Ohio State and Texas enter the CFP Semifinals coming off of very different games in the quarterfinals. Ohio State smashed Tennessee in the first round 42-17 and followed that up with a 41-21 dismantling of Oregon in the quarterfinals. Neither of those games were as close as the score indicated. Ohio State jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against the Volunteers and a 34-0 lead against the Ducks in the second quarter. That is impressive, especially when you consider Oregon beat Ohio State in October and entered the CFP 13-0 and the #1 seed.
Texas on the other hand, has learned all about “survive and advance” in the CFP. In the first round, the Longhorns got out to a good start and led Clemson 28-10 at halftime. After going up 31-10, Dabo Swinney’s team stormed back to trim the score to 31-24, which ultimately was not enough. The story was similar for Texas against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Texas scored two quick touchdowns after an opening drive field goal by Arizona State, and went into halftime up 17-3. The feeling was the Longhorns should have been up by more. That feeling was fair and the lack of finishing drives nearly cost Texas. After blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead, the Longhorns needed heroics in OT to beat Arizona State. Down seven, Texas faced a 4th and 13 and Quinn Ewers and wide receiver Matthew Golden bailed out the Longhorns. The Longhorns prevailed in double OT but will need a much better performance against Ohio State.
Can Texas Establish the Run?
The Texas run game has been a major talking point when discussing the 2024 Texas offense and and team as a whole. Starting running back CJ Baxter was lost for the season in fall camp, which has proven to be a tremendous loss. For most of the season the run game has done its job for Texas, but not always. In two of the last three games, the Longhorns have struggled to get production from the run game. Against Georgia in the SEC Championship, Texas had just 31 yards on 28 attempts. They followed that up against Clemson with nearly 300 yards on the ground with 48 attempts, before struggling against Arizona State with 53 yards on 30 attempts.
There is one common denominator in the Georgia and Arizona State game. That denominator is Texas did not have all of their starting offensive linemen in those games. Left tackle Kelvin Banks missed the Georgia game and right tackle Cameron Williams missed the Arizona State game. Banks and Williams are both projected as first round picks in the upcoming NFL draft. The good news is Banks has played the last two games and the expectation is that Williams will be back against Ohio State. The offensive line needs to play its best game of the year in order for Tre Wisner and the Texas rushing attack to get back on track. A one dimensional Texas offense will not beat Ohio State, plain and simple.
The Second Half will Tell the Story
Third quarter woes have been an issue all year for Texas. Since the Florida game on November 9th, the Longhorns have not scored more than three points in the third quarter. That includes zero third quarter points against Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia and Arizona State. Frankly it’s amazing Texas only lost one of those games. Should they continue that pattern they have a slim chance against Ohio State. Sarkisian and company must figure out why they stall in the third quarter and resolve it.
Luckily for Texas, the second half has not necessarily been Ohio State’s strength of late either. In the last three games against Michigan, Tennessee & Oregon they only won the second half against Tennessee. Oregon got down so much early on that it was pretty much over by halftime. The second half against Michigan was not ideal either for the Buckeyes. They did not score in the second half which led to the Wolverines winning their fourth-straight game against Ohio State. The Ohio State offense looks improved since that loss, but the third quarter will likely tell us who will win this game. Whichever team wins will need to play 60 minutes of good football, not just 30 or 45 minutes.
