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Baseball preview, part II (The Offense)

Matt Cotcher

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submitted on Today, 04:41 PM in Texas Longhorns Baseball By Matt Cotcher   
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Part I of the HornSports season preview for Texas baseball focused on positional starters and team defense. Returning players plus a pitching staff that is the envy of coaches nationwide combine to put the Longhorns in the Top 10 of all six major, preseason polls.

But Augie Garrido and the Horns aren't content with a lofty preseason ranking. In what figures to be an extremely competitive Big 12, in the postseason, and in Omaha what can vault Texas from Top 10 status to ‘last team standing’ is the offense.

Much like seasons past, team defense and pitching will be consistent strengths in 2015. Where this ball club needs to continue to improve is at the plate.

Augie Garrido is still the head baseball coach, so “improvement” doesn't mean the team needs to hit more homeruns – the Horns will still employ Garrido’s preferred style of offense that maximizes the pressure on the opposing team’s defense and pitching. In 2015, where Texas needs to make offensive improvement is in production.

No matter what happens in the batter’s box, Garrido still wants to win games with pitching and defense. Although the starting lineup in Part I reflects that priority, fans can reasonably expect the offense to continue to improve from the low point in 2013.

In 2014 the team batting average only improved to .263 (up from .260) - the key to last year’s offense was in production. Quality at bats, productive outs, and timely hitting all play a role in scoring more runs, and where that readily shows up in the stat book is on-base percentage.

In 2013, Texas only managed a .314 OBP, but raised that to .356 in 2014. Ultimately, the overall increase in production translated to 299 runs scored – or 4.5 runs per game (compared to 2013’s 3.8 runs per game).
While another .7 run per game increase is not realistic this season, if the Longhorns continue to improve at a rate anywhere near last season, they will be very tough to beat. With a deep and talented pitching staff and an exceptional defense (based on the middle infielders), if Texas averages more than 5.0 runs per game, the Horns will be a Top 3 national seed in the postseason.
 

Designated Hitter – Candidates to start the season include Patrick Mathis, Michael McCann, and Taylor Stell

Patrick Mathis (L)

A true freshman from Venus High School, Mathis will be the first substitute off bench if an outfield starter is injured. At the plate Mathis has plus offensive potential for both power and average (.493/4 HR/25 RBI as a senior - .561/11 HR/40 RBI as a junior).


Michael McCann ( R)

While waiting his turn at catcher, the true freshman from Round Rock (Cedar Ridge HS) will contribute earlier on offense. McCann uses his lower body well and brings excellent plate discipline for his age.


Taylor Stell ( R) 

After missing 2014 due to injury (knee), the redshirt junior has experience to his advantage over Mathis and McCann. Stell has very good speed for being 6’4” – when he’s not in the DH spot, he’ll be active as a PH/PR.

Here is the batting order Garrido plans to use for the opening series against Rice:

CF – Zane Gurwitz – R
RF – Collin Shaw – L
SS – C.J Hinojosa – R
2B – Brooks Marlow – L/R
C – Tres Barrera – R
3B – Bret Boswell – L/R
LF – Ben Johnson – R
DH – Mathis/McCann/Stell
1B – Jones – R

  • The right/left alternation all the way through the order is a luxury Texas coaches have not had in the recent past.

  • A deeper bench, and options at DH mean more daily and in-game managerial decisions for Garrido.

  • Seeing a true freshman in the 9-hole is not surprising. Jones has the stick to bat higher, but the coaches will keep pressure low to start the season.

  • This lineup isn’t going to hit a lot of homeruns, but there is extra-base power up and down the card. I expect this team to square up a lot of balls.

  • Speed at the bottom of the order, and Marlow batting 4th is additional evidence that the coaches are prioritizing runs over homeruns.







 
No Cantu as DH candidate?

Nice write up.

 
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No Cantu as DH candidate?

Nice write up.

This season? Yes.

This weekend? Probably not.

Like Jones down at the bottom of the order, Texas will protect Cantu with veterans. I expect he'll be allowed to develop slowly at the plate (as DH), or as a midweek catcher. I don't think, especially in non-conference play that you'll see Cantu in both roles.

With Barrera at C and several good options at DH, the coaches choice of putting Cantu behind the plate or at DH will be an early signal for how they want him to contribute later in the season.

 
If I'm a betting man, I would say we will see Cantu mixed in this weekend at DH, and maybe catch one on Sat. Great way for the kid to get a taste of a competitive series out of the chute. He's a gamer so I think he is ready for prime time.

 
Hmm Matt I think I said 5 runs per game gets them a top two but I'll defer to you :-)

I like CJ in the 3 hole. He has great gap pop and good bat control. I would like to see more hit and run out of Shaw in the 2 hole this year.

 
Hmm Matt I think I said 5 runs per game gets them a top two but I'll defer to you :-)

I said Top 3 seed because there are 4-5 teams poised to have really strong resumes this year. If the Horns are No. 3 instead of No. 2, it will only be because the committee is ga-ga over two heavyweights.

 
College Baseball: New ball should boost offense

The change on the baseball is relatively subtle: The seams have been lowered so it's more like the one used at the professional level. Researchers found that the flat-seam ball could travel as much as 20 feet farther in the air than the previous raised-seam ball. On the practice field, coaches and players are seeing the same results. Almost all expect at least a modest boost in offense.
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/baseball/new-ball-should-aid-hitters-1.1268771
 
Did anyone else see the espn power rankings? We're not even in the top 25? wtf?

 
I put about as much stock in ESPN College Baseball coverage as I do my dog's, with a slight edge to my dog, as she will actually sit down and watch a game with me.

 
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I put about as much stock in ESPN College Baseball coverage as I do my dog's, with a slight edge to my dog, as she will actually sit down and watch a game with me.
I don't give them much credit either, I just found it strange that we are top 10 in the major polls and not even ranked in ESPN's.

 
Is anyone aware if there TV coverage for this weekend or just that Mickey Mouse Owlvision?
CBSi/College Sports Live is streaming the game. $9.95 for a month's access.
 
Have not seen it posted anywhere - who pitches for UT in the opener?  What about the pitchers for the series, anyone know that?

 
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