced QB to do well in college football unless you're in a subpar conference. Tennessee is not in a subpar conference. Forgetaboutit.

Let's move on to the Big 10. We have USC at #14, Michigan at #16 followed by Washington and Penn State. The Trojans can be dangerous at home. They have Oregon, Washington and Ohio State at home but must travel to Penn State and Indiana. I don't think they can go 3-2 in those five games. 3 losses won't make the playoffs. They are out.

A 4th team from the Big 10 could make the playoffs, but Michigan has a tough schedule to be that team. They get 0uSux in the 2nd week. This is the game that will make or break them. They have Iowa, Penn State and Indiana at home and travel to Oregon and Ohio State in November. Sorry Wolverine fans, I can easily spot 3 losses here. See ya!

Washington comes in at #17. They play Indiana (home) and Oregon (away) at the end of the season. They have a capable QB in Williams. But has he improved enough to show up in big games. The Huskies have the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions at home but have to travel to USC. They have to win these winnable games if they have playoff hopes. I'm putting them on the bubble. I think they can but I don't really follow the west coast teams.

Penn State is the last Big 10 team in the top 20. Last but not least. They have the best chance of being the fourth Big 10 team to make the playoffs. Their schedule gives them the best opportunity. They get the Trojans at home and have to travel to the Big House and Washington. The big question mark, is Matt Campbell ready for the big leagues? It's one thing to be at Iowa State where expectations aren't too high but at Penn State the competition and expectations are at another level. Let's see how he does. He at least brough his Cyclone QB Rocco Becht with him. They both can make a splash if they can be the 4th team. I'm putting them on the bubble. They need to win 1 of those 3 games and a 2 loss Nittany Lion team makes the playoffs.

The SMU Mustangs are the lone ACC team that is ranked 11-20 in the AP's poll. They have their QB back and with a favorable schedule they have a good chance to make the playoffs. They open with Florida State so they have to be ready early. Their toughest games are Louisville and Notre Dame. Both are away. Their schedule is light but they have a tough away schedule in that the teams are tough or they have really travel--Florida State, Syracuse and Stanford. A 2 loss Mustang team makes the playoffs if the Big 10 stumbles and only gets 3 teams in. A 3 loss, even if one of the losses is the conference championship game, is out. They have their work cut out for them. I'm putting them on the bubble.

That just leaves the Big 12--the cupcake league. There are only 2 teams ranked in the AP top 20--Texas Tech and BYU. Tech has an easy schedule with only Houston at home as the only ranked team. They can easily go undefeated. Even if they stumble once, they will make the playoffs based on their record.

BYU is at #14. They have a tougher schedule. They play Notre Dame at home and have to travel to Utah. I'm guessing the winner of the Utah-BYU game plays Tech for the conference title. I don't see either of them beating Tech so we are probably looking at a 2 loss Utah team.

So where does that leave the Big 12? It's conceivable that they get 2 teams into the playoffs. Utah is ranked 21 and only plays a ranked Houston and BYU. Assuming BYU loses to Notre Dame, Utah could go 11-1 and not play in the CCG if they lose to BYU. Until the committee seriously considers strength of schedule instead of record, I see 2 Big 12 teams making it into the playoffs. That would be a shame. It's bad enough we have to have a group of 5 team but adding 2 from the cupcake league. This isn't a playoff, it's a pageant show.

I really enjoyed your take. Thanks.

I have the following forecasted regular season records.
Ohio St. 10-2 with losses to Texas and Indiana
Oregon 11-1 with a loss at Ohio St.
UGa 11-1 At Alabama will be tough. I think Keelon Russell was a steal in the 2025 recruiting cycle and he will show everyone this season with a win against UGa.
ND 12-0 I just don't see a loss on this schedule. Maybe BYU or Miami?
Texas 10-2 The schedule is just too tough. I see losses against ousux and LSU.
Indiana 11-1 The only game that I see as tough on their schedule is Miami. It's payback time.
Miami 11-1 South Bend is a tough place to play.
aggy 8-4 I just don't have any confidence in Reed. Losses to LSU, ousux, Texas and Bama
Ole Miss - 8-4 New coach and major turnover is a bad recipe.
ousux - 9-3 Losses at Michigan, at UGa and an upset at Florida.
LSU 9-3
Alabama 10-2
Tceh 11-1
BYU 10-2